Beijing demands Taiwan be reunified with China. After China's Jiang visit in Nov 1997, Clinton urged Taipei to get on with negotiations with China. Taiwan declares itself a sovereign democracy. The last time Taiwan held national elections (1996) - China fired missiles into Taiwan's waters, assembled a huge military operation and disrupted commerce. In reaction, the US sent carriers. Beijing then threatened a sea of fire if the US carriers entered the strait, and further warned of nuclear missiles on Los Angeles if the US defended Taiwan too much. China now (June 98) has 13 of its 18 missiles targeted at the US.

June 4, 1998 - China President Jiang Zemin said he will seek confirmation of US pledges not to interfere in Tiawan. "The US side has very clearly pledged not to support . the independence of Taiwan or its re-admittance into international organizations." Chinese president Jiang Xemin said in a speech that the coming "liberation" of Taiwan was a "holy duty."

In response to the House resolution 411-0 demanding Beijing abandon its threat to invade Taiwan if it declared independence, China's official Xinhua news agency said "Every sovereign state has the right to take all means it deems essential, including military means, to safeguard its national sovereignty and territorial integration."

Chinese Foreign Minister on 6/22/98 said: "The president should, at an appropriate occasion, make a public statement reiterating what the U.S. has already promised on the Taiwan question . The U.S. side should also indicate it will take concrete actions to match the commitment it has made with deeds."

On 6/27/98 Taiwan denounced China for refusing to rule out military action against the island during a summit in Beijing between China's President Jiang Zemin and President Clinton. Hundreds of Taiwanese marched through Taipei to express concern over the Jiang-Clinton meeting. One banner read: ``Oppose Superpowers Invading Taiwan's Sovereignty.'' Washington cut diplomatic relations with Taiwan in 1979 in order to recognize China. But unofficial ties remain close, and Washington is bound by law to ensure Taiwan can defend itself. Mr Jiang claimed Beijing has opened several channels of communication with the Dalai Lama and said the offer for talks with the Tibetan leader was open if he first recognised Taiwan as a Chinese province.

6/29/98 Fox News reports that "President Clinton Tuesday reaffirmed a U.S. committment to one China ruled from Beijing and opposition to independence for Taiwan."

Washington Times, 7/1/98 Warrent Strobel ".Officials of the Taipei government had expressed satisfaction earlier this year with U.S. assurances that Mr. Clinton would not harm their national interests in conversations in mainland China, but were concerned that the assurances had not been made in public. Mr. Hu (Jason Hu, the foreign minister of the Republic of China in Taiwan) recalled that the United States, in its 1994 Taiwan policy review, pledged that it would work to "make Taiwan's voice be heard" in all international organizations to which it is not a member. "How does that square with shutting the door on membership?" he asked rhetorically.."

Summarized from Xcoastie post: Not only has Clinton pledged support to Taiwan but in 1996, he put thousands of US service men and women in harms way to "protect the sovereignty of Taiwan." But now, June 1998, Clinton's foreign policy favors China to the exclusion of the sovereignty of Taiwan. Parallels to Clinton foreign policy and command decisions in Somalia, Haiti, Rwanda, Cuba and Bosnia noted.

Daily Republican Tatsudo Akayama 7/1/98 ".The Clinton administration sent shock waves throughout the Pacific Rim this week when the president placed the wishes of communist leaders in Beijing ahead of established commitments with Tokyo who, at U.S. insistence, has formally recognized the Nationalist government of Taiwan as the legitimate government of China. Parris H. Chang, a Taiwan legislator told reporters '...It's wrong, morally and politically, for Clinton to collude with the communist dictatorship to restrict the future of a democratic country...Beijing is trying to manipulate the United States to isolate Taiwan diplomatically. That Clinton has fallen into that kind of trap is unfortunate. . . . U.S. policy toward Taiwan is on a slippery slope. More and more, the United States is making concessions to China without any return.' "

7/2/98 Washington Post "The outlines of a deal are beginning to emerge. China gives President Clinton air time for his speech. Mr. Clinton says what China wants to hear on Taiwan. Then, in classic Clinton fashion, the White House tries to have things both ways, denying that U.S. policy has changed when in fact it has, and not for the better. Past administrations recognized the Beijing government as the legitimate government of China and "acknowledged" China's position with regard to Taiwan. But "acknowledge" did not mean "accept." "

Fox News 7/3/98 Hong Kong: "U.S. President Clinton said on Friday he was not changing U.S. policy in any way when he stated his opposition to independence for Taiwan . Some commentators have interpreted the remarks as going beyond the previous U.S. position. .Beijing had pushed for a formal written statement reaffirming U.S. policy on Taiwan from Clinton. The administration rejected that approach because it would look like the United States was negotiating the future of democratic Taiwan with the communist government in Beijing. But officials decided Clinton could make a unilateral statement of U.S. policy. .Clinton stressed: "I didn't intend and don't believe I changed the substance of our position in anyway.'' .Taiwan's President Lee said on Thursday he was grateful to Clinton for keeping a U.S. vow to continue arming the Nationalist-ruled island. "

7/3/98 Gregg Jones Dallas Morning News ".From the outset of the American president's visit, Chinese officials have emphasized Taiwan as the top item on their agenda. The greatest fear in Taiwan is that the United States might use the nation as a bargaining chip in negotiations with China over nuclear proliferation and other strategic issues. Chi Su, a senior adviser to Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui. "President Clinton may feel like he has done nothing damaging to us, but his good intentions may be twisted by the interpretation attached to these terms in Beijing.".Polls show that fewer than 5 percent of Taiwanese favor immediate reunification with China. Although a majority of Taiwanese say they support eventual reunification with the mainland, they say China first must become a democracy with a capitalist economy."We are treated as a noncitizen in the world," said Mr. Chi, the presidential adviser. "We have no way to express ourselves on issues that affect us, all because someone claims they own us. Frustration is quite deep. People ask what have we done to deserve this?""

7/2/98 Wall Street Journal ".The bedrock of U.S. policy toward Taiwan has always been the Shanghai Communiqu‚, issued in 1972 as the two nations began their rapprochement, and affirmed in later agreements and the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979. In this document the U.S. declared that it "acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is part of China. The United States government does not challenge that position. It reaffirms its interest in a peaceful settlement of the Taiwan question by the Chinese themselves." .consider the President's language: "We don't support independence for Taiwan; or two Chinas; or one Taiwan, one China. And we don't believe that Taiwan should be a member in any organization for which statehood is a requirement." Anyone who reads English can see that this is miles beyond the careful language Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger crafted in 1972.."

The Claremont Institute Bruce Herschensohn 7/6/98 ".I hope President Clinton remembers, or at least has been reminded of, our position on Taiwan's membership in the United Nations Organization in 1971, when it was expelled from that organization. President Nixon's U.S. Ambassador to the U.N., George Bush, was the leader in trying to maintain the Republic's continuation of membership and referred to the ouster of the Republic as a "moment of infamy." President Nixon said that the United States "deeply regrets the action taken by the U.N. to deprive the Republic of China of representation in that organization.".

7/6/98 AP Barry Schweid ".Richard Bush, the top U.S. liaison official to Taiwan, was sent to Taipei to talk to President Lee Teng-hui. Lee told Bush the United States should not consult Beijing when discussing Taiwan's future. "In the future, your country should negotiate directly with us about any matters involving Taiwan,'' he said. "You don't have to and should not hold bilateral talks with the Chinese communists'' about Taiwan. .."

7/7/98 Wall Street Journal Parris Chang ".So Mr. Clinton espoused democracy and freedom in China, and then committed the U.S. to oppose the right of Taiwan, a democratic and open society, to determine its own future. That Taiwan even became an "issue" in talks with China foretold the Clinton administration's willingness to trade Taiwan's future for favor with Beijing's leadership. Mr. Clinton has given the Chinese what every previous president, Democrat or Republican, has deliberately withheld: a U.S. commitment to China's goal of one day bringing Taiwan under Beijing's control."

7/10/98 Washington Post John Pomfret "China urged Taiwan today to "face reality" and submit to holding talks on eventual reunification with China following comments from President Clinton that the United States would not support an independent Taiwan.The developments indicate that after a three-year freeze, talks could begin as early as this fall between the two sides. They also underscore the important role the United States has played in forcing Taiwan to the bargaining table."

7/10/98 China Daily Bian Hongwe ".Yuan Ming, a professor with Beijing University, said that China has always been against US arms sales to Taiwan, which is an integral part of China. China says that such arms sales harm China's peaceful unification. The renewal of the US-Japan security alliance has increased China's suspicions that such an alliance would extend to the Taiwan Straits."

7/10/98 AP Tom Raum "The Senate underscored the U.S. commitment to Taiwan in a 92-0 vote Friday that Republicans called a ``powerful signal'' repudiating President Clinton's comments during his China trip. Democrats said the resolution, repeating a U.S. pledge to help Taiwan ``maintain a sufficient self-defense capability,'' merely reaffirms existing law.."

Boston Herald 7/13/98 Reuters " China today lashed out at the U.S. Senate for a resolution supporting arch foe Taiwan, saying such measures were ``doomed to failure.'' The Xinhua news agency also hinted that the resolution threatened to undermine progress achieved by President Bill Clinton during his historic visit to China that ended this month. ``China strongly resents and is resolutely opposed to recent anti-China resolutions adopted by the U.S. Senate,'' Xinhua quoted Foreign Ministry spokesman Tang Guoqiang as saying.."

7/7/98 Pat Buchanan "A collision between the United States and China over Taiwan now seems certain. And Bill Clinton's gratuitous assertion in China that the United States opposes Taiwan's membership in any organization that requires nationhood as a condition makes it more certain..Unless communism is overthrown in China, and Taipei and Beijing freely agree to reunite, it would appear that unification, if it is to come, must come by force. And China has indicated it will go to war rather than see Taiwan go free."

7/10/98 Heritage Foundation Stephen Yates "President Clinton's statement against Taiwan's participation in international organizations makes the United States an accomplice in China's campaign to squeeze Taiwan into submission by isolating the island internationally. Nothing in the existing U.S.-China joint communiques suggests or obliges the United States to oppose Taiwan's membership in any international organization."

Boston Herald 7/13/98 Reuters " China today lashed out at the U.S. Senate for a resolution supporting arch foe Taiwan, saying such measures were ``doomed to failure.'' The Xinhua news agency also hinted that the resolution threatened to undermine progress achieved by President Bill Clinton during his historic visit to China that ended this month. ``China strongly resents and is resolutely opposed to recent anti-China resolutions adopted by the U.S. Senate,'' Xinhua quoted Foreign Ministry spokesman Tang Guoqiang as saying.."

7/15/98 Hong Kong Standard on China Foreign Ministry spokesman Tang Guoqiang who said ".``We hope that the US government will adopt effective measures to eliminate interference and prevent Congress from passing anti-China resolutions so that Sino-US relations will not be harmed.'' The US constitution entitles the government ``to adopt effective measures to prevent the Congress from passing such resolutions''."

7/17/98 Washington Times Richard Halloran "The Chinese government has wasted little time seeking to turn to advantage President Clinton's new policy on Taiwan that he enunciated during his nine- day visit to China. Despite administration disclaimers that Mr. Clinton broke no new ground, the record shows that he has become the first U.S. president to commit the United States to Beijing's concept on the fate of Taiwan, the island nation of 21 million people that considers itself to be independent but that Beijing claims is a province of China. Shortly after Mr. Clinton left China, the spokesman for the Foreign Ministry in Beijing, Tang Guoqiang, stated: "We attach great importance to these commitments." Next, the Chinese ambassador to the United Nations, Qin Huasun, wrote a stinging letter to U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan demanding that the question of Taiwan's admission to the United Nations be precluded from the agenda in the fall.."

8/5/98 Gerald Segal Wall Street Journal "In order to forestall American efforts to push them into the arms of the mainland, representatives of the Taipei government are embarking on a subtle campaign to remind the world that the Taiwanese military retains the option of completing the development of a nuclear deterrent."

Lateline News of China/Agence France Presse 8/25/98 "Taipe: Taiwan's military has finished setting up three batteries of US-made Patriotanti-ballistic missiles around the capital to counter any possible threat from the mainland, a report said on Monday.."

Lateline News of China/Reuters 8/29/98 "China on Friday denounced U.S. plans to sell missiles and anti-submarine torpedoes worth $350 million to Taiwan, warning that such moves would sabotage peaceful reunification between the two rivals. ``We demand the U.S. government strictly abide by the August 17 Sino-U.S. communique through practical action and stop any moves that violate China's sovereignty and sabotage China's peaceful reunification,'' a foreign ministry spokesman said."

South China Morning Post 10/7/98 Willy Wo-Lap Lam "China's rough timetable for the "liberation" of Taiwan is still quite a long way off: 2020, by most accounts. Yet Beijing has of late been displaying uncharacteristic confidence that the "breakaway province" can be recovered smoothly, and on its terms.. This daguozhanlue, as Chinese academics and cadres phrase it in official journals, can be stated succinctly: in global status and clout, China has achieved rough parity with the United States, and if Beijing can maintain this momentum, the Taiwan problem can be cracked well ahead of the "timetable". According to a respected foreign-affairs academic, Beijing is convinced it is fast narrowing the "power gap" with the US after the two presidential summits of October 1997 and last June. "Jiang Zemin and Bill Clinton talked as equals," he said. "This shows up what is obvious. In terms of economic, military and diplomatic influence, China is closing in on the US." ..He added that China was able to strike an "unofficial deal" with the US at the two summits. Beijing respected Washington's "spheres of influence" in the world, including Europe and the Middle East; and Beijing would not challenge a number of American strongholds in the Asia-Pacific region. In return, Washington agreed to honour China's national and diplomatic interests. And in the near term, those interests were focused on Taiwan. Subscribers to this theory of covert deals pointed to widespread speculation that during the June summit, Mr Clinton made "secret" pledges on Taiwan, including limiting the range of armaments that the US would sell to the island.."

Central News Agency 10-15-98 Flor Wang ".Justice Minister Cheng Chung-mo said on Thursday that the government is actively probing the role of mainland Chinese capital in Taiwan's year-end elections. Responding to inquiries raised by Legislator Tsai Huang-lang, Cheng said the Investigation Bureau under the Justice Ministry has gained some information regarding the issue, but that he could not divulge details because the probe has already started. Earlier this month, at an interpellation session in the Legislative Yuan, Tsai claimed that mainland Chinese capital has infiltrated the campaigns for Taiwan's legislative elections, as well as the Taipei and Kaohsiung mayoral and council elections, both slated for December, in the following ways: -- using Taiwan businessmen who travel frequently between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, by injecting mainland money via their companies; -- using brokers in cross-strait affairs to carry mainland capital to Taiwan to back certain candidates selected by the mainland authorities; -- cultivating certain candidates around the island to serve as mainland China's spin doctors.."

The Washington Times 10/16/98 James Hackett ". Meanwhile, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is carrying out a major modernization program to build up the forces needed to apply pressure on Taiwan. Beijing's cross-strait forces, always large in number, are being improved by the acquisition of modern air and naval weapons, and advanced missile technologies. Just a month after President Clinton's much ballyhooed trip to China, the State Council issued a white paper on defense that specifically refused to renounce the use of force against Taiwan. It also criticized the U.S. military alliances with Japan and South Korea, and called for an alternative power structure in the Western Pacific (presumably one dominated by Beijing). Richard Fisher of the Heritage Foundation has documented the Chinese military buildup. The naval forces that will lead an assault across the Taiwan Strait are givven high priority. Four Kilo-class attack submarines have been bought from Russia and 10 more may be on order. These advanced submarines are extremely quiet and carry modern torpedoes that pose a threat not only to Taiwan's navy but also to the U.S. 7th fleet.Perhaps the most advanced weapon system bought by China is the Russian Su-27 jet fighter that is considered better than the U.S. F-15 in some respects. Fifty have been delivered from Russia and 200 are being produced in China. The Su-27 fires the AA-11 Archer, the first helmet-sighted air-to-air missile in Asia, plus supersonic anti-ship missiles. And now the PLA wants to buy the Russian AA-12 Adder, a self- guided air-to-air missile with a range of 56 miles, which would give the mainland the ability to strike Taiwan's air defenses from well out over the Taiwan Strait..But the PLA is eager to launch more missiles into the Taiwan Strait to threaten the trade and maritime traffic on which the island nation depends. Normally cautious, the leadership in Beijing could be induced by the economic downturn to unleash the military against Taiwan, to divert public attention from domestic problems. And what better time, with a weak and compliant president in the White House? ..A White House source recently was quoted as saying, "There's never a good time for an arms sale to Taiwan," since such sales are tracked by Beijing officials. This desire to avoid anything that might upset China's communist rulers includes a continuing refusal to sell Taiwan the AIM-120 air-to-air missile it needs to defend against Russia's SU-27 with its Archer air-to-air missile. The administration's rationale for refusing the sale ---- that it might start an arms race in the region --- is patently ridiculous.."

Xinhua News Agency 10/29/98 Chinese Communist Party ".China expressed here today its strong resentment and firm opposition to the anti-China contents enshrined in two US acts passed recently by United States Congress. In a statement made by Foreign Ministry spokesman Tang Guoqiang in a regular press conference this afternoon, Tang said that these contents serve to interfere in China's internal affairs, support the Tibetan separatist elements, obstruct the normal cooperation between China and the United States in economic, trade and other fields, include Taiwan into the TMD system and continue to sell arms to Taiwan. These contents were contained in the Omnibus Appropriation Act and the 1999 Fiscal Year Department of Defense Authorization Act, which were passed recently by the US Congress. "By passing these acts, the US Congress has gravely violated the basic norms of international relations and the principles enshrined in the three Sino-US Joint Communiques, interfered in China's internal affairs, seriously hurt the feelings of the Chinese people, placed obstacles to the Chinese people's great cause of peaceful reunification of the motherland and normal exchanges and cooperation between the two countries," Tang said.."

Washington Times 11/12/98 Bill Gertz ".China is set to conduct the first flight test next month of a new mobile intercontinental ballistic missile that can reach the western United States, The Washington Times has learned. U.S. intelligence agencies reported secretly within the U.S. government last week that the initial flight test of the DF-31 ICBM will take place in December, and some U.S. officials are concerned it could be part of a new campaign of intimidation by Beijing against Taiwan. Parliamentary elections are scheduled for Dec. 5 on the island of Taiwan, which China regards as a breakaway province. The opposition Democratic Progressive Party, which seeks full independence from China, could gain seats. "The Chinese have indicated they will do something around the time of the Taiwan elections," one Pentagon official said. "We don't know what it is." In March 1996, China conducted war games near Taiwan that included short-range missile test firings near Taiwan in what U.S. officials said was an attempt to intimidate Taiwan weeks before its first presidential elections.China rarely, if ever, makes public information about its strategic nuclear weapons programs, which have been undergoing a steady modernization from older, liquid- fuel missiles to highly accurate mobile ICBMs. Besides the DF-31, China is building a missile with a range of up to 8,000 miles that is known as the DF-41. It also is working on conventional and nuclear cruise missiles. Concern over the timing of the upcoming DF-31 flight test was prompted by China's past use of strategic missile developments and flight tests to send political signals..A CIA report from earlier this year said 13 of China's 18 long-range nuclear missiles were targeted on the United States. The report contradicted Mr. Clinton's often-used phrase there are no nuclear missiles aimed at the United States. During the July summit, China announced it would no longer point its missiles at the United States, although U.S. intelligence agencies have yet to verify this.."

The Economist 11/7-13/98 ".JOURNALISTS are used to being treated with contempt by politicians, but not in Taiwan. A foreign journalist arriving for an interview with the mayor of Kaohsiung, an industrial city in the south, is greeted by cameramen from the national television news, local reporters and the mayor's protocol officer and photographers. When the interview is over, the mayor presents the plaque of the city, and the photographers and television cameramen record the handshakes. The same ritual is repeated at a dozen other government interviews. What makes the foreign press so special is that it provides Taiwan with an international voice. Deprived of diplomatic recognition by everyone who matters, Taiwan is forced instead to court the media and spend tens of millions of dollars a year on advertising, lobbying and public relations.."

Agence France Presse 10/6/08 Beijing "China on Tuesday slammed tentative plans for Japan and the United States to develop a theater missile defense (TMD) program, denouncing some of the clauses in a related U.S. defense spending bill as "anti-China." "China hopes that the government of the United States will take effective measures to prevent the anti-China clauses from becoming law," Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao told a news briefing in Beijing. The United States and Japan issued a joint statement in New York on Sept. 20 apparently agreeing to push the TMD system after North Korea launched a rocket on Aug. 31 that over flew part of Japan.."If this act becomes law, it will create obstacles to the improvement and development of Sino-U.S. relations, and will also be detrimental to the security and stability of Taiwan and the Asia-Pacific region," Zhu said. "The Chinese side hereby expresses a deep concern and strong opposition to this," he said. Zhu also called for the United States to stop selling arms to Taiwan, an intention which was also reaffirmed in the defense bill.."

Associated Press 1/12/99 Laura Myers ".A top Chinese diplomat warned the Clinton administration Tuesday against working with Japan or Taiwan on anti-missile defense systems, suggesting that Beijing might build more powerful missiles in response. "This would have a negative impact on regional and global stability,'' said Sha Zukang, director general of the Chinese Foreign Ministry's arms control and disarmament division..While the Clinton administration sells conventional arms to Taiwan, which China considers a renegade province, the United States is not helping the island develop a missile defense system. Some members of Congress have long favored the idea, however. .."

Associated Press 1/21/99 Charles Hutzler ".China criticized a U.S. plan to deploy an anti- missile defense system as destabilizing Thursday, and urged Washington not to sell missile defenses to rival Taiwan. ."

Washington Times 1/26/99 Bill Gertz ".China's army conducted a military exercise last month with simulated missile firings against Taiwan and also for the first time conducted mock attacks on U.S. troops in the region, according to Pentagon intelligence officials. The exercise began in late November and ended in early December as road-mobile CSS-5 medium-range missiles maneuvered along China's coast, said officials familiar with a Dec. 2 Defense Intelligence Agency report on the exercise. Disclosure of the Chinese exercise comes as officials in the Clinton administration said efforts are under way to soften the conclusions of a congressionally mandated report on missile defenses and missile threats in Asia, including new details on the rapidly growing Chinese missile arsenal. According to sensitive intelligence gathered by U.S. satellites, aircraft and ships that monitored the Chinese exercise, People's Liberation Army units, including those equipped with intermediate-range CSS-5s and silo- housed CSS-2 missile units practiced firing missiles at Taiwan.."

AP 2/5/99 ". China will build a $4 million sports stadium for St. Lucia as a reward for breaking diplomatic ties with Taiwan, the Caribbean country's government said Friday. Foreign Minister George Odlum said the Chinese had also expressed interest in investing in offshore banking services on the island. St. Lucia broke ties with China's rival, Taiwan, 17 months ago. Prime Minister Kenny Anthony is currently on a trip to China. China sees Taiwan as a renegade province and has tried to deny it international recognition by courting its political allies.."

Reuters 2/8/99 ".The United States told the Macedonian government it should have consulted the international community more widely before opening diplomatic relations with Taiwan, the Macedonian premier said on Friday. But the United States did not suggest Macedonia go back on last month's decision, which could complicate attempts to extend the mandate for a U.N. peace force in the Balkan state, Prime Minister Ljubco Georgievski told a news conference.China has taken the Macedonian government's decision badly and the Chinese ambassador in Skopje was quoted as saying his country may reconsider its position on UNPREDEP, the U.N. Preventive Deployment force in Macedonia. Beijing has warned other countries again forging ties with Taiwan, which it regards as a renegade province subject to eventual union with the mainland. The two split after a civil war in 1949.."

DoD News Brief 2/11/99 Captain Doubleday ".QUESTION:Could you comment on whether the department is concerned about Chinese missiles that are apparently pointed at Taiwan? QUESTION:I think there are some Taiwanese officials quoted today as saying that they understand there's at least 100 now staring at them from across the straits, and there may be plans to increase that by as much as 600. DOUBLEDAY:Well, we're aware of the growing deployment by the Chinese in recent years of missiles which have been placed near Taiwan. I think that the most recent public statements on this were made by CIA Director George Tenet when he testified recently up on the Hill. This, however, is not a new threat.It stretches back more than half a decade, and any kind of a report that indicates that there is a sudden deployment here are wrong. They actually have been deployed for, as I say, over the last five or six years... "

DoD News Brief 2/18/99 Captain Doubleday ".Q: Can you say anything about the theater missile defense report on Taiwan? Has that gone to the Hill yet? A: The theater missile defense report has gone to the Hill. We're talking to people up on the Hill about the report and about briefings that might be offered to both staff and Members if they desire. We haven't scheduled any, to my knowledge, yet, but we're certainly prepared to do that. That is a classified report. We are hoping that there will be an unclassified version at some stage, and when there is, we'll look forward to sharing it with you."

China News 2/3/99 ".The question of whether Taiwan will be covered under the Theater Missile Defense (TMD) system may soon be answered after the United States Department of Defense yesterday submitted a report on the proposed system to Congress. Although the report has not been made public, Hong Kong's Singtao Daily newspaper quoted Defense Department sources as saying: "Taiwan does not meet necessary conditions to enter TMD." The newspaper's source added that "Taiwan isn't even mentioned in the (US) report." But Taiwan's Central News Agency quoted a high-level Ministry of Foreign Affairs official as refuting the Hong Kong newspaper report. The official said the US had provided Taiwan officials with a brief of the report and it did cover issues related to the island. But he added that the Taiwanese government will not divulge the contents of the report until the US Congress makes an official decision on the matter. The Department of Defense report evaluates the feasibility of the participation of Taiwan, South Korea and Japan in TMD, a system intended to provide a defensive umbrella against missile attack on Asia-Pacific countries. . He also hinted that China is ready to adopt a missile export management system in exchange for US refusal to supply Taiwan with TMD-related technology. .."

Reuters 2/10/99 ".Taiwan intelligence has confirmed that rival China has deployed more than 100 ballistic missiles that could be fired at the island, Taiwan's defense ministry said Wednesday. ``Based on current information obtained by our ministry, the Chinese communists indeed have more than 100 M-class missiles in storage that could target Taiwan,'' the ministry said in a statement.."

New York Times 2/12/99 Jane Perlez ".Instead of showing signs of progress in its policy of "constructive engagement" with China, the administration is facing a squall of China-bashing in Congress. Even U.S. business, a constituency that the administration's China policy has particularly tried to assist and the loudest advocate of closer ties, is complaining about Beijing's new restrictions on foreign investment. Stung by a bipartisan congressional inquiry's findings that China stole sensitive U.S. military technology, administration officials say they are warily waiting for even more explosive details expected to be announced in March in a declassified report by the congressmen who headed the inquiry..the Pentagon would report that in the early 1990s China had 60 missiles pointed at Taiwan but that since 1995 that number has more than doubled. In three years the Chinese are expected to have 800 missiles deployed on their side of the strait.. At the top of the list is the administration's proposal, which the Chinese have vehemently criticized, to push forward plans for developing a theater missile defense system with Japan, South Korea and possibly Taiwan. The system, which is still in the design stage, has been promoted with renewed urgency by the administration since the surprise firing by North Korea of a missile that flew over Japan and into the Pacific in August.."

Aviation Week & Space Technology 2/16/99 Freeper RR ".The Defense Dept. is forming a Space Launch Monitoring Div. with a cadre dedicated to making sure sensitive technology doesn't leak when U.S.-built satellites are launched from China.. A select House committee chaired by Christopher Cox (R-Calif.) made the recommendations, but its report had still not been declassified late last week. However, the White House response, most of which is unclassified, says the government will establish end-to-end monitoring of launch campaigns (and failure investigations) and vacuum up all documents authorized for release to China and distribute them to the Defense, State and Commerce Depts. and CIA. "To assist," the report says, "State and DoD are moving toward a system with industry by which the two departments will have intrusive, on-line access to all controlled technical data." .Ever concerned about alienating Chinese military officials, the Pentagon is playing down reports that Beijing is increasing the number of short-range ballistic missiles opposite Taiwan.."

Washington Post 2/26/99 Thomas Lippman "...China is engaged in an intense buildup of ballistic and cruise missile forces that will give it an "overwhelming advantage" over Taiwan by 2005, the Pentagon reported to Congress yesterday. Concentrated in eastern and southern China, these missiles "pose a serious threat to non-hardened military targets, [command and control] nodes and Taiwan's military infrastructure," according to the Pentagon assessment. These were among key findings in an assessment of the military balance in the Taiwan Strait area ordered by Congress. The report was due at the beginning of February but was held up until yesterday by arguments between the Pentagon and the State Department about what it should say, according to several sources.... According to Sen. Frank H. Murkowski (R-Alaska), a classified version of the Pentagon military assessment "examines the feasibility" of developing anti-missile defenses to protect Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. China is opposed to any effort to develop anti-missile capability in the region, especially on Taiwan, which according to Beijing is not an independent country and should not be contemplating military resistance to Beijing... Carl Ford, a former Defense Department official now acting as a consultant to Taiwan, called the report "amazingly straightforward, given the pressures in the administration to avoid provoking the People's Republic of China any more than they need to." ..."

Washington Times 2/26/99 Bill Gertz "...China's buildup of new missiles and other high-technology weapons in areas near Taiwan is shifting the balance of power in favor of Beijing, according to a Pentagon report released Thursday by Congress...Defense officials familiar with an earlier Pentagon report said the Chinese short-range missile force of M-9s and M-11s will grow from about 150 this year to 650 by 2005, and most will be deployed in areas near Taiwan. "In an armed conflict with Taiwan, China's short-range ballistic missiles likely would target air defense installations, naval bases, [command and control] nodes and logistics facilities," Thursday's report said. Development of cruise missiles similar to the U.S. Tomahawk is a high priority for the Chinese and is being boosted by acquisition of cruise-missile technology from Russia, the report said. The PLA will continue to field large numbers of increasingly accurate short-range ballistic missiles and introduce land-attack cruise missiles into its inventory," the report stated. Taiwan, meanwhile, is seeking a "qualitative edge over Beijing" by 2005 with purchases of new fighter jets, warships and air-defense systems, the report said..."

AP 2/28/99 "...Stymied in its attempts to acquire modern submarines, Taiwan's navy seeks to buy advanced U.S. Aegis warships to improve defenses against rival China, newspapers reported Sunday. Taiwan has asked to purchase an unspecified number of the ships, which boast highly advanced guided missile technology, the Liberty Times daily reported, quoting unidentified high-level military sources. That follows fruitless attempts to buy submarines and substantial improvements in Taiwan's antisubmarine warfare defense capabilities that reduce the need for Taiwan to obtain new submarines, the paper said. Two Aegis warships positioned at either end of Taiwan could substantially boost the island's ability to detect and shoot down Chinese missiles, the Liberty Times said China has an estimated 200 ballistic missiles targeted at Taiwan, and is reportedly purchasing Russian Sovremenny-class destroyers carrying SS-22 ``Sunburn'' cruise missiles, which naval experts say pose an even greater threat to Taiwan...."

Kanwa news 2/18/99 Yihong Zhang Freeper Jolly "...After the crisis in the Taiwan Strait in 1996, China further realized the importance and urgency of resolving the Taiwan issue through military struggle. Then it immediately made an obvious but more focused adjustment in the development of military equipment, the purchase of weapons from foreign countries, and the other arrangements. The Chinese strategic thinking in the development of weapons and equipment in recent years reflects the following three levels of deterrence. First of all, the first level of deterrence is the direct threat to Taiwan...The second level of deterrence is intended for the prevention of US involvement through the import of the Modern-class destroyers suitable for the attack on the aircraft carrier fleet, the development of the long-range cruise missiles, and the expedition in the development of the new ICBMs and the nuclear attack submarines. The third level of deterrence is directed at the ambiguous attitude that Japan may show in case of any conflict that happens in the Taiwan Strait, including providing part of the logistic support to the US army. The specific manifestation of this level of deterrence is increased operations of the Chinese navy and air force in the South China Sea, including having more J8D in-flight refueling fighter planes and more upgraded Ming-class submarines, establishing more bridgeheads and support bases on the sea, and entering into an ever more extensive area of the sea...."

2/25/99 AP "…China lashed back at Macedonia for establishing ties with Taiwan on Thursday, vetoing a Security Council resolution that would have kept U.N. peacekeepers in the strategic Balkan country for another six months. Russian Ambassador Sergey Lavrov abstained from the vote, saying Moscow's amendments had not been taken into consideration. China's veto was a major blow to the United Nations, which has held up the Macedonia mission as a model of preventative peacekeeping. The U.N. Preventative Deployment Force was dispatched to Macedonia in 1992 during the Bosnian war to prevent the spread of the ethnic conflict…."

Reuters 2/22/99 "... With the deadline drawing near for renewal of U.N. troops in Macedonia, diplomats fear China will make good on its threat to veto the operation because of Skopje's new relations with Taiwan. France is hoping that Macedonia will review the issue before Feb. 28, maintaining economic relations but not recognizing Taipei as a separate state, Macedonia's state radio said.... It was deployed in 1995 to monitor borders and deter the spread of fighting to Macedonia from Bosnia and other parts of the former Yugoslavia. Macedonia also provides logistical support for European civilian monitors that were in Kosovo and is the main base for a NATO extraction force for the monitors....Macedonia and Taiwan announced new diplomatic relations last month, provoking an immediate protest from China, which considers Taiwan a renegade province with no right to its own international relations...."

Business Week 3/1/99 Stan Crock Joyce Baranthan "...The revelation that China is building up its missile arsenal across the Taiwan Strait from Taipei seemed to confirm every Sinophobe's worst fear: A modernized People's Liberation Army, packing stolen high-tech weapons technology, was finally flexing its muscles. The reality is far more complex. Despite that menacing array of missiles, China's army, navy, and air force are mainly ill-equipped and badly trained. Yet the Chinese are more committed than ever to building a military their neighbors must fear and respect..... But China's military ambitions cannot be discounted. Now that Beijing has forced the PLA to divest its business interests, the generals have more time to overhaul their commands. The army has already built up a respectable capacity in the short-range conventional missiles needed to attack Taiwan. The Defense Ministry has bought four modern submarines and is haggling over two missile-firing destroyers from Russia, which could be the start of a long-term plan to build a working on such Buck Rogers stuff as anti-satellite laser weapons. ''This is an area where it can at least reach rough parity,'' says one China watcher. Clinton Administration officials admit China's buildup bears watching. The U.S. itself may not be threatened anytime soon. But over the long haul, the PLA's modernization could drastically alter the balance of power in Asia...."

London financial Times 2/26/99 James Kynge "…Beijing made a veiled threat yesterday to transfer missile technology to unspecified third countries if the US persisted with a controversial plan to provide a missile defence shield for some of China's neighbours, including Taiwan. China also launched a strong verbal attack on the US, saying that Washington's decision this week to block the sale of a satellite to a Chinese-led corporation would have a negative effect on trade and economic co-operation. Beijing's reaction to the possibility that Taiwan, China's rival since 1949, may be included in a US-backed Theatre Missile Defence (TMD) system has been uncompromising. Officials said a TMD shield for Taiwan, Japan and South Korea would be seen as the start of a cold war policy of containment against China by the US, and could accelerate the regional arms build-up…."

Christian Science Monitor 3/4/99 Ann Scott Tyson "…By far the most sensitive issue for debate - and one that carries the greatest risk of inciting a US-China conflict - is whether the United States should include Taiwan under a missile-defense umbrella. China, determined to reunify with the island it considers a renegade province, bitterly opposes such a US move… Most immediately, China's military buildup is aimed at securing its sovereignty claims in a distinct zone of influence that includes Taiwan and the South China Sea. In the long run, however, it is designed to establish China as the Asian superpower - at the expense of the United States, experts say…. Beijing's military modernization - and especially the buildup and development of ballistic and cruise missiles able to strike Taiwan - has recently brought this conflict over strategic visions into sharp relief. Experts agree that China is engaged in a long-term effort to upgrade the quality and numbers of its ballistic and cruise missiles, partly in an effort to intimidate pro-independence forces on the island of Taiwan….But debate is raging in the US foreign-policy community - specifically between the State Department and Pentagon - over whether embracing Taiwan with TMD would ultimately hurt or help US interests. One view maintains that TMD for Taiwan would push China to accelerate its missile build-up, halt its cooperation with the US in weapons nonproliferation, and spur an arms race… "

Reuters 3/4/99 Alice Hung "…`It's no secret the defence budget revealed by the Chinese communists only reflects part of their actual spending so as to avoid international criticism,'' said the ministry official, who asked not to be identified by name. ``Based on our long-term observations, they normally spend three times as much,'' the official said. (note: which would be 37.8 billion US) Analysts say a top priority of China's defence spending is building the capacity to use force to take Taiwan, which it has regarded as a renegade province it became estranged from the mainland at the end of a civil war in 1949…."

Reuters 3/5/99 "…A senior Chinese official warned the United States Friday that offering to shelter Taiwan under a missile defense umbrella would be the "last straw'' and lead to serious consequences. The official, speaking to reporters on condition of anonymity, said such a move would mean a direct U.S. military presence in Taiwan and encourage independence for the Nationalist-ruled island. He said the Theater Missile Defense plan amounted to missile proliferation since the technologies were related…. The official lashed out at reports from the United States that China was massing ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan. Some U.S. politicians have said the reported build-up justified offering Taiwan a missile defense umbrella. "Whether we should deploy missiles on our own territory is our own business,'' the official said, warning Washington to keep its "hands off.'' Since Japan already has rockets, TMD would give it "both the spear and the shield,'' the official said. It would "enhance military cooperation between Japan and the United States and we don't like it,'' he added…."

SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST 3/5/99 Jason Blatt "…Taiwanese authorities yesterday were reported to have arrested three mainland spies who tried to sneak on to the island in a fishing boat. The three were caught bringing in significant quantities of explosives and were being held in a detention centre for illegal immigrants pending an investigation, the China Times Express said. Its report came a day after Justice Minister Yeh Chin-fong confirmed the recent arrest of two men, including a Hong Kong resident, in connection with a separate case involving alleged acts of espionage directed against Taiwan's armed forces…."

Drudge Report 3/7/99 "…China renewed its warnings to the U.S. Sunday over the possible development of a U.S. missile defense system in Asia, suggesting that the inclusion of Taiwan in the project would constitute an infringement of China's sovereignty. Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan: "If some people intend to include Taiwan under theater missile defense, that would amount to an encroachment on China's sovereignty and territorial integrity." He added that would prompt a ``strong reaction" from the Chinese government and the people, reports Monday's FINANCIAL TIMES…."

Kyodo News Service 3/13/99 "…Former Chinese Ambassador to Japan Xu Dunxin has warned against a visit to Japan by Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui, a Taiwanese newspaper reported Saturday. Such a visit ''would invite stronger consequences than those after Lee's visit to the United States,'' the United Daily News quoted Xu as saying.

China protested Lee's unofficial 1995 visit to the U.S. to make a speech at Cornell University, with cross-straits relations souring after the landmark visit. Following the trip, Beijing conducted military exercises targeted at Taiwan and called off a high-level meeting between officials from cross-straits exchange organizations…."

Reuters 3/24/99 "…Senate Foreign Relations Chairman Jesse Helms, a North Carolina Republican, and Sen. Robert Torricelli, a New Jersey Democrat, teamed up to sponsor the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act. The bill, introduced in a growing congressional climate of hostility toward China amid spying charges, would authorize the sale to Taiwan of a broad array of defense items, including missile defense systems and advanced air-to-air missiles. It also seeks to strengthen the process for defense sales to Taiwan, Helms said, requiring the president to report to Congress annually on Taiwan's defense requests and to justify any rejections of arms sales to Taiwan…."

CAN 3/29/99 "…Chen, who came to New York to attend celebrations marking the 102 birthday of former ROC first lady Madame Chiang Kai-shek, said high-level dialogue between the Republic of China and the United States has proceeded smoothly. Nevertheless, Chen said a bilateral agreement between the two sides has banned him from divulging any details about the such meetings, including the persons involved, the venue, the date and the content of their talks. Chen flew back to his Washington office Monday afternoon…."

Christian Science Monitor 4/7/99 Lorna Hahn "The Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) of 1979 was passed after the Carter administration switched the official US recognition from Taipei to Beijing. The act allows the US to continue economic and cultural relations with Taiwan, and permits the US to sell Taiwan enough weapons to defend itself. Yet China is demanding that the US deny Taiwan additional missile defenses, thus leaving it vulnerable to the newly deployed ballistic missiles along China's southern coast. In effect, China is asking the US government to violate the TRA. This is after China has enhanced its own missile capabilities through the alleged theft of American technology and demonstrated its willingness to use missiles to intimidate Taiwan in March 1996. The US should not only refuse to bow to these latest Chinese demands, it should instead ask China to recognize that the TRA is American law - which the US government is obliged to obey - if it wants the US to continue to recognize and follow its "one China" policy."

NewsMax 4/13/99 "...Before Zhu left Washington for a 10-day tour of America, he and Bill Clinton held a joint press conference, during which a chilling verbal exchange took place -- one which, for unknown reasons, was either not mentioned at all in press reports or mentioned only in passing. When Zhu was asked what China intended to do about Taiwan, he reminded us that Abraham Lincoln "resorted to the use of force and fought a war for that, for maintaining the unity of the United States." Clinton countered that the comparison was invalid. One does not have to be a Confucian scholar to understand that Zhu threw down the gauntlet. He told us, in effect, that Taiwan belongs to China and will be retaken -- by war, if necessary. Clinton lamely contested the "right" of China to do that. t this moment, China is placing missile batteries opposite Taiwan. When -- not if -- the assault begins, America cannot fulfill its commitment to defend Taiwan without putting the American mainland in jeopardy. Chinese missiles, loaded with multiple nuclear warheads, can now reach Los Angeles and San Francisco, thanks to the critical technology China stole from us due to sloppy security practices and bought from us due to corrupt trade policies...."

STRATFOR's Global Intelligence Update 4/13/99 "...A meeting among the defense ministers of Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and China scheduled for April 14-15 has been postponed. The Tass news agency cited Russian Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev as emphasizing that the reason for the postponement was not political. Instead, Sergeyev said the meeting was delayed because the Kazakh minister was sick and the Chinese minister could not make it due to "emerging circumstances." What these emerging circumstances are was not specified, and it raises the intriguing question of what could be happening at precisely this time that is important enough to keep the Defense Minister from this meeting.....There are several possible emerging circumstances in China. Following Chinese Prime Minister Zhu Rongji's comment in Washington last week that China has "never undertaken to renounce the use of force" in pursuing reunification with Taiwan, the Taiwan Defense Ministry has vowed to go ahead with defense exercises beginning later this month. Han Kuang 15 will be the first live-fire defense exercise to be held by Taiwan in the Taiwan Strait and on Jinmen Island (just a few miles off the Chinese coast) since the 1995-96 Chinese launch of a ballistic missile into the Taiwanese shipping lanes. Han Kuang 15 is scheduled for June, but smaller live-fire exercises will be held on Penghu Island and Jinmen Island in April and May. During the 1995-96 escalation of tensions, the U.S. responded by sending two carrier groups in to the area. However, due to the rotation of forces and the ongoing NATO campaign in Yugoslavia, the U.S. does not have a carrier group on station in Asia at this time. Were tensions to rise again, the nearest available carrier would be the USS Carl Vinson, currently en route from Tasmania and due in Bremerton, Washington, on May 6. However, as these exercises are still some time off, this is not likely the immediate reason for the postponement of the Chinese Defense Minister's trip to Moscow. ...."

Christian Science Monitor 4/8/99 Cameron Barr Freeper Stand Watch Listen "...EXCERPTS "Although Chinese leaders have denied a buildup, media reports citing intelligence sources have said that China is increasing the number of missiles it deploys near Taiwan. Military analysts question whether China has the strength to prevail in an invasion of Taiwan, but its missiles provide a constant source of political leverage over an island that must continually worry about Chinese intentions as it ponders whether to declare outright independence from China. A missile defense system would weaken Chinese leverage...."

www.insidechina.com /(Reuters) 4/21/99 Freeper Revel "…Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji ended his North American visit on a blunt note on Tuesday, rebuking pro-Taiwan independence protesters and warning China has never ruled out force to regain its breakaway province. …"

Washington Times 4/23/99Bill Gertz and Rowan Scarborough Freeper Stand Watch Listen "...EXCERPTS "The Clinton administration is continuing to deny vital defensive weapons to Taiwan. An inter-agency group agreed this week to reject a request from the island nation for U.S. military equipment needed to defend against China's People's Liberation Army. U.S. government officials tell us the White House and State Department, fearful of upsetting the Chinese government, are opposing the sale of a long-range phased-array radar that could provide early warning of Chinese missile attacks. The radar is an urgent need because China is deploying up to 650 M-11 and M-9 short-range missiles opposite Taiwan over the next six years, according to a recent report by the Defense Intelligence Agency. The pro-China officials fear the radar will be used for Taiwan's missile defenses, systems which Beijing vehemently opposes."..."

Washington Times 4/23/99 Bill Gertz Rowan Scarborough "...The Clinton administration is continuing to deny vital defensive weapons to Taiwan. An inter-agency group agreed this week to reject a request from the island nation for U.S. military equipment needed to defend against China's People's Liberation Army. U.S. government officials tell us the White House and State Department, fearful of upsetting the Chinese government, are opposing the sale of a long-range phased-array radar that could provide early warning of Chinese missile attacks. The radar is an urgent need because China is deploying up to 650 M-11 and M-9 short-range missiles opposite Taiwan over the next six years, according to a recent report by the Defense Intelligence Agency. The pro-China officials fear the radar will be used for Taiwan's missile defenses, systems which Beijing vehemently opposes. "This long-range radar was a high priority of the Taiwanese and it doesn't have anything to do with offensive arms," said one official critical of the decision. "It would give 21 million people five minutes to duck and run."..."

Washington Times 4/28/99 Richard D. Fisher "...A Pentagon report to Congress in February states, "Taiwan's most significant vulnerability is its limited capacity to defend against the growing arsenal of Chinese ballistic missiles." But if some administration officials get their way in arms talks with Taiwan this week, Taipei will be denied two radar systems that could enhance its future capability to defend against those same Chinese missiles. According to media reports the Pentagon has estimated that by 2005 China could deploy up to 650 short-range ballistic missiles against Taiwan. One such missile, the 360-mile range DF-15, was fired near Taiwan 10 times in July 1995 and March 1996 to intimidate Taiwan's people and its political leaders. In 1996 the DF-15 was an effective but not too accurate missile. In the future, the DF-15 could be improved with guidance systems that use signals from American or Russian navigation satellites to achieve accuracy sufficient to target specific buildings in cities or on military bases.... American support for Taiwan is strongly implied by the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act (TRA), which states that the United States will "consider an effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means . . . of grave concern to the United States." The TRA also stipulates that the United States will "provide Taiwan arms of a defensive character." The TRA turned 20 on April 10, and in a letter issued April 14 President Clinton credited the TRA with being "instrumental . . . in preserving peace and stability in Asia." Mr. Clinton is correct. But as seen so many times before, his administration's actions belie his rhetoric. In arms talks with Taiwan this week it is reported that officials in the State Department and the White House are opposing the sale of two radar systems to Taiwan. These radar area phased-array system that would enhance the capability of U.S. Patriot anti-tactical ballistic missiles that Taiwan has already purchased, and an AEGIS naval phased-array radar that Taiwan would fit to a destroyer-sized ship. These radars are utterly defensive weapons and thus consistent with the TRA. Should the administration refuse the sale of radar that Taiwan has requested, the most likely reason will be to avoid angering China. Such a decision would mark an American capitulation to China's loud and threatening diplomatic campaign this year against U.S. missile defense plans in Asia. To do so would also advance two key Chinese ambitions: to weaken Taiwan and to weaken the U.S. alliance system in Asia...."

Agence France Presse 4/28/99 "....China has set up an exercise ground which is an exact replica of rival Taiwan's largest military airport to stage mock invasion exercises, a military analyst warned Wednesday. "The maneuver's venue was set up two years ago in China's northwestern province of Gansu," Professor Chung Chien of National Tsing Hwa University, told AFP. "The military has been keeping an eye on the setup for a while," said Chung, also a professor with Taiwan's War College and Armed Forces University. Paratroopers from the People's Liberation Army (PLA), coupled with other combat units, had used the exercise ground, which is a full-size duplicate of Chingchuankang Airport in central Taiwan, in several drills, he said. Defense ministry spokesman Kung Fan-ding told reporters that he was was "not at all surprised to read such reports now that Beijing has refused to renounce the use of force" in solving its disputes with Taiwan. China has pledged to attack Taiwan should the island declare formal independence from the "motherland." Taiwan and the mainland were split in 1949 at the end of a civil war. "The military has adopted counter-measures against any possible action or sabotage the Chinese communist forces could launch," Kung said. ...."

Reuters 4/30/99 "...The United States plans to sell an early-warning radar system to Taiwan that would enable it to monitor the launch of Chinese ballistic missiles or bomber jets, the New York Times reported Friday. Beijing, which views Taiwan as a rogue province, has already protested the move, the newspaper said. Some Clinton administration officials have also opposed the plan on the grounds that it could worsen already prickly relations between China and the United States, the newspaper reported.....The radar system, which could be worth hundreds of millions dollars to the U.S defense industry, would provide Taiwan with several minutes' warning in the event of a launch of ballistic missiles on the mainland, the newspaper said...... ``We have made serious representations with the U.S. side,'' Yu said. ``We say that any arms sales to Taiwan by any country in the world constitutes an infringement on Chinese sovereignty, an interference in our internal affairs.'' ....'

Reuters 4/30/99 C.C. Yao Freeper crypt2k "..."More than 500 soldiers deployed heavy artillery and M60A3 tanks on a beach at Penghu, a Taiwan-held island of fishermen and farmers midway between Taiwan and the mainland, to test their readiness to fend off a maritime landing force." ..."

Chinatimes 5/5/99 AFP "...Three mainland Chinese have been arrested for spying on a Taiwan air base which houses a newly formed wing of F-16 fighters, officials and newspapers said Tuesday. Premier Vincent Siew told shocked legislators there was firm evidence against the three. The three Chinese, who were ostensibly in the island visiting relatives, were taken into custody on April 28 by the military, the United Daily News quoted intelligence sources as saying. "The three suspects were likely to gather information on training and deployment of the US-made F-16 fighters," the paper said. They were discovered taking pictures while illegally working for an construction project at the air base at Hualien in eastern Taiwan, it said. Air force Major General Lai Chin-chun said the three suspects were being questioned and security had been stepped up around the base...."

Reuters 5/9/99 Jeffrey Parker "...An explosion of anti-western anger across urban China has set off internal alarm bells in Taiwan, which, along with Tibet, lies at the heart of Beijing's opposition to NATO's air attacks on Yugoslavia. Taiwan media gave top coverage to the U.S.-led alliance's Friday bombing of China's Belgrade embassy, which NATO has called a ``tragic mistake'' but which left four Chinese dead, and the near-rioting it sparked in Beijing and many other Chinese cities. Taiwan commentators said China's state-controlled media were playing with fire by whipping up nationalist, anti-western feelings that they said encouraged mobs of irate students to attack U.S. and other western diplomatic outposts....``If mainland authorities aren't careful, these sentiments could ultimately end up turning against them,'' Taipei's China Post said in an editorial...."

The Nation (Thailand) 5/13/99 "....Among the many acute policy differences between the United States and China, none has more potential for serious trouble than the complex issue of whether certain Asian nations need theatre missile defence systems, known as TMDs....More provocative is talk of helping Taiwan acquire one. ''That will completely disrupt the current world situation and instead a new cold war will appear,'' warns Wang Daohan, China's senior negotiator with Taiwan. Beijing fears that, protected from possible Chinese missile attack, Taiwan might declare independence. Premier Zhu Rongji has said that the provision of such technology would be an interference in Chinese domestic affairs. Others have warned that China might then upgrade its offensive capability, perhaps by adding multiple war heads to its missiles launching a dangerous Asian arms race....."

Chinatimes 5/13/99 AFP "...China may launch an "information war", including the use of computer viruses to paralyse command systems, before an invasion of Taiwan, a top military leader warned Wednesday. "A massive information attack may lead to a chaos here," Chief of the General Staff General Tang Yao-ming told a seminar. "And when that happens, it would be the occasion for the enemy to attack Taiwan." Taiwan's energy, transportation and banking systems could be China's targets in staging an information war, Tang said...."

Chinatimes 5/13/99 AFP "...Taiwan Wednesday denied reports it would allow visits by a United Nations arms inspection group but reiterated its official line that it does not make chemical weapons. "Now that the Republic of China (Taiwan) is not a signatory to the UN Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) it cannot possibly agree to such inspection," the defense ministry said in a statement. "Yet as a member of the international community, we will continue to abide by the CWC rules. "We will by no means manufacture and nor will we own chemical weapons." The ministry conceded efforts have been devoted to the manufacturing of "protection gear" for use in nuclear and biochemical warfare and to the conduct of training programs...."

WorldNetDaily 5/17/99 J R Nyquist "... China, too, has been engaged in a serious buildup of forces opposite Taiwan. There is also China's invasion of the Spratly Islands, which are located more than 800 miles from China yet 140 miles from the Philippines...As it happens, Taiwan's lifeline runs near to the Spratlys. On Jan.12 of this year, Taiwan President Lee, taking note of Beijing's obvious attempts to encircle his small island country, called on his fellow citizens "to raise their vigilance against the military threat from China." Four days earlier, on Jan. 8, Chinese President Jiang Zemin laid out the mission of the People's Liberation Army in a speech: "We must resolutely safeguard the unity of the motherland and the nation's territorial integrity." Unity, of course, is the war cry of the Communist Chinese against the Nationalist Chinese on Taiwan. President Jiang also warned that the Chinese People's Liberation Army should prepare itself for two things: nuclear war and internal uprisings. Soon thereafter, in mid January, China conducted bomber and missile exercises in which Chinese forces practiced targeting American troops in the Far East. The Chinese have also announced radical changes in military doctrine. The Chinese Air Force was placed in "offensive mode" in January, and China's army doctrine was altered to one of global war-fighting...."

www.scmp.com 5/18/99 AFP "...Taiwan's military authorities have approved plans to expand the island's largest naval base to pave the way for the acquisition of American-built Aegis destroyers, it was reported yesterday. The expansion plans for Tsoying harbour would cost an estimated NT$30 billion (HK$6.9 billion) the Independence Evening Post said...."

China Times 5/19/99 AFP "...President Lee Teng-hui on Tuesday showed off the "muscle" of Taiwan's revamped defences on islands close to the Chinese mainland. Dozens of US-made M60-A3 tanks, TOW anti-tank missiles, AH-1W attack helicopters, armoured personnel vehicles, rockets and cannons for an armored brigade were on display after recent military drills on islands in the Taiwan Strait. "I have been deeply impressed by the aviation and armored infantry brigades in the inspections," Lee said at the Wuteh base on Pengu. "Today's review of weaponry and personnel once more shows the muscle of the newly formed combined brigades," he added. Taiwan, which always has one eye on any hint of a threat from China's huge military, has staged a sweeping restructuring of its armed forces...."

Arizona Republic 5/16/99 Gary Weiand Freeper Stand Watch Listen "...That statement assumes that China means to dominate the East. Is that Western bias speaking, or can we be morally certain that China is an imperial, expansionist state? We have been told that Chinese leaders regard themselves as inheritors of a temporarily dispossessed Middle Kingdom that naturally dominates Asia. If so, then China, like Japan in 1941, aims to push us back to California. ...China argues that Taiwan is as much a part of the nation as its mainland and that reunification is an internal affair, but then goes on to add that America has no stake in the matter. Both propositions are false...."

China Times 5/26/99 AFP "...Taiwan's China Airlines (CAL) plans to order several aircraft from US-based Boeing Co. for four billion US dollars as part of its expansion plans, the Economic Daily News reported Tuesday. The deal for the Boeing 777 passenger jets and Boeing 747 cargo planes is expected to be announced in June, the paper said, without specifying the number of aircraft involved....The expansion is part of CAL's preparation for an expected resumption of air links between Taiwan and mainland China in the next few years, he said...."

China Times 5/25/99 "...Beijing might use nuclear weapons against Taiwan, particularly its newly developed neutron bombs which can inflict heavy fatalities without causing much material damage, according to a US Congress report released on Monday...The report said that the neutron bomb packs more radiation, but has less explosive power, than a conventional nuclear device, which means it can cause heavy casualties while leaving infrastructure largely intact....Even now, the report went on, plans to deploy neutron bombs might be on Beijing's drawing board. Although Beijing has promised "no first strike" of nuclear weapons, this policy only applies to foreign states, which, according to Beijing, does not include Taiwan...."

Chinatimes 5/26/99 AFP "...The Philippines on Tuesday played down a row over its objections to a visit by Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui, saying it did not expect Taiwan to take any retaliatory action. Presidential spokesman Fernando Barican said he did not expect the issue to "force Taiwan to consider action against us. On the contrary, the Philippines is looking forward to enhanced relations with Taiwan." In Taipei Taiwan's parliament Tuesday asked the government to get tough with the Philippines...."

Chinatimes 5/28/99 "...Taiwan on Thursday staged a live-fire exercise on an island close to the Chinese mainland, as the nationalist government assessed the implications of China's growing nuclear capability. In an anti-landing drill at dawn, six companies of Taiwanese troops rained cannons, rockets and guns on a mock enemy trying to invade Kinmen (Quemoy), which at one point is just 3,000 meters (3,270 yards) from the Chinese city of Xiamen. The army said that for the first time US-made M60-A3 tanks were used in maneuvers...."

www.scmp.com 5/27/99 Reuters "...A US court ruling that China's status as a signatory to the Warsaw Convention does not automatically cover Taiwan threatens serious political and trade repercussions. The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, ruling on the loss of an US$83,000 (HK$642,000) shipment of Taiwanese computer chips, said it found no precedent for assuming that US policy held Taiwan to be "party to any treaty signed by China". "We caution, however, that we do not independently determine the status of Taiwan. Instead, we merely recognise and defer to the [US] political departments' position that Taiwan is not bound by China's adherence to the Warsaw Convention," said the judges. Along with challenging China's diplomatic dominion over Taiwan, the ruling opens up a host of problems in burgeoning air cargo and passenger traffic between the US and Taiwan, lawyers said afterwards...."

5/27/99 AP Freeper Thanatos "...The Pentagon today recommended sale of 240 Hellfire missiles to Taiwan in a deal worth about $23 million. The proposed sale also includes spare parts and related equipment for the missiles, which Taiwan would use aboard two types of military helicopters. The missiles are fired from the air against targets on the ground...."

NewsMax.com 5/30/99 Inside Cover "...And what about the ever popular claim that there's no evidence the Chinese have actually implemented the high tech they got from us? Tell it to the Taiwanese. Even a cursory reading of the Cox Report (i.e., the "Overview") reveals that the Chinese stole guidance technology from advanced aircraft like the F-14, F-16 and even the F-117 Stealth fighter -- which, the report states, "is directly applicable to medium and short range PLA missiles, such as the CSS-6 (also known as the M-9)". The Cox report continues: "CSS-6 missiles were, for example, fired in the Taiwan Strait over Taiwan's main ports in the 1996 crisis and confrontation with the United States." What's worth noting here is that the CSS-6 (M-9) is nuclear capable, a fact which made U.S. defense experts extremely nervous when they saw that particular missile soaring over a Pacific Island we have a treaty obligation to defend...."

Reuters 6/1/99 Freeper Thanatos "...China on Tuesday demanded the US cancel plans to sell air-to-surface anti-tank weapons to Taiwan to avoid ''new damage'' to strained Sino-US ties. ''The Chinese side demands the US government abide by the three Sino-US joint communiques, especially the August 17 communique, and cancel the sale to prevent new damage to ties,'' ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao said...."

Long Beach Press Telegram 6/4/99 Bill Hillburg "...Sources familiar with leasing plans for the closed Naval Shipyard said Thursday there are no Chinese ties to AMC Long Beach, the company that is the port's reported choice to reopen part of the base. This may clear the way for AMC to open a Long Beach shipyard that would employ up to 600 workers, including a number of former Naval Shipyard employees, on ship repair and barge-building projects. AMC, an affiliate of San Francisco-based Astoria Metals Corp., came under a cloud of suspicion on May 18 after port officials allegedly told several City Council members that the company was being financed by mainland China's Communist regime. The charge was hotly denied by John Pickering, president of AMC Long Beach, and other company officials. They said their $10 million in start-up capital was all coming either from U.S. sources or from Taiwan, island home of the pro-U.S. Republic of China. "We are not all tied up with the Chinese Communists," said Pickering, a retired Navy captain and the last commander of the Naval Shipyard, which shut down in 1997....."

Koenig's International News 6/10/99 Charles Smith "...According to Defense Secretary Perry, the U.S. contact for PLA General Ding was Barry Carter, Commerce Deputy Undersecretary of Export Administration. According to Federal Election Commission records, Barry Carter is a DNC donor and currently a Professor of Law at Georgetown University. In 1994, Carter worked at the Commerce Dept. under Ron Brown. Barry Carter exchanged correspondence with several major China-Gate players including PLA Lt. General Huai Guomo, PLA Major General Deng Yousheng, Ken Kay, a lobbyist for Sun Computers, and Eden Woon of the Washington State China Relations Council. The 1995 PLA list given to Carter is part of a series of letters between the Commerce Dept., various Chinese Army officers and anxious U.S. vendors. The 1995 list provided to Carter included "China YuanWang (Group)" and several other well know Chinese Army owned companies such as "NORINCO", "China National Nuclear", "China State Shipbuilding" and "China Aerospace." Carter also included his own personal touch to the list, by providing the phone, fax and address for his PLA contact in Beijing, "Lieutenant Colonel Wang Zhongchao", and his contact at the Chinese embassy in Washington, D.C., "Colonel Xu Cunyong." Carter provided the list of PLA companies and contacts to Eden Woon, donor to U.S. Senator Patty Murray (D-WA), Executive Director of the Washington State China Relations Council (WSCRC) and Director of the Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce..... In December 1995, Eden Woon and the WSCRC hosted a delegation of Chinese Army representatives from PLA owned companies. Woon took them on a tour of the Washington state companies anxious to do business with the Chinese Army. The 1995 delegation to Washington state included "Feng Hui, Staff officer" of the COSTIND "Foreign Affairs Dep't." Feng Hui is better known as Major Feng Hui of the Chinese Army. Major Feng was accompanied by other officers from the PLA unit COSTIND, and a host of engineering specialists from various PLA owned companies, including "Chengdu Aircraft plant", the "Jiangnan Shipyard" and "No. 614 Institute", a PLA institute staffed by weapons experts. There is a clear reason why Major Feng trusted Eden Woon to help the Chinese Army do business in Seattle and beyond. Woon's radical views of U.S./Sino relations do not include a free Taiwan. In 1997, Woon and the Washington State China Relations Council sponsored a conference that included U.S. Senator Patty Murray (D-WA). On October 14, 1997, at the close of the conference, the participants issued a report that states, "The U.S. should ensure that Taiwan understands that if conflicts arise (especially if apparently provoked by Taiwan), it cannot necessarily count on the U.S. coming to the rescue." ..."

Washington Times 3/9/97 William Triplett "......* Arms sales to Taiwan: Chinese diplomats tell their American counterparts that preventing American arms sales to Taiwan is their No. 1 objective with us. President Bush approved the sale of 150 F-16s to Taiwan in 1992 but no significant new arms sales to Taiwan have been permitted by President Clinton...."

6/16/99 AFP "….Taiwan intelligence authorities are investigating a computer company suspected of being infiltrated by mainland China, it was reported Tuesday. The National Security Council was alerted when a Taiwanese printed circuit board company operating in the mainland recently took control of a local computer firm listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange, the state-run Central News Agency said. It said the Chinese firm was capitalized at only 100 million Taiwan dollars ($3.08 million), only one-tenth of that of the company it took over. "After a low-key probe, the council discovered the money was supplied by the Chinese authorities," the agency said…"

Salon 6/21/99 David Horowitz "... Nine months before the COSCO lease was sealed, a crisis had developed in the Taiwan Strait. Elections were being held in Taiwan and the communist regime, which claims sovereignty over Taiwan, was launching intermediate range ballistic missiles with blank warheads in the direction of the island, an act of blatant intimidation. The Clinton administration had interposed two aircraft carriers from the 7th Fleet ostensibly to remind the communists that Taiwan was an American ally. At that moment, an old Little Rock friend of Clinton's appeared in Washington with a $460,000 donation to the legal defense trust that Clinton had set up to defray his expenses in the Paula Jones sexual harassment case. The friend also brought a message from one of China's top officials that if the United States interfered in this matter, a missile attack against Los Angeles would become a possibility. The friend also brought his own broken-English personal message: "Any negative outcomes of the U.S. decision in the China issue will affect your administration position especially in the campaign year." The messenger was Charlie Trie, owner of the Fu Lin restaurant in Little Rock. Trie was also a member of the Four Seas triad, a billion-dollar Asian crime syndicate allied to Chinese military and intelligence agencies. Clinton's written reply to Trie's blackmail was addressed "Dear Charlie" and assured him and his communist bosses in Beijing that the interposition of the aircraft carriers was "not intended as a threat to the People's Republic of China," but as "a signal to both Taiwan and the PRC that the United States was concerned about maintaining stability in the ... region." ..."

Chinatimes 6/25/99 CAN "...Wu An-chai, vice chairman of Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) warned Beijing on Thursday the stronger the military threat from mainland China, the more popular the call for Taiwan independence will be. "Prior to Beijing's missile threat in March 1996, only 9 percent of Taiwan's people preferred an overt breaking of relations with the mainland. After that incident, this group of people increased to 21 percent," he said..... Wu said that surveys show that more than 80 percent of Taiwan people prefer the maintaining of the status quo in cross-Taiwan Strait relations, and oppose immediate unification or immediate independence. However, the surveys also show that the popularity of Taiwan independence is closely related to Mainland China's military threat toward Taiwan, he said....."

http://www.insidechina.com/news.php3?id=75170 AFP 6/24/99 "...Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui said Thursday Taipei would join US theatre missile defensive (TMD) plans as long as Beijing's ballistic weapons were perceived as a threat. "It is unreasonable to ask us not to come up with self-defense counter-measures while we are gravely threatened," Lee said in meeting with Karen House, head of the Dow Jones group's international division. More than 100 Chinese ballistic missiles have been deployed along the southeast coast of China facing Taiwan, according to Taiwan's defense ministry. And media reports estimated that 600 more could be deployed in southeastern China over the next few years..."

International Herald Tribune 6/29/99 Philip Bowring "... Relations across the Taiwan Strait are improving, but the two sides are drifting further apart. That paradox may be apparent to Wang Daohan, head of China's Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait, who is due this year to become the most senior mainland official to visit here. Political and economic development on both sides have had consequences for prospects of eventual reunification that are different from those imagined when cross-strait commerce began in earnest in the late 1980s. The United States and others interested in maintaining good relations with both sides need to grasp the paradox. There is a variety of reasons for the current easing of tensions: Both sides still bear scars from the 1996 crisis, when U.S. ships were dispatched to the Taiwan Strait after China fired blank test missiles near Taiwan's waters to try to influence the result of its elections. There is a common economic interest in joining the World Trade Organization, which requires a stable U.S.-China-Taiwan relationship. Under U.S. pressure, Taiwan has moderated its efforts to secure international recognition of its de facto independence..... However, the movement toward closer de facto links has stalled. And almost no one in Taiwan now regards unification, even under the loosest form of the ''one country, two systems'' formula, as even a remote possibility over the next decade. The political reasons for this are obvious enough. On the mainland, political development has essentially frozen. In Taiwan, meanwhile, the democratic process has emerged more smoothly and rapidly than expected...."

Hong Kong Standard 7/2/99 AFP "...Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui has called for further domestic development of advanced weaponry despite ongoing efforts to arrange a landmark visit to Taipei by a top mainland envoy. ``Strong armed forces will be the guarantee of national development, and advanced weapons are key elements in reinforcing the military forces,'' Mr Lee told the military-run Chung-shan Institute of Science and Technology. Beijing has threatened to attack Taiwan should the island declare formal independence. ``Although some of the weapons could be acquired abroad, only by enhancing self-development capability can national security be ensured,'' he said...."

China Times 7/13/99 AFP "…Tang Shubei, executive vice-president of the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait (ARATS), told reporters here that Lee was "playing with fire" by saying Taiwan and China were on an equal footing. He said at the end of a three-day forum here on the reunification of Taiwan and China that such remarks would bring "disaster" to Taiwan…. China on Sunday denounced Lee's comments as "separatist malice" and declared Taiwan part of China whatever its leader might say. "There is only one China in the world and Taiwan is a part of it," said a Chinese Communist Party Central Committee spokesman…."

7/12/99 CAN "…Officials of the Republic of China Ministry of National Defense (MND) denied any knowledge on Monday of a reported F-5 fighter jet deal between Taiwan and the Philippines. According to an AFP dispatch from Manila, the Philippines is planning to acquire at least 40 F-5E fighter jets from Taiwan, at "a bargain price of US$1 each," as part of efforts to modernize its ill-equipped armed forces. To avoid interference from mainland China, the Philippines, which recognizes Beijing's "one China" policy, will seek to buy the fighters through a third country, the report said…."

China Times 7/14/99 AFP "…Taiwanese troops were Tuesday on the alert for any sign that China was to launch major military exercises as cross-straits tensions soared to a three-year high, the defense ministry said. "There is no sign that Chinese communist troops are preparing for large scale war games," defense ministry spokesman Kung Fan-ding told reporters. "But the military are keeping a close watch on any development." A declaration by President Lee Teng-hui that Taiwan is a separate state from China has drawn a furious response from Beijing…."

Stratfor.com 7/13/99 "…Taiwan has refused to back down from President Lee Teng-hui's declaration that the island was abandoning the "One China" concept. Lee's abandonment of one ambiguous policy for a slightly less ambiguous but much more confrontational one -- just a step short of a declaration of Taiwan's independence -- has drawn threats from mainland China and subdued but substantial concern from the United States. On July 13, Lee reiterated Taiwan's new policy of national sovereignty. "The Republic of China has always been a sovereign state, not a local government," Lee said to visiting Honduran Foreign Minister Roberto Flores Bermudez. And to emphasize Taiwan's newly declared sovereignty, the Taiwanese Foreign Ministry issued a statement on July 13 proclaiming Taiwanese sovereignty over the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. The statement condemned recent Philippine and Malaysian activities on the islands and declared that the Spratlys and the entire South China Sea belong to Taiwan "legally, historically, geographically, or in reality."…Taiwan has watched China grow more aggressive in its foreign policy -- pressuring Japan to avoid defensive ties with Taiwan, asserting Beijing's claim to the Spratlys, building a strategic alliance with and purchasing advanced weapons from Russia. Taiwan has also watched as Chinese reformers, struggling against vested interests in the government and military, have been unable to prop up the shaky Chinese economy. Now, with rumors of a devaluation of the yuan again in the wind, hopes for the continued dominance of reformers in Beijing are fading. With a return to old-school Communist leaders and state-centric economic policies in China, Taiwan can only anticipate a deteriorating cross-strait dialogue regardless of its self-declared status. And while China slowly regresses, the U.S. appears to have lost both leverage and commitment in its China policy…Taiwan, anticipating the worst, may be attempting to sabotage U.S. efforts at reconciliation with China in hopes of realigning U.S. policy in the region…."

BBC News 7/15/99 "…Taiwan says it is monitoring the movement of Chinese forces after China issued its clearest warnings so far of possible military action in response to a row over changing the island's ties with the mainland. Taiwanese defence forces have heightened combat alertness on the frontline Kinmen island in case of possible invasion by China, French News agency AFP quoted an officer as saying, despite denials from the country's defence ministry…."

Reuters 7/15/99 "…The 2.5 million-strong People's Liberation Army (PLA) was ``furiously indignant'' and ``determined enough and strong enough to safeguard the nation's sovereignty and territorial integrity,'' the newspaper said. It heaped personal abuse on Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui, who startled his own people, China and everyone else with a switch in policy which aides now say makes no great change to realities. ``He will certainly be reduced to a criminal of the nation who will leave a stink for a thousand years,'' the Liberation Army Daily said. ``He will certainly be spat on by all Chinese, including Taiwan compatriots.'' …."

AP 7/15/99 "…In a sharply worded commentary run in newspapers nationwide, the military's newspaper, the Liberation Army Daily, said the armed forces stood ready to enforce a long-standing government policy to attack Taiwan, if need be, to uphold China's claim to the island. The commentary echoed warnings delivered Wednesday and carried in newspapers today by Defense Minister Chi Haotian. Chi, a career political commissar in the military, said the People's Liberation Army would ``smash any attempts to separate the country.''…."

China times 7/15/99 "…Taiwan urged China Thursday to settle their simmering row over statehood peacefully but put troops on its frontline Kinmen island on heightened alert amid Beijing's military threats. China, furious at what it sees as "separatist" moves, urged Taiwan to "rein in at the brink of the precipice." And Taiwanese financial authorities rushed to bail out the local bourse which has plunged 7.9 percent over three days amid cross-strait jitters…."

Reuters 7/15/99 Carol Giacomo "…The United States, drawing its own line on the latest East Asia crisis, warned China Thursday it would not tolerate a violent solution to the future of Taiwan. ``We would...consider any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means as a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the United States,'' State Department spokesman James Rubin said. ''That's about as strong a statement as one can make.'' …The Taiwan Relations Act, which governs ties between Washington and Taipei, commits the United States to ''appropriate action'' in response to threats to Taiwan…..Helms backed Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui for ``stating the obvious'' and said ``China is a divided nation made up of two separate and sovereign states,'' as East Germany and West Germany once were. Helms expressed dismay that the Clinton administration, in affirming its one-China policy, sided with China's mainland Communists instead of democrats on Taiwan. He pressed for a reiteration ``of our legal defense obligations to Taiwan.'' …"

AP 7/16/99 "…With Taiwan's stock market plunging on fears of a Chinese attack, Beijing threatened Friday to call off a long-awaited visit by a top envoy if Taiwan doesn't explain suggestions that the island is a separate country…..A Hong Kong newspaper said China might drop its earlier strategy and instead try to capture outlying Taiwanese islets to force Lee to retract his comments. The Hong Kong Economic Times cited unidentified sources in Beijing…..Chi Haotian, the Chinese Defence Minister, said: "The People's Liberation Army is ready at any time to safeguard the territorial integrity of China and smash any attempts to separate the country. Taiwan is a province of China, and China's sovereignty and territorial integrity allow no separation." …"

Reuters 7/16/99 Dan Martin "…Taiwan is unlikely to prove a pushover if Communist China follows through on a renewed threat to crush by force any moves toward Taiwan's independence. China has a massive military -- about 2.5 million active troops, 9,000 tanks, 15,000 artillery pieces, 4,500 fighters and ground attack aircraft and 400 bombers, a small but proven nuclear missile arsenal and, according to state disclosures on Thursday, possibly even neutron bombs. But wealthy little Taiwan has spent billions to amass a wide range of high-tech arms of its own in the 1990s, precisely to counter the ever-present threat from its giant rival. Armed to the teeth, it is capable of dealing mainland China a bad bloody nose in a conventional conflict and is seen by experts as maintaining its edge in technology and logistics for at least another decade…."

NANDO TIMES 7/15/99 "…Furious at what it sees as separatist moves by Taiwan, China has put its southern military regions on alert to go onto a war footing, Hong Kong newspapers reported Friday. Chinese President Jiang Zemin signed a military order on Tuesday telling forces in the southern cities of Nanjing and Guangzhou to be on alert for war preparations, the Sun daily said, citing unnamed sources. The sources said naval and air forces in the Taiwan Strait were also directed to go to combat readiness. Jiang, who is also head of the powerful central military commission, made the orders, saying it was "meaningless" to carry out talks with Taiwan following comments last Saturday by Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui…."

Reuters 7/17/99 "…China has held "wartime mobilization drills'' in its frontline province facing Taiwan amid a row over the island's political status, a Beijing-backed Hong Kong daily said Saturday. Wen Wei Po said seamen gathered for the drills, conducted by the Nanjing Military Region off Quanzhou in southeastern Fujian province, sang: "We will liberate Taiwan.'' The 12-hour exercise Friday involved more than 100 civilian vessels preparing for rapid mobilization during wartime, the newspaper said…."

Reuters 7/17/99 "…China's army, navy and air force plan joint exercises along its east coast in a warning to its rival, Taiwan, which lies about 100 miles offshore, a Hong Kong daily said Saturday. Quoting unnamed sources, the independent Chinese-language Ming Pao Daily said the timing of the exercises and other details had yet to be decided by the military and Chinese President Jiang Zemin…."

Reuters 7/16/99 "…The independent Hong Kong Economic Times newspaper said on Friday China might occupy one or two of Taiwan's outer islands if Taipei showed signs of pursuing independence. Quoting an unnamed source in Beijing, the Chinese-language daily said Chinese Vice-Premier Qian Qichen was likely to issue a formal warning before the army launched any "brief military contact", which could include seizing one or two islands. Another Hong Kong paper, the Sing Tao Daily, said mainland Chinese military movements had been detected in coastal areas facing Taiwan, saying some civilian aviation had been disrupted on Thursday to allow military flights to take place…."

China Times 7/4/99 CAN "...In an article released on Saturday, Parris H. Chang, who is also a Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Pennsylvania State University, said that the US government should warn mainland China that the use of its military to intimidate or destabilize Taiwan is a violation of the TRA and contradicts the 1979 and 1982 Beijing-Washington communiques which obligate the mainland to pursue a peaceful resolution of its dispute with Taiwan. .... Although the Clinton Administration dispatched the US 7th Fleet to the waters near Taiwan in March 1996, when mainland China tried to intimidate Taiwan with live missile testing, it failed to inform the Congress of the crisis, said Chang.....Chang took pains in his article to caution Washington that it has never "recognized" mainland Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan. Instead, it has only "acknowledged" the mainland Chinese position that Taiwan is a part of China. This is well-documented in the three communiques between Washington and Beijing, said Chang. He called on Washington to stick to its stance and refrain from taking a formal position in support of mainland China's assertion that Taiwan is a part of China. In order to avoid any miscalculation on the part of Beijing, Chang said Washington ought to convey the fact that the United States will and must intervene if mainland China acts aggressively toward Taiwan..... Chang said Clinton's statement during his tour of mainland China in 1998 that the United States would not support independence for Taiwan, would not support "two Chinas," or "one Taiwan, one China," and would not support Taiwan's membership in any state-based international organization, deviated from the TRA, which provides in Section 4(d): "Nothing in this Act may be construed as a basis for supporting the exclusion or expulsion of Taiwan from... (any) international organization." He also urged the US Congress to adopt the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act as proposed by senators Jesse Helms, Frank Murkowski and Robert Torricelli on March 24, 1999. This new legislation would greatly strengthen US-Taiwan security ties and mandate the US government to upgrade sales of defense technology and arms to Taiwan, said Chang..."

Stratfor 7/12/99 "…Su Chi, Chairman of Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council, on July 12 confirmed comments made by Taiwanese President Lee Teng-Hui’s in a July 10 interview on Germany’s Deutsche Welle, that Taiwan would now handle relations with China on a "state-to-state, or at least special state-to-state" level. Su said, "This new definition reflects our disappointment over the Chinese communists’ One-China principle. We think the current abnormal relationship across the (Taiwan) strait is the result of the Chinese communists refusing to face reality." Su added, "We have shown our goodwill by calling ourselves a political entity under a One-China policy, but the Chinese communists have used this policy to squeeze us internationally. We feel there is no need to continue using the One-China term." Lee’s remarks drew harsh criticism from Beijing, which called Taiwan’s moves a "dangerous step toward separatism." …. Further remarks within state media, while not directly implicating China’s leader in economic reforms, Prime Minister Zhu Rongji, again pointed out the problems caused by Zhu’s attempts to artificially inflate the stock market to attract foreign investment. The China Securities daily on July 12 reported that a rush on the stock market by individual investors, who pulled money out of savings for the investments, had triggered a liquidity crunch among several Chinese banks. Taiwan may have ascertained that the internal situation in China at this time may effectively limit its ability to react fully to Taiwan’s pronouncement on cross-straits relations. As well, with the hardliners in China likely to beat out the economic reformers, Taiwan may have decided that even when China has sorted out its own internal problems, the new regime will not be one with which it wishes to negotiate…."

AP 7/13/99 "…China intensified its attacks on Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui today, warning that Taiwan should not underestimate Beijing's determination to recover the island. A commentary by the state-run Xinhua News Agency warned Lee not to ``play with fire and risk the fortunes and prospects of the Taiwanese'' by suggesting that China and Taiwan consider each other separate countries….. ``We hereby warn Lee Teng-hui and the Taiwan authorities not to underestimate the firm resolve of the Chinese government to safeguard state sovereignty, dignity and territorial integrity or the courage and strength of the Chinese people to fight against separatism and Taiwan's independence,'' state media quoted Zhu as saying. Zhu urged Taiwanese authorities to ``size up the situation soberly, rein in at the brink of the precipice and immediately cease all separatist activities.'' …"

Wall St. Journal 7/13/99 Marcus Brauchli "…Taiwan officials said their policy change doesn't rule out eventual reunification, but they insisted Taipei now regards relations between Beijing and Taipei as state-to-state matters. That's a subtle but important shift from Taiwan's previous view that it was a "political entity" in international affairs….."This formulation means there is no basis for contact, exchange and communication" between Taiwan and China, Xinhua quoted Mr. Wang as saying. It also will put pressure on the U.S., which has refined its own one-China policy over the years to reflect its unwillingness to support a permanent split between China and Taiwan. President Bill Clinton last year said Washington wouldn't favor a "one China, one Taiwan" or "two Chinas" policy, but reiterated that resolution of the relationship between China and Taiwan was for the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait to settle. A State Department spokesman, James Foley, reiterated that policy on Monday. Still, the timing of Mr. Lee`s comments is awkward for the U.S. and its chief ally in Asia, Japan. Just last week, China failed to win from Japan's visiting prime minister, Keizo Obuchi, assurances that a mutual defense pact between Tokyo and Washington wouldn't include any military action involving Taiwan…."

FOXNews.com 7/12/99 Jonathan Broder "…The Clinton administration, in an attempt to reassure Beijing, on Monday quickly reaffirmed its own policy of one China ruled from Beijing, despite Taiwan’s decision to scrap that policy….. "This is simply not true," said Eric Chiang, the director of information at the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office, Taiwan’s unofficial "embassy" here. He said the Republic of China was established in 1912 and has remained an independent state, even though the defeated remnant of that republic fled to Taiwan in 1949. "The mainland authority has to recognize and admit this reality," Chiang said in an interview. "Otherwise there is no common ground to engage in any serious dialogue." Chiang added that Beijing "can no longer treat us like they are the central government and we are a local government. They have to treat us like an equal partner for us to sit down and talk."….

Washington Post 7/19/99 Joe McDonald AP "...President Jiang Zemin has warned President Clinton that China would consider using force if Taiwan tries to split from the mainland, state media reported today. It was the highest-level threat so far in a Chinese war of words that began earlier this month when Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui said the two governments have ``state-to-state'' relations...In Washington, the White House said Clinton reaffirmed U.S. support for the ``one China'' policy during the call...."

AP 7/18/99 "...President Clinton assured Chinese President Jiang Zemin in a telephone call Sunday that the United States is committed to its "one China'' policy despite Taiwan's moves toward independence. Clinton spoke with Jiang for a half-hour from the presidential retreat at Camp David in Maryland, said White House spokesman David Leavy. He said the two leaders discussed an array of U.S.-Chinese issues, and Clinton reiterated U.S. policy with regard to China and Taiwan...."

Japan Economic Newswire 7/9/98 "...During his recent visit to China, Clinton said the U.S. would not support independence for Taiwan, a 'one China, one Taiwan or two Chinas' policy, or membership for Taiwan in any international organization for which statehood is a requirement. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Tang Guoqiang said, 'Here the implication is very clear, the question of Taiwan is China's internal affair and brooks no interference from any other country.... Clinton's reiteration of the 'three noes' was the first time a U.S. president has publicly made such a statement and resulted in widespread concern in Taiwan that the U.S. was changing its policy on the renegade territory..... Tang reiterated China's strong opposition to the act, which requires the U.S. to help defend Taiwan from aggression, and called it a 'deviation' from the 'one China' principle and from U.S. commitments in the Aug. 17, 1982 joint communique to reduce and eventually end weapons sales to Taiwan...."

China Times 7/19/99 AFP "...Tensions between Beijing and Taipei rose Sunday as China cranked up its war machine with an announcement of large-scale military exercises amid a raging row over Taiwan's status. "Several special forces detachments of the People's Liberation Army have gathered and are holding large-scale military attack exercises in a certain military region," the official Life Times daily reported, without giving details. "The Taiwan situation has suddenly intensified and China's People's Liberation Army stands in combat readiness to firmly defend the unity of the motherland and territorial integrity." It was the first confirmation in the state-controlled press that China was holding military exercises, following comments last weekend by Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui suggesting the island was a separate state from the communist mainland. The report came after sources spoke of other defence-related developments in the coastal Fujian province, facing Taiwan...."

Reuters 7/18/99 Benjamin Kang Lim "...China, keeping up a steady stream of threats in a bitter row over Taiwan's political status, said Sunday its army does not rule out an invasion to crush any attempts by the island to declare independence. The threat was splashed on the front page of Hong Kong's Beijing-backed Wen Wei Po newspaper with a picture of waves of amphibious vessels and vehicles making beach landings. ``Beijing: Will not renounce force to counter Taiwan independence,'' the banner headline screamed. The newspaper quoted an unidentified military official as saying the ``military measures would be taken only if there were no other alternatives.'' ..."

AFP 7/16/99 "... China has ordered a low-level military alert in its southern regions facing the Taiwan Straits amid a tense standoff with Taiwan after the island's president claimed it was a separate state, sources said Friday. "The Nanjing military district was ordered on low-level alert Wednesday," a source close to Chinese officials told AFP. "They are now on a level two alert." The Nanjing military district spans most of the southern seaboard, and in the Chinese military a level two alert is just one step up from normal readiness (level three), with two more levels to go before emergency alert...."

Reuters/FOX News 7/20/99 "…Spokesmen for the Guangzhou and Jinan military regions in eastern and southern China denied a report in Hong Kong's pro-Beijing Wen Wei Po newspaper that they were on alert and that troop movements were under way. "It's all normal training. Troops are not on alert," a spokesman for the Guangzhou military region told Reuters. "It's basic training in the first half of this year and field training in the second half," the spokesman said….."

BBC 7/20/99 "…Soon after reports of the remarks began to circulate, spokesman Zhu Bangzao used a regular press conference to warn Taiwan to restrain itself "before it is too late". … "Lee Teng-hui and the Taiwan authorities must clearly recognise the situation, rein in their actions before it is too late, and immediately stop all activities aimed at splitting the motherland," Zhu added. While last week's announcement that Chinese scientists had mastered the technology of the neutron bomb received prominent coverage in the official media, a heavyweight commentary in the army newspaper, the `Liberation Army Daily' (`Jiefangjun Bao') underlined the message, expressing "extreme indignation" over President Lee's comments…"

AP Annie Huang 7/20/99 "…President Lee Teng-hui today stood behind his claim that Taiwan and China are two states, calling it a necessary step to prepare the capitalist island for talks on eventual reunification with the communist mainland. Lee insisted he was not championing formal independence for Taiwan, which China says would lead to war. But Beijing was not appeased, reiterating its demand for Taiwan to stop ``all activities aimed at splitting the country.''…."

China Times 7/21/99 CAN "…The Ministry of National Defense (MND) reiterated on Tuesday that it is closely monitoring all movements of mainland Chinese troops. The ministry stressed that no unusual or large-scale movements targeting Taiwan by mainland Chinese military have been seen to date, and dismissed as "untrue" contrary reports by the Hong Kong-based Wen Wei Po newspaper….. The officials admitted, however, that using thousands of civilian fishing vessels is one of Beijing's strategies for invading Taiwan, and added that ROC troops are on high alert to prevent such an invasion….Meanwhile, a MND spokesman said troops stationed on the ROC-controlled outlying islands of Kinmen, and Matsu have vowed to fight "until the end" if mainland forces attempt an invasion…."

China Times 7/22/99 "...Seven members of the US House of Representatives have jointly introduced an amendment bill asking President Bill Clinton to demand that mainland China renounce the use of force against Taiwan. The amendment bill, introduced on July 19 while the House was discussing a security bill related to US embassies, also demanded that the US government extend its support to Taiwan when the island faces military threats from mainland China...."

Washington Times 7/21/99 Bill Gertz "....The Clinton administration has halted a visit to Taiwan by Pentagon officials and is considering a cutoff of U.S. military assistance as a sign of displeasure over Taipei's pro-independence comments, U.S. officials said yesterday. ... The group of defense officials going to Taiwan was to have discussed air-defense cooperation, but the visit was called off to register administration anger over the policy shift, said officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity.....China has launched a major propaganda campaign to avert U.S. help with missile-defense efforts in Asia, especially in Taiwan. Additionally, plans to announce the sale to Taiwan of E-2 surveillance aircraft were put on hold because of heightened tensions between China and Taiwan, the officials said...."

The White House 7/22/99 "...THE PRESIDENT: I didn't think this was the best time to do something which might excite either one side or the other and imply that a military solution is an acceptable alternative. If you really think about what's at stake here, it would be unthinkable. And I want -- I don't want to depart from any of the three pillars. I think we need to stay with one China; I think we need to stay with the dialogue; and I think that no one should contemplate force here...."

AP 7/22/99 Christopher Bodeen "...Showing no inclination of backing down in his standoff with China, President Lee Teng-hui said today that Beijing must gradually come to terms with his affirmation of Taiwan's statehood. A U.S. envoy arrived to discuss Lee's new position. Washington's top Taiwan liaison, Richard Bush, brushed off questions from reporters at the airport but said he will meet Taiwanese officials beginning Friday ``to further understand'' the dispute that threatens to destabilize the region. Lee said earlier today his recent controversial statement, that Taiwan and China must deal with one another on a ``state-to-state'' basis, was intended to inject ``positive and friendly meaning'' into dealings between the sides, even though he understood Beijing would find it ``hard to accept at first.'' ....Lee's comments have found broad popular support, despite tensions with Beijing rising to their highest levels since 1996, when China staged threatening military displays in a show of anger over Taiwan's attempts to raise its international profile...."

Washington Times 7/22/99 Bill Gertz "...President Clinton acknowledged yesterday that a Pentagon visit to Taiwan will be delayed because of Taipei's assertions of greater independence from China. Rep. Benjamin A. Gilman, chairman of the House International Relations Committee, responded by vowing to curtail all U.S. arms sales abroad until the White House stops "undercutting Taiwan's national security." At an afternoon White House news conference, Mr. Clinton said of the postponed Taiwan visit, first reported yesterday by The Washington Times: "I didn't think this was the best time to do something which might excite either one side or the other and imply that a military solution is an acceptable alternative. If you really think about what's at stake here, it would be unthinkable." ...."We're concerned about any rhetoric that interferes with effective cross-straits dialogue," White House spokesman Joe Lockhart said about the postponed Pentagon visit. State Department spokesman James Rubin would not comment directly on whether an arms cutoff to Taiwan is under discussion but said: "We haven't made any decision not to provide items that we were previously intending to provide, and any suggestion that we have is simply inaccurate." A senior Pentagon official denied any such cutoff of arms is being contemplated to pressure the Taipei government. The official said the United States is committed to supplying Taiwan with arms and security support. ....A person close to the Taiwan government said the Clinton administration informed Taiwanese officials recently that Mr. Lee's comments were "deliberate sabotage" of U.S. efforts to mend ties to Beijing since the rift over the NATO bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade...."At a time when the United States should be seizing every opportunity to break free of Beijing's definition of 'one China' . . . the Clinton administration is paralyzed by its own anachronistic policy, better known as appeasement," Mr. Helms said at the Senate subcommittee hearing. He said he was "weary of watching our good friends on Taiwan left twisting in the wind by the Clinton strategists for surrender." ...."

SCMP 7/22/99 "...How to punish Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui will dominate the annual Chinese leadership conference in the northern seaside resort of Beidaihe. Until the Taiwan crisis erupted over Mr Lee's definition of cross-strait relations as those between two sovereign states, the Beidaihe conclave, scheduled for early next month, was expected to talk about economic reform. A Beijing source said the leadership under President Jiang Zemin was leaning towards quasi-military action comparable to - if not more severe than - the war drills staged close to Taipei in 1995 and 1996...."

Telegraph [UK] 7/21/99 David Rennie "...Defying predictions in the local media that he would issue a face-saving "clarification" of his original statement on July 9, Mr Lee declared that there would be "one China" - a reference to Beijing's oft-stated principle - only when the two sides had reunified as a democracy. His statements came as a Hong Kong newspaper with close ties to Beijing reported that the mainland's military had been put on alert and had mobilised units in provinces facing Taiwan. A mainland newspaper, the China Youth Daily, added to the sabre-rattling with front-page coverage of special forces exercises in south-east China. A Beijing Foreign Ministry spokesman said Mr Lee had taken a "very dangerous step along the road of splitting the country". Mr Lee, 76, who won Taiwan's first fully democratic presidential election in 1996, said that his government had been elected only by the people of Taiwan, represented only them and had nothing to do with the Chinese mainland....He said: "We are not a local government under [Beijing's] central government." Therefore, "we must conduct interactions with the Chinese Communists on an equal basis with an equal attitude." He made it clear that he was not pushing for independence. But he said: "There is a possibility of one China only after future democratic unification." ..."

SCMP 7/22/99 "...Civilian and military authorities have issued an internal order asking mainlanders to avoid non-essential travel to "frontline" Fujian province. In another development, General Zhang Wannian, Vice-Chairman of the Central Military Commission, has taken charge of preparation of possible quasi-military tactics to be taken against Taiwan. General Zhang, a protege of President Jiang Zemin, played a key role in the series of wargames launched in the Taiwan Strait in 1995 and 1996...."

Financial Times, London 7/23/99 James Kynge "...US pressure on Taiwan to retreat from its tougher stance toward mainland China has created a favourable atmosphere for talks on Washington's rapprochement with Beijing, raising hopes that bilateral talks on China's entry into the World Trade Organisation may be resumed soon. Chinese officials said that Washington's "positive attitude" on the Taiwan issue had helped reduce the mistrust that has characterised relations since Nato's bombing of Beijing's embassy in Belgrade...."

The Washington Times 7/23/99 "...Sorry, but no matter how miffed the White House may be that Lee Teng-hui, president of the Republic of China on Taiwan, had the audacity to speak his mind about Taiwan's relation's with mainland China without asking Washington's permission first, there is no justification for the public spanking now being meted out by President Clinton. Why you would almost think that it was the Taiwanese who had been stealing our nuclear secrets...."

China Times 7/24/99 "...The major opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) called on the United States on Friday not to use Taiwan as a bargaining chip in mending its ties with mainland China. Responding to US President Bill Clinton's "three pillar" principle in regard to the recent tension between Taiwan and mainland China, DPP legislative caucus leader Lee Ying-yuan expressed the hope that American Institute in Taiwan Chairman Richard Bush, who is currently visiting Taiwan, would relay the voice of the Taiwan people to the US government. Washington's "one China" policy and Clinton's suggestion that the Taiwan issue could be resolved if Beijing adopted the "Hong Kong model" are against the free spirit of Taiwan's 21 million people, said Lee, stressing that mainland China's reluctance to denounce the use of force against Taiwan and Beijing's refusal to turn into a democracy are effectively the major barriers to China's unification. DPP Caucus Secretary-General Chen Chi-mai also urged Washington not to sacrifice Taiwan's interest to repair its relations with Beijing, which he said had been damaged by the US' mistaken bombing of Beijing's embassy in Yugoslavia...."

Associated Press 7/25/99 "…In a sign that it has not forgiven Taiwan's assertion of statehood, China will conduct more naval exercises off the southeastern coast across the waters from Taiwan, a pro-Beijing newspaper reported Sunday. Wen Wei Po and several independent Hong Kong newspapers also reported that the People's Liberation Army conducted joint sea and air exercises ahead of August 1, the anniversary of the army's founding, without specifying the exact date…."

Associated Press 7/25/99 Christopher Bodeen "…Increasingly fed up with their wealthy, democratic island's second-class political status, Taiwanese have given strong support to President Lee Teng-hui's remarks - even though many worry about a possible repeat of Chinese saber rattling three years ago that sent financial markets plummeting…."

Reuters 7/25/99 "…China said Sunday there was no longer any basis for talks with Taiwan since Taipei's decision to drop the ``one China'' policy that has underpinned peace between the rival governments. Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui's decision ``to adopt his 'two-state theory' just as cross-straits ties began to warm and on the eve of (senior Beijing envoy) Wang Daohan's visit has damaged cross-straits ties to the extreme,'' the official Xinhua news agency said. ``The basis for Wang Daohan's visit to Taiwan no longer exists,'' the commentary said, referring to a long-scheduled trip to Taipei in October by Beijing's top Taiwan negotiator. While the commentary stopped short of explicitly canceling Wang's trip, it was the strongest indication yet by Beijing that the groundbreaking visit would fall victim to Taiwan's dramatic policy shift…."

The New Australian 7/26/99 Peter Zhang "…In a show of shameless political obeisance that is even remarkable for Clinton, he publicly admitted that he had personally told Jiang Zemin on the phone that he opposed Taiwan's move to secure its liberty and was urging it to toe Beijing's line. As if to demonstrate his loyalty he went so far as to even publicly humiliate Lee Teng-hui, Taiwan's President. Sources have strongly intimated that Clinton promised Jiang that despite the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act which would allow the island the necessary assistance to defend itself he would do whatever was possible to circumvent the Act, and that he would make Lee Teng-hui aware of this fact. In addition, it is believed that certain Taipei officials have complained bitterly about the role that Kenneth Lieberthal, the National Security Council's chief China specialist, played in the affair. Lieberthal's pro-Beijing sympathies are so strong that Taipei officials consider him to be nothing but Beijing's catspaw. It was this behind the scenes pressure (or should I say treachery?) that 'persuaded' Lee Teng-hui to backpedal on Taiwan's right to independence. (No wonder Jiang reckons he got a bargain.) …"

China times 7/26/99 AFP "…Chinese Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan on Sunday warned the United States against stoking the flames of independence in Taiwan and called President Lee Teng Hui a "troublemaker" in US-China ties. Going on the offensive ahead of a key security conference here, Tang said he told US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright during a meeting to act with caution in dealing with the China-Taiwan question. "This is a very dangerous theory," he said of Lee's statements that sought to redefine relations with China as a relationship between two states. "The essence of this two-states theory is to publicly deny the one-China principle and to separate Taiwan from Chinese territory," Tang said in a news conference Tang said he had "seriously pointed out" to Albright that "the US should say little and act with great caution" on the issue of Taiwan, which China regards as a beakaway province…."

Reuters 7/25/99 "…Taiwan is expected to put forward another explanation of its new stance toward China in a further effort to defuse a dangerous row with Beijing, a senior U.S. official said. He was speaking after Richard Bush, head of the organization which manages Washington's unofficial ties with Taiwan, held talks with senior officials in Taipei. China has heaped scorn on Taiwan since Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui on July 9 scrapped the "one China'' policy that has kept peace for decades. Lee said Taiwan-China discussions should take place on a special "state-to-state'' basis…."

Los Angeles Times 7/24/99 "…Over the past three years, the Clinton administration has quietly forged an extensive military relationship with Taiwan, authorizing the Pentagon to conduct the kind of strategic dialogue with Taiwan's armed forces that had not been permitted by any previous administration since 1979, according to U.S. and Taiwan sources. The expansion of military ties began after the Taiwan Strait crisis of 1996, in which China fired missiles into the waters near Taiwan and the United States countered by sending two aircraft carriers to help protect the island. A Pentagon review later concluded that the United States needed to broaden its contacts with Taiwan's armed forces….Clinton administration officials said there are several purposes for the new military ties with Taiwan. One is to reduce Taiwan's sense of isolation, giving its military leaders a greater confidence in their ties with the United States. Another is for the Pentagon to gain better information about the thinking and plans of Taiwan's armed forces. A third is to respond to the Republican-led Congress, which has been strongly supportive of Taiwan…."

SCMP 7/27/99 Barry Porter Vivien Pik-Kwan Chan "…Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan warned the world yesterday against interfering in China's stormy affairs with Taiwan. He also stressed any move towards separatism or foreign forces seeking independence for Taiwan would provoke war. Mr Tang's comments came during high-level international security talks in Singapore…."

AP 7/26/99 "….President Lee Teng-hui fired off new criticism of China on Monday, his strongest words since drawing Beijing's fury by saying China and Taiwan should deal with each other as separate states. China's angry response has been ``regrettable'' and Beijing's threat to use military force against Taiwan reveals a ``hegemonic'' attitude, Lee was quoted as saying in a statement from the presidential office. ``I can't support the Chinese communist's overemphasis on nationalism and hegemonism,'' Lee said. ``This is unacceptable to us.'' China views Lee's statehood assertion as a major step toward declaring formal independence for Taiwan, a development Beijing says would trigger an invasion to forcefully reunite what it considers a rogue province with the mainland…."

SCMP 7/26/99 "…The military has achieved a qualitative "leap forward" with the emphasis being put on "effectiveness and technology", according to the official publication Outlook. The magazine said the PLA had also worked on preparations for high-technology warfare and rapid deployment of its forces. The article, and others on the mainland's military muscle, was seen as part of the psychological warfare being conducted against Taiwan after President Lee's statehood claim….. Beijing had developed a complete system of long, medium and short-range nuclear missiles, and was capable of launching nuclear missiles from sea, by submarine, or from land-based mobile launches, the article said. The magazine praised the ability of the mainland's nuclear submarines, saying they had succeeded in high-speed cruising and were capable of launching nuclear missiles in "very deep" waters. Dozens of models of tactical missiles had reached "internationally advanced levels", it said….. Meanwhile, the Guangzhou military region, one of three facing Taiwan, announced it had developed the mainland's first comprehensive automatic war zone commanding system, thus "greatly strengthening its ability in fighting a modern warfare", the Guangzhou Daily reported. The system combines the functions of command, control, surveillance, communications and electronic warfare, as well as tighter liaison among the region's forces, the paper said. Generals could now prepare a war or logistical plan in a few minutes instead of hours it took in the past, it said…."

Washington Post 7/27/99 John Pomfret "...Last May, the Taiwanese army shortened a military exercise aimed at countering a hypothetical invasion from China. The reason? An endangered turtle species needed protection on offshore islands. A few months earlier, an artillery practice range in Taiwan's Yulin County was closed. The cause? Complaints about the noise. ..."

Washington Times 7/26/99 Paul Craig Roberts "...The Clinton administration cannot stand up to Beijing, because Beijing used illegal campaign contributions to compromise the Clinton administration. The most striking feature of President Clinton's foreign policy is its lack of consistency. A different view would be that his policy is consistent only in its perversity. Compare Mr. Clinton's China policy with his Serbia policy. Mr. Clinton and his minions - for that is what they are - are hot and bothered because Taiwan referred to itself as an independent state. Mr. Clinton has cancelled or delayed various U.S.-Taiwan exchanges, and The Washington Times reports that Pentagon officials are "considering a cutoff of U.S. military assistance to show displeasure over Taipei's pro-independence comments." Taiwan has been an independent state for a half century. But Mr. Clinton cannot allow Taiwan to speak for itself as a state, because it makes China mad. We have a "one-China' policy, says the State Department. We do "not support Taiwan independence." China, whose human rights record is worse than Serbia's, has the Clinton administration by the short hairs. All the communist government in Beijing has to do is acknowledge that it made campaign contributions to Mr. Clinton and provide the evidence. That would blow Attorney General Janet Reno's cover-up of the illegal affair and send some Democrats off to prision...."

South China Morning Post 7/28/99 Reuters "...China's navy is conducting mobilisation exercises in waters across from Taiwan, the semi-official China News Service said on Wednesday. The drills, attended by senior military officials, were the second naval manoeuvres reported by the domestic media since Taipei enraged Beijing earlier this month when it scrapped its ''one-China'' policy. ..."

http://www.cato.org/dailys/08-04-99.html 8/4/99 Ted Galen Carpenter "...Taiwan has re-emerged as a potential flash point in relations between the United States and the People's Republic of China. Lee Teng-hui's apparent abandonment of the "one China" principle and his insistence that Taipei-Beijing relations are to be conducted on a "state-to-state" basis caught the Clinton administration by surprise.... Although Taiwanese officials are now insisting that Lee's comments were misconstrued and did not constitute a change in policy, that assertion is greeted with widespread disbelief internationally. In any case, the upsurge in tensions between Taipei and Beijing is causing uneasiness in America. Although the United States has no explicit obligation to defend Taiwan, it is likely--as Clinton's comments suggest--that U.S. leaders would not stand by if the PRC engaged in coercion...... Even as Clinton parrots Beijing's view that Taiwan has no right to statehood (or even limited international recognition) the president implies that the United States would come to Taiwan's rescue if the island were attacked. The sending of such mixed signals virtually invites trouble...."

China times 8/5/99 AFP "...Nearly 10,000 Chinese soldiers have volunteered to take part in any operation to stop Taiwan from seeking independence, a Hong Kong newspaper reported Wednesday. The People's Liberation Army officers and troops wrote to the powerful Central Military Commission to offer their services in the "liberation warfare" against Taiwan, the South China Morning Post said quoting a military source. But the Beijing leadership has yet to decide what action to take against Taiwan, the report added...."

AP 7/29/99 "...A widespread blackout in Taiwan left millions of residents without electricity early Friday and caused chaos on roads after traffic lights went out. The outage, which began late Thursday, cut power to areas throughout Taiwan and Kinmen, an island near the China's coast, media reported. The sudden blackout sparked fear among Taiwanese that Beijing was planning an attack on the island, which China considers a renegade province. By early morning power had been restored to about 66 percent of the capital, the state-run Taiwan Power Company said...."

China Times 7/31/99 AFP "...China Friday said Taiwanese president Lee Teng-hui had under-estimated Sino-US relations and warned Washington would not support Taiwan's independence....According to the China Daily, Lee is mistaken if he believed Washington would come to the assistance of an independent Taiwan. "The United States will not support Taiwan independence, will not support creating 'two Chinas' or 'one China, one Taiwan," the commentary said....The paper stressed that Washington did not want to see the inclusion of Taiwan in international organisations...."

Business Week 8/9/99 Stan Crock Michael Shari "...The bellicose rumblings from Beijing are giving Asian governments a bad case of the jitters. China refuses to scale back on the warlike rhetoric targeting Taiwan, which has edged closer in recent weeks to asserting its independence. Beijing's argument with Manila over some potentially valuable real estate in the South China Sea has gotten nasty. And a bold assertion by the Chinese that they have the neutron bomb is reminding its neighbors how lethal an Asian arms race could be. So Asian governments want an insurance policy--and they're looking to Washington to get it. That's an interesting twist: Some regional leaders who once decried U.S. meddling are suddenly scrambling for a spot under America's security umbrella. That could mean an increase in the U.S. military's already considerable influence in the region. But Washington has to tread carefully: It wants to help its friends without arousing the ire of an already irritated China...."

China Times 7/29/99 C.N.A. "...Twenty-six US senators sent a joint letter to the White House on Tuesday, warning the Clinton administration not to pressure Taiwan to renounce its recent statement on relations with mainland China. The senators included 25 Republicans and one independent. The letter, initiated by Jesse Helms (R-N.C.), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations committee, on July 21 won the endorsement of all Republican heavyweights in the Senate, including Senate President pro tempore Strom Thurmond, Senate Majority Leader

Trent Lott and Senate Majority Whip Don Nickles. Helms initiated the letter on the same day that the Clinton administration sent emissaries to Taipei and Beijing, respectively, in an effort to defuse possible escalation of cross-strait tension over Republic of China President Lee Teng-hui's definition of cross-strait ties as a "special state-to-state relationship." The senators pushed US President Bill Clinton to express support for the democratically elected ROC president and Taiwan people's rights to pursue a higher international profile as well as to ask Beijing through his envoys to renounce the use of force against Taiwan....."

Reuters 7/31/99 "...Taiwan said China seized a freighter carrying supplies to front-line Taiwanese troops Saturday, as tension ran high between the Communist mainland and Nationalist island. A mainland coastguard vessel halted the Taiwanese ship as it took provisions to the heavily-fortified Taiwan-held island of Matsu, close to the Chinese coast, Taiwan authorities said. "The boat owner reported that the ship with 10 crew on board was forced by four armed policemen to go to the mainland," a marine police officer told Reuters...."

Reuters 7/31/99 "...A Chinese coast guard vessel seized a Taiwan freighter carrying supplies to the front-line island defense outpost of Matsu Saturday, Taiwan authorities said. The freighter was accused of smuggling and the seizure comes amid a tense sovereignty dispute between Nationalist-ruled Taiwan and Communist China. ``The boat owner reported that the ship with 10 crew on board was forced by four armed policemen to go to the mainland,'' a marine police officer told Reuters. Shipowner Wen Nung-ti contacted by Reuters said the coast guard had accused the crew of smuggling electrical appliances to the mainland...."

South China Morning Post 7/31/99 Jason Blatt Bibien Pik-Kwan Chen "...Beijing yesterday rejected a letter from a senior Taiwanese negotiator intended to placate its anger over Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui's "state-to-state" relations remark. The Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait refused to accept the letter faxed to Beijing by Taiwan's Straits Exchange Foundation, Xinhua said. ...."

Statfor.com 8/1/99 GIU "...With tensions rising between China and Taiwan, China has made it clear that it is prepared to use military force should Taiwan move too far in the direction of full separation from the mainland. This is, of course, largely a matter of rhetoric. Taiwan is a fully independent state, regardless of political mythology, and functions as an independent country. Nevertheless, rhetoric has led to wars and Beijing is threatening one. The question is what military actions are available to Beijing. Analysis The most obvious option is the invasion and occupation of Taiwan. The most obvious is also the most difficult..."

The Washington Times 7/30/99 Bill Gertz "...The Clinton administration has made punishing Taiwan its main policy option in the dispute between Taipei and Beijing over Taiwan's assertion it should have a "state-to-state" relationship with China. China perceives the remark as a statement of independence and a threat to the "one-China policy," which the United States endorses. As a rebuke, the United States has held up announcement of a planned arms sales to the island, and the visit of a Pentagon delegation to Taiwan was put off. Now comes word that the chief of the U.S. Pacific Command and the leader of the 100,000 troops in the region would not defend Taiwan if it declared itself an independent state and not a part of China. Adm. Dennis Blair, the commander in chief, Pacific, or Cincpac, expressed the Clinton administration's pro-Beijing views in meetings this week with members of Congress and staff. Adm. Blair said Taiwan has become "the turd in the punchbowl" of U.S.-Chinese relations. If Taiwan declared independence, "I don't think we should support them at all," the admiral told several congressional aides. The remark was the clearest sign the administration is aligned with the communist regime in China and would not live up to its defense obligations under the Taiwan Relations Act to prevent an armed aggression against the island...."

AP 8/1/99 "... Chinese police who seized a Taiwanese cargo ship near Taiwan's military outpost of Matsu Island are detaining the crew on board the vessel, a Taiwanese lawmaker said Sunday. The freighter's seizure Saturday comes amid increased tensions between the two sides over a dispute about Taiwan's political status. However, Taiwanese officials say the two events are not related. China claimed the ship was smuggling, an allegation the boat's owner denies...."

http://www.timesofindia.com/010899/01worl11.htm 8/1/99 AFP "...The Pentagon has announced the ``possible'' sale to Taiwan of two E-2T Hawkeye 2000E aircraft and related technology. Taiwan needs the aircraft ``to augment its present operational inventory and its self-defence capacity,'' the Pentagon said in a statement Thursday. Taiwan already has four E-2Ts in its air force. Besides the Hawkeye reconnaissance patrol aircraft, the sale will include two AN/APS-145 radar, two T56-A-427 engines, two OE335/A antenna groups, two mission computer upgrade/advanced control indicator sets and two passive detection system upgrade of software laboratory, it said.

Also included in the transaction --valued at $400 million -- will be spare and repair parts, support and personnel training, the added. ``The proposed sale of this equipment will not affect the basic military balance in the region,'' it said...."

AFP 8/2/99 "...China has ordered a level-two military alert for People's Liberation Army (PLA) forces on the coast along the Taiwan strait, a newspaper reported Monday as a row with Taiwan continued to rumble. The powerful Central Military Commission ordered the alert, one step above normal readiness, in southeast Fujian province after Taiwan's semi-official Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) backed Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui's call for "state-to-state" ties, the Sing Tao Daily said, citing unnamed sources in Beijing. The independent Chinese language paper said "inland PLA forces have started to move toward the coast off Taiwan Strait, with airports in the province busy with military planes landing and taking off, while food provisions are being delivered by roads and rail" to Fujian. Unconfirmed reports from Beijing last month also said that PLA troops on the coast facing Taiwan had been placed on a level-two (yellow) military alert...."

Fox Newswire/AP 8/2/99 "...Back in the days when Communist Party propaganda was the only truth in China, engineer Ma Feihong used to think of Taiwan as close to hell on Earth. Today, he knows otherwise. "The government used to say that Taiwan was a very miserable place and that we had a responsibility to liberate them,'' Ma said. "Now we know that they have much higher incomes, a much better life than in China. So who should liberate who?'' The way the government paints it, the Chinese people are united in wanting to see China and Taiwan reunited. In reality, popular emotions are far more varied. The spectrum ranges from people who say they would wage war to retake Taiwan to those who say they understand why the wealthy, democratically governed island is in no hurry to rejoin the mainland....."

http://www.worldtribune.com/index-one-text.html 7/29/99 Vivien Pik-Kwan Chan and Agencies "... President Lee Teng-hui elaborated for the first time yesterday on why he believed ties between Taiwan and the mainland were on a "special" state-to-state basis, pointing to an ethnic bond between the people of both sides. "There exists a special feeling between the Chinese people on both sides of the strait that enables them to mutually better understand each other and, thus, should make them respect each other more," said Taiwan's leader. He rejected Beijing's accusations that he was a troublemaker for asserting statehood for Taiwan, arguing he was seeking to bring the two sides together in a "new China"...."

Associated Press 8/2/99 Elaine Kurtenbach "...Once again, Beijing is using missile tests and war games to intimidate the island it views as a rebel province. Angered by Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui's insistence that the rival governments should deal with each other as one vstate to another, China has turned up the pressure..... Military analysts had anticipated that China would test a new long-range missile this summer, possibly the Dongfeng 31 intercontinental missile. Although such tests usually are secret, this time Beijing was expected to publicize the launch to apply extra pressure on Taiwan. Xinhua's report said Monday's test of a long-range missile was conducted in Chinese territory. No other details were given. Given the mere 90-mile distance between China and Taiwan, long-range missiles probably would not directly affect the island. But they could pose a threat to the United States, which, to Beijing's annoyance, is committed by law to help Taiwan defend itself...."

State department 8/2/99 James Rubin "...Rubin said China's test August 2 of a ballistic missile having a range of 5,000 miles and capable of carrying payloads of up to 1,500 pounds was no surprise.....He added, "We do not have any basis to conclude that the timing of this launch is linked to the issues with Taiwan. This test firing has been expected for some time."....Rubin said the Clinton Administration has decided to sell two E2T early warning aircraft as well as additional spare parts to Taiwan. The spokesman said the decision is "fully consistent with the Taiwan Relations Act."..."

Washington Post 8/3/99 Johm Pomfret Steven Mufson "...Chinese and Taiwanese fighter jets have flown hundreds of sorties over the past three weeks along the center of the narrow strait of water that separates the two sides, in what analysts called the sharpest military escalation of tension in the area in three years. One U.S. official called the Chinese sorties "saber rattling," but as the jets have flown closer and closer to each other's shores, the Clinton administration has become worried that the show of force could accidentally lead to actual conflict....."

Hong Kong Standard 8/3/99 Pamela Pun "...THE seizing of a Taiwan freighter by a mainland coastguard vessel over the weekend was a political message to Taipei, mainland sources said yesterday. And the freighter, Shin Hwa, and its crew are not likely to be released in the near future as the semi-official bodies handling cross-straits ties are currently not functioning, the sources added. Quoting relevant officials in charge of Taiwan affairs, the sources said it was the first time a mainland coastguard vessel launched anti-smuggling activities beyond the middle line between mainland coast and Matzu...."

Las Vegas Sun 8/3/99 AP "...Concerned with increased military flights by both China and Taiwan over the Taiwan Strait, the U.S. government warned on Tuesday of a possible accident and advised both sides against anything that would heighten tensions. "There has been a pickup of activity by both sides," said Pentagon spokesman Kenneth Bacon. "We urge both sides to show restraint." Bacon and State Department spokesman James P. Rubin said, however, that the number of flights has been much higher in the past and said there was no need to be overly concerned. "There have not been extraordinary actions or developments in the strait at this time, and we hope that there will not be," said Bacon.... "It's certainly something we're monitoring very closely, and we're aware that there have been a fairly large number of sorties flown by both China and Taiwan military aircraft," he said. "And any time you have military aircraft flying this close to each other in these numbers, there is concern about accidents." ..."

Washington Post 8/4/99 John Pomfret "...Taiwan in a dangerous game of chicken. And the United States has added to the tension with its announcement Monday that it is selling $550 million worth of weapons to Taiwan. Relations between China and Taiwan have hit their lowest point in three years since Lee's announcement on July 9 that Taiwan wanted to forge "special state-to-state" relations with China. Lee's new formulation marked a major break with the "one China" diplomatic framework that has kept peace between the two sides for decades. ... "

China Times 8/4/99 "...Mark P. Lagon, Council on Foreign Relations fellow at the Project for New American Century, wrote in the latest issue of "National Review" monthly magazine that Taiwan politics aside, President Lee Teng-hui's recent suggestion that cross-strait dialogue should be seen as "state-to-state" negotiation shows "Taipei may have wished to claim statehood before the military balance between Taiwan and China got any worse." The PRC is intense about acquiring high-tech weapons, a larger missile arsenal and the means for air superiority -- all making the seizure of Taiwan feasible in about ten years, he said. Lagon stated in the article titled "Taiwan Gets Bold" that to his credit, "Lee realizes that it will take boldness to lay the groundwork for the only permissible term of reunification: the democratization of the mainland." What should the United States do? First, he wrote, "stop criticizing Taiwan for being provocative. Doing so only prolongs the current crisis by giving Beijing the sense that we do not back Taiwan, and it undermines efforts to deter China from taking military action against the island." Second, find tangible ways to give Taiwan the help and respect it deserves. "Putting ceilings on levels of consultation with a democracy is simply wrong. Higher-level contacts, arms sales, and theater-missile-defense cooperation will likely deter a PRC attempt at reunification by force," he said...."

http://www.chinaonline.com/top_stories/c9080651.aspn 8/6/99 Lester Gesteland "...Taiwan's United Daily News reported today that fighter jets from China and Taiwan are "frequently" coming into close proximity in the airspace over the Straits. In an earlier report, the paper stated that Chinese Sukhoi-27s painted two Taiwanese Mirage 2000-5s with target acquisition radar. The Mirages disengaged before either side opened fire or launched missiles. When contacted about the confrontation, the island's air force said the story was "rumor." ..."

AFP 8/6/99 "...China's military leaders have ordered the air force to strike first in any confrontation with Taiwanese fighter jets, a Hong Kong newspaper reported Friday. With tension between China and Taiwan showing no sign of abating, another newspaper said the Chinese navy was practising naval blockades that would prevent any foreign intervention in a conflict. The powerful Central Military Commission ordered regional commands in Nanjing and Guangzhou in southeastern China "to step up low-flying training," the independent Chinese language Ming Pao daily said. The commission, which is chaired by President Jiang Zemin, had given the air force authority to "strike first in gaining the initiative" in any emergency situation that could lead to a clash with Taiwan, the report said citing unnamed sources...."

China Times 8/6/99 "...Chinese air force provocation almost sparked a confrontation with Taiwanese fighter jets, according to a news report Thursday. An undetermined number of Chinese Sukhoi 27s targeted two Taiwanese air force Mirage 2000-5 fighters with their firing control radars Monday, the United Daily News said. Taiwan's air force later dismissed the report as "rumour". ..."

BBC/Sing Tao (Hong Kong) 8/6/99 "...Excerpts from article by the Hong Kong newspaper 'Sing Tao Jih Pao' on 5th August by special correspondent Hsiao Peng (5618 7720); subheadings as published Amid speculation that China and the United States would mend fences and that both sides may resume WTO talks, a Beijing source disclosed that the CCP [Chinese Communist Party] Central Political Bureau recently held a three-day meeting in Beidaihe. It is understood that the meeting made several conclusions. First, Beijing must resolutely wage a struggle against Li Teng-hui's flagrant move to pursue Taiwan independence, prevent the Taiwan authorities from wilfully splitting China and indefinitely stalling China's reunification process, and set a cross-strait reunification timetable. Second, Li Teng-hui's " two state theory" has received secret support from the United States. Third, it was decided that Xi Jinping would be appointed acting governor of Fujian, with Zhao Xuemin and Shi Zhaobin to be named Fujian provincial CCP vice-secretaries in a move to step up readiness for a war against Taiwan and the Fujian front-line leadership... The Beidaihe meeting held that on the political, diplomatic, military, and economic fronts, China must take necessary measures against collusion between the United States and Taiwan independence forces and resolutely crush any attempt by foreign forces to meddle in the Taiwan issue...."

AP 8/7/99 "...Taiwan on Saturday accused China of spreading rumors of military confrontation on the Internet and increasing military flights to rattle the island's financial markets. The Defense Ministry said a Chinese-language Web site registered in the United States but apparently controlled by China posted a false news report on Friday that a Taiwanese F-5E fighter jet was downed by a Chinese SU-27. ..."

The Straits Times 8/8/99 "... The neutron bomb which has the capability to kill people but leave buildings intact will prove effective in an armed assault on Taiwan, a Chinese military journal said. The bomb can be deployed to inflict extensive damage to military targets on the island while leaving buildings minimally affected, reported the latest issue of China's Defence News. Quoting a commentary in the journal, Japan's Sankei Shimbun noted the use of nuclear warfare against Taiwan had caught the attention of military experts...."

Financial Times 8/9/99 Mure Dickie "...Taiwan has called for vigilance against attempts by mainland China to use psychological warfare to undermine confidence amid increased military activity over the narrow strait dividing the two rivals. The announcement from Tang Fei, Taiwan defence minister, came as officials investigated the source of a report falsely attributed to the semi-official Central News Agency that said Taiwanese and mainland fighters had clashed. Local media said the report was posted on an internet site apparently controlled from China. In a further sign that the cross-Strait dispute has gone firmly online, hackers sympathetic to Beijing's stance yesterday attacked the internet site for an arm of the Taiwan government and left messages declaring the island would always be a part of China..."

National Review 8/9/99 Mark Lagon "...How did we get to this point? It's important to remember who provoked whom. In July 1995 and March 1996, China conducted missile tests close to Taiwan during the island's first significant democratic elections. After administration officials unwisely suggested to the press that the U.S. maintained "strategic ambiguity" about whether it would assist Taiwan if the island were attacked, President Clinton sent two aircraft carriers to the Taiwan Strait to put an end to the tests, which were effectively blockading the island's main ports. The carrier deployment might have suggested the benefits of firmness-but the administration subsequently sought to appease Beijing by urging Taiwan not to be provocative. A delegation of former Clinton officials -- including William Perry and Gen. John Shalikashvili -- took this message to Taiwan in January 1998...."

STRATFOR's Global Intelligence Update 8/8/99 "...China has taken to threatening Taiwan again, and people are asking what China will do. We have turned to the question of what China can achieve against Taiwan. In our view, it is not militarily capable of mounting a serious threat. Weaknesses in China's navy and air force mean that Taiwan is capable of defending itself quite readily. If the U.S. goes to Taiwan's aid, which we think it will, China will suffer a massive defeat in attempting to take Taiwan. China knows it. Why is it mounting this challenge? Two reasons: First, to demonstrate Beijing's will against divisive forces inside of China; second, to create a sense of embattlement that justifies increased repression inside of China in the name of patriotism...."

http://www.insidechina.com/news.php3?id=83993 Inside China Today AFP 8/9/99 "...Chinese submarines have been mobilized in seas near the Taiwan Strait and are "awaiting orders" as tensions between Beijing and Taipei showing no sign of abating, a Hong Kong newspaper reported Monday. Some of the Chinese submarines, which participated in recent exercises, had been asked to remain in seas nearest to the Taiwan Strait, the Beijing-backed Wen Wei Po reported, citing military experts. Chinese warships have also stepped up patrols in the Taiwan Strait, while advanced air force fighters have been put on alert, the paper said. ..."

Associated Press 8/9/99 "…A cyberwar has erupted between Taiwanese and Chinese computer hackers lending support to their governments' battle for sovereignty over Taiwan. A Taiwanese hacked into a Chinese high-tech Internet site on Monday, planting on its webpage a red and blue Taiwanese national flag as well as an anti-Communist slogan: ''Reconquer, Reconquer, Reconquer the Mainland.'' A Chinese railroad website and a securities website were hacked into in a similar way….. The Web attacks came one day after several Taiwanese government and academic websites were hacked into by the Chinese, with their webpages erased and replaced by slogans stressing China's sovereignty over Taiwan and warning the island against any moves to split the motherland….. Lin Fu-jen, a Taiwanese computer expert, said Taiwanese hackers, some of whom have written widely damaging computer viruses, are more capable of wreaking havoc on China's computer systems. Lin called on both sides to exercise restraint…."

New York Times 8/9/99 Seth Faison "...Even with all the various versions of "state" being bandied about in Taiwan these days, it still comes as a surprise to hear someone actually talk about statehood. As in, American statehood. Yet David Chou comes right out and says it: Taiwan should become the 51st state of the United States. Chou is not joking. He has a plan. It may never work, but just try telling Chou that. He has been working on it for years...."

Pacific Stars And Stripes 8/10/99 Matt Twomey "...As tensions escalate in the Taiwan Strait, members of the 7th Fleet watch, knowing they could be sent in as they were three years ago to prevent a violent takeover of Taiwan by China. The rhetoric began heating up anew last month when Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui said China must deal with Taiwan on a "state-to-state basis." Lee later claimed this was no move toward independence, but simply intended to establish equal political footing in negotiations for reunification. But it doesn't seem China's leaders are buying that. They're preparing for war - a step they've consistently said they are ready to take to reclaim the island 120 miles off China's southeastern coast. China sees Taiwan strictly as unfinished business, a prodigal son whose destiny is to return to China's fold, just as Hong Kong was dutifully given back by Britain in 1997. As much as the United States claims to be committed to the "one China" policy - that is, that Taiwan is indeed China's province - it was the 7th Fleet, sent by President Truman, that prevented the victorious communists from rolling over the island that the nationalists retreated to a half-century ago...."

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/19990809/ts/taiwan_usa_2.html 8/9/99 Reuters "...Taiwan's president Monday told visiting members of Congress he stood by his controversial call for political equality with China and denied scuttling an aircraft deal to punish the U.S. for not supporting the move...."

Financial Times 8/10/99 Mure dickie "...Taiwan's defence minister yesterday warned that mainland China would maintain military pressure against the island at least until Taiwan's presidential elections next March. But in an apparent effort to ease US fears of possible confrontation, Tang Fei told Benjamin Gilman, visiting chairman of the US House of Representatives international relations committee, that Taiwan would respond "intelligently" to the mainland threat. "The military moves of the Chinese communists will not ease ahead of the presidential election next year," the defence minister's office quoted him as saying..."

Stratfor, Inc. 8/9/99 "...China has taken to threatening Taiwan again, and people are asking what China will do. We have turned to the question of what China can achieve against Taiwan. In our view, it is not militarily capable of mounting a serious threat. Weaknesses in China's navy and air force mean that Taiwan is capable of defending itself quite readily. If the U.S. goes to Taiwan's aid, which we think it will, China will suffer a massive defeat in attempting to take Taiwan. China knows it. Why is it mounting this challenge? Two reasons: First, to demonstrate Beijing's will against divisive forces inside of China; second, to create a sense of embattlement that justifies increased repression inside of China in the name of patriotism...... Beijing's military options are more limited than its rhetoric, particularly if the United States is prepared to defend Taiwan. However, even if the United States were to abandon Taiwan and remain neutral in a Beijing-Taipei confrontation, it is our view that Beijing would face severe difficulties in mounting a serious threat against Taiwan..... China is not likely to achieve air superiority over the Taiwan Straits through a conventional air campaign. Taiwan currently has about 150 F-16s, over 250 F-5s, as well as 60 Mirage 2000s. These are backed up by four Hawkeye battle management platforms, used by the U.S. Navy for air-sea battle management. China's air force has larger numbers of aircraft, but none are as sophisticated as Taiwan's. Taiwan would win any battle for air superiority and would not require U.S. assistance, save possibly for the replacement of munitions. And even this may not be altogether necessary. ..... Strategy aside, politics dictates a defense of Taiwan. Clinton is on the defensive over China. Between campaign finance, spy scandals and a general sense that U.S. policy on China was poorly implemented, the current administration would be placed in an impossible position should China attack Taiwan. Regardless of its intent, the failure of the administration to come to Taiwan's aid would be read as confirmation of the worst charges of its critics. Having aided Kosovo, whose strategic interest to the United States was dubious, the failure to defend Taiwan, whose strategic importance is manifest, would be politically impossible for the Clinton administration. This means that while Taiwan is formidable, we would expect the United States to participate in its defense as well. And China knows all this...."

South China Morning Post 8/10/99 Willy Wo-Lap Lam "...Beijing has moved several elite PLA officers to the Nanjing Military Region leadership in preparation for possible military action against Taiwan. The commander of the First Group Army, Zhu Wenquan, had recently been promoted to chief of staff of the Nanjing region, which oversees the Taiwan area, an army source said. Major-General Zhu was at the same time made a lieutenant-general. Based in Huzhou, Zhejiang province, the First Army is one of the PLA's best equipped units. General Zhu is known in military circles as an expert in amphibious warfare. As chief of staff, he will play a pivotal role in manoeuvres and other means of putting pressure on Taiwan...."

China Times 8/12/99 "...Rear Admiral Timothy J. Keating of the US Navy's 7th Fleet said on Wednesday that the People's Republic of China should refrain from taking any military action against Taiwan. He made the remarks while answering a CNA question at a press conference held aboard the aircraft carrier "Kitty Hawk" in waters adjacent to Pattaya. Keating said Beijing must consider "very carefully" before it takes actions violating the "Taiwan principle,"

because the US military power is larger than China's and Washington is ready to take prompt counter-actions. The "Kitty Hawk," equipped with some 70 various types of jet fighters, will depart for Japan's Yokosuka Harbor via northern Taiwan and the public seas after concluding its visit to Thailand on Aug. 15. .... He went on to say that China will come to know that if they take military action against Taiwan or other areas, they will encounter the US military, which is powerful in its number of personnel, training and war preparedness...."

Washington Post 8/10/99 Michael Laris "...President Lee Teng-hui of Taiwan today publicly played down the significance of recent sorties by Chinese jet fighters over the Taiwan Strait, in an apparent effort to combat what Taiwan views as a campaign of psychological warfare by the Chinese government. .... Lee told an audience of government officials that Chinese fighter jets crossed the dividing line on the Taiwan Strait on two recent occasions, but he dismissed the brief incursions into Taiwan's airspace as mistakes by Chinese pilots. The Defense Ministry also announced that it has detected no sign that China is preparing an invasion, and said China's military does not appear to be planning to conduct large-scale war games in the strait similar to those in 1995-96...."

Associated Press 8/10/99 Christopher Bodeen "...-Taiwanese officials did an about-face Tuesday and confirmed that Chinese warplanes crossed into Taiwan's military airspace twice last month. The Defense Ministry said it had previously denied the crossings because they appeared to have been accidental. The ministry denied the crossings as recently as Tuesday morning, but then released a statement after President Lee Teng-hui mentioned the planes at a government seminar. ``They came over the center line, which is pretty unclear, probably because their planes were flying too fast,'' Lee said. As soon as the Chinese pilots realized where they were, ``they took off as fast as they could,'' he said. The announcement came amid tensions between Beijing and Taipei that have risen to their highest level in years, causing international concern over the possibility of a confrontation...."

Stratfor 8/10/99 "...Concluding two days of talks with Taiwan on August 10, United States Representative Benjamin Gilman (R-N.Y.), chairman of the House of Representatives Committee on International Relations, called for China to "renounce the use of force against Taiwan." Gilman told reporters, "We expressed our concern about Chinese 'sabre rattling' over President Lee's state-to-state remarks and its effect on the confidence on security-building in the region. And we expressed our nation's abiding interest in peace and stability in East Asia and for the peaceful resolution of Taiwan's future. As we leave Taiwan, we are calling upon the People's Republic of China to renounce the use of force against Taiwan." Gilman added that he and the six members of the congressional delegation he led to Taiwan, "recognizing that Taiwan is governed by a democratically-elected president, strongly support President Lee's rights to address Taipei's views of the cross-strait relationship. As a democracy, any change in Taiwan's status should come only with the consent of the people of Taiwan. President Lee should not feel pressured to negotiate until China is a democracy, to negotiate a reunification until such time."...Gilman also said that Lee was justified in calling for state to state negotiations with China, and that China must bear responsibility for damage to security in the region. "It is our view that the two sides should engage in a dialogue with equals," said Gilman. He asserted that Taiwan continues to enjoy considerable support in Congress, and vowed lawmakers would block any attempt by the administration to punish Taiwan or force the island to compromise in negotiations with China. "We understand what President Lee was doing and that he was facing reality and I think we all have empathy for his approach to the problem."..."

International Herald Tribune 8/10/99 "...President Lee Teng-hui told a U.S. congressional delegation Monday that he would not back down from his demand for political equality with China. Mr. Lee told the delegation led by Representative Benjamin Gilman, the chairman of the House International Relations Committee, that he stood by his call for Taiwan-China ties to be conducted on a ''state-to-state'' basis. He said his statement merely ''articulated an undeniable fact,'' a reference to the existence of separate governments on Taiwan and China for the last half-century.

''This is to further clarify and assert that relations on both sides of the strait are equal,'' Mr. Lee's office quoted him as saying....A hacker from Taiwan gained access to a Chinese high-tech Internet site on Monday, planting on its Web page a red and blue Taiwanese national flag as well as an anti-Communist slogan: ''Reconquer, Reconquer, Reconquer the Mainland.'' A Chinese railroad Web site and a securities Web site were hacked in a similar way...."

Hong Kong Standard 8/11/99 "...MAINLAND fighter jets have twice crossed the dividing line in the Taiwan Straits, Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui claimed yesterday. Mr Lee told a meeting of government officials that the incidents involved advanced Sukhoi-27 fighters. However, he said they did not seem to be flying in an aggressive pattern....Meanwhile, all servicemen in the Fujian Military Command Region have been ordered to cancel their holidays, the Hong Kong Standard has learnt. Those on leave have been recalled. Sources said the troops were in a state of ``combat readiness'' and were ``awaiting orders at any time'' since Mr Lee's statehood claims last month The mainland has also activated its civil militia for the first time in 10 years and is training reservists in exercises near the Taiwan Straits, according to an official news agency.

``Nine militia divisions are participating in the exercises under the leadership of instructors from the People's Liberation Army,'' China News Service quoted Fujian Daily as reporting...."

The nation 8/11/99 "...BEIJING: China has activated its civil militia for the first time in 10 years and is training the reservists in exercises near the Taiwan Strait, a military official said yesterday. "Militia men are participating in the exercises under the leadership of 80 instructors from the People's Liberation Army," a spokesman for the mobilisation department of the Fujian Military Command said. Fujian Province is situated in south-east China and sits across the strait from Taiwan. A Hong Kong newspaper meanwhile reported that China has posted several elite PLA officers to its south-eastern region in preparation for possible military action against Taiwan. The army source said the transfer of elite personnel and units to the Nanjing military region indicated that some form of mobilisation had begun in earnest.

The independent Chinese-language newspaper Hong Kong Economic Times reported that senior Chinese leaders decided at their annual summit to exert pressure on Taiwan and to launch military action if the island took concrete moves to seek independence...."

South China Morning Post 8/11/99 Jason Blatt "...The Chinese leadership has decided to use an appropriate degree of force against Taiwan, possibly including the occupation of an outlying island, should Taipei authorities refuse to abandon President Lee Teng-hui's ''two states theory''. Top units including the party's Central Military Commission and the Leading Group on Taiwan have been empowered to decide on the timing as well as severity of the military action to be taken. This is the preliminary decision of the series of leadership meetings at the Beidaihe resort, the bulk of which are due to end this week. A Beijing source said yesterday the options the PLA was considering included the invasion and temporary occupation of an outlying island held by Taipei. ''Hardliners at Beidaihe urged that action be taken soon after the October 1 National Day,'' the source said. ''Moderate elements argued Beijing should wait until the presidential elections in Taipei next March. They said military action should be taken if the new president did not give up Lee's `splittist' stance.'' In the interim, Beijing would step up psychological warfare by moving troops to Fujian and staging manoeuvres...."

8/11/99 Willy Wo-Lap Lam "...It is an unreal city, where the unthinkable - and the irrational - sometimes impinge upon reality and threaten to take it over. Where assumptions about the Chinese destiny risk being stood on their heads.

It is Beidaihe, Hebei Province, where leaders convene every summer for a series of informal, brainstorming sessions... Take Taiwan. The Politburo members and generals gathered in the scenic resort have not decided on how to punish Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui for his so-called "two states theory". Yet the momentum seems to be slipping away from a peaceful, rational solution of the 50-year-old problem. A source close to the meetings said President Jiang Zemin, also chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), had yet to make a ruling on whether to use force to respond to what Beijing perceived to be a Lee-inspired plot to torpedo the "one China" concept. The source said Mr Jiang still wanted to resuscitate the "constructive, strategic partnership" with the United States, which would be shattered by the use of even quasi-military means such as a naval blockade of the island. Yet as of late last week, the hawks seemed to have dominated some discussion sessions on Taiwan. At least one general pinpointed the number of deaths the People's Liberation Army expected to inflict via a "quick, limited war" such as temporarily taking over the Taipei-ruled outpost of Quemoy or Matsu. Another senior officer detailed the several measures PLA forces would take "should the splittists dare to retaliate" against the mainland. These included knocking out not only Taiwan's military installations but also railways, power plants and oil depots Apparently, few participants in the meetings mentioned the economic cost - to Taiwan, the mainland, and Hong Kong. The hawks, of course, had a ready answer for this. They raised the so-called Vietnam analogy, however unconvincing it may sound to observers. Put simply, the hardliners praised Deng Xiaoping for taking "resolute action" against Vietnam in 1979 despite the latter's alliance with the Soviet Union. They claimed the huge sacrifice incurred by China had bought the nation 20 years of peace...."

Rowan Callick, Hong Kong The Australian Financial Review 8/12/99 "...Indications are emerging that China's leading cadres may have sanctioned military action against Taiwan as their annual seaside policy planning session at Beidaihe winds up. No public statement follows such party conferences, whose dates are not disclosed either, but the month-long Taiwan confrontation appears to have become a central focus, despite China's myriad other challenges...."

South China Morning Post 8/12/99 Agencies "...Even with Taiwan, trade setbacks and the bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade troubling relations, Americans want solid ties with China, a US senator told Premier Zhu Rongji yesterday. "I tried to reassure him there is no conspiracy in the United States or the US Congress that is out to get China or derail the relationship," said Republican Chuck Hagel, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, on a visit to Beijing. "We have to come at the China-US relationship in large global terms." Senator Hagel listed North Korea, tensions between India and Pakistan, and Russia as areas where China played an important role. In discussing Taiwan during their hour-long meeting, Mr Zhu did not disclose how the mainland would handle the Taiwan crisis, the senator said....The senator told Mr Zhu that Taiwan was a friend of the US, but US policy recognised only Beijing and supported the eventual reunification of Taiwan and the mainland....While Senator Hagel was trying to build bridges, a senior American navy officer said the mainland was unlikely to resort to force against Taiwan as Beijing knew it would provoke a firm response from the US. Rear Admiral Timothy Keating, commander of a US 7th Fleet aircraft carrier group, said there was no indication the PLA was preparing to use force against Taiwan. Admiral Keating was speaking on the USS Kitty Hawk, which is in the South China Sea region with another aircraft carrier, the USS Constellation. "If they [China] attempt to undertake any sort of operation, whether Taiwan or anywhere, they're going to have the US Navy to deal with," he said...."

South China Morning Post 8/12/99 Jasper Becker "...Mainland state media have heralded a crack commando unit in a sign that Beijing is upping the ante in its psychological warfare against Taipei. People's Daily described the Flying Dragons as a "mysterious" force set up seven years ago by the Nanjing Military Region. The paper described them as "tigers on land, dragons in the sea and hawks in the air" for their ability to carry out combined operations. The rapid reaction force was formed by officer Jiang Jianxiong, a veteran described as having 26 years' experience of special operations warfare...."

Hong Kong Standard 8/12/99 Fong Tak-ho "...AMID cyber warfare and escalating tensions across the Taiwan Straits, more than 215 Taiwan legislators and computer scholars have sponsored an open letter calling for caution over a cyberspace joint-venture in which the mainland's official Xinhua News Agency is one of the investors. Meanwhile, the mainland yesterday boasted that if a real war broke out between the two, the island could not resist for more than five days. ``Once war breaks out, resistance would be four to five days at the most,'' said Business Times News Weekly, which splashed pictures of jet fighters and missiles alongside the story. China.com, a company listed on the United States Nasdaq, was the ``cyber version of a Trojan horse to advance Beijing's political goal of conquering Taiwan'', the Taiwan legislators said in the letter....."

China Times 8/12/99 "...A legislator of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) on Wednesday urged the Executive Yuan to set up an "information warfare center" in order to protect the island's electronic networks.

In light of recent attacks by computer hackers on websites maintained by various Republic of China bodies, including the Control Yuan, Li Wen-chung (Taipei County) said at a press conference that it is easy for hackers to break into government websites and that if potential enemies launch a formal information war, the outcome would be "unthinkable." Lin said he regarded the recent intrusions as just a prelude to an information war rather than a full-on attack...."

China Times 8/13/99 "...Amos Perlmutter, a professor of political science and sociology at American University, wrote in The Washington Times Wednesday that "the only wise act on the part of the American administration has been to enhance Taiwan's strategic and security status by selling them the F-16," he said. The tension between the United States, the People's Republic of China and the Republic of China on Taiwan is mounting. "We do not expect a repetition of the 1996 military confrontation over the Taiwan Strait, but the risk for escalation is still in place," said the professor in an article titled "Taiwan cliffhanger closer to the edge?" Perlmutter accused the Clinton administration of kowtowing to the world's chief violator of human rights, the PRC, while the United States conducted a "humanitarian war" in Kosovo. The conflict between the PRC and the ROC "calls for a clear, courageous, and determined policy on the part of the United States, he said...."

South China Morning Post 8/11/99 Jason Blatt "...The Chinese leadership has decided to use an appropriate degree of force against Taiwan, possibly including the occupation of an outlying island, should Taipei authorities refuse to abandon President Lee Teng-hui's ''two states theory''. Top units including the party's Central Military Commission and the Leading Group on Taiwan have been empowered to decide on the timing as well as severity of the military action to be taken. This is the preliminary decision of the series of leadership meetings at the Beidaihe resort, the bulk of which are due to end this week. A Beijing source said yesterday the options the PLA was considering included the invasion and temporary occupation of an outlying island held by Taipei. ''Hardliners at Beidaihe urged that action be taken soon after the October 1 National Day,'' the source said. ...."

South China Morning Post 8/11/99 Glenn Schloss "...Two US aircraft carriers have conducted exercises in the South China Sea in a move viewed as sending a warning to Beijing as tensions escalate over Taiwan. In a clear show of muscle, the USS Kitty Hawk and USS Constellation and their battle groups were deployed on Saturday and Sunday over a wide area of the sea, much of it claimed by China. It was designed to remind the PLA and Chinese leaders of the deployment of two aircraft carrier battle groups in the Taiwan Strait during the 1996 crisis, analysts said. A United States official said the exercises were deliberately conducted in the South China Sea amid the Taiwan tensions and increasing concern over the Spratly Islands. "This deployment was a nice way to let our friends and potential adversaries know that the US Navy remains committed to maintaining peace and stability throughout the region," the official said. ..."

http://www.scmp.com/news/Front/Article/FullText_asp_ArticleID-19990812005701102.asp 8/12/99 "...The PLA has mobilised thousands of militiamen and reservists, part of a military build-up in the Fujian region to pressure Taiwan.

A defence source said yesterday most of these non-regular forces - including demobilised soldiers - would come from Fujian. The rest of the planned force of more than 500,000 would be drawn from provinces in the Nanjing Military Region, which has responsibility for Taiwan. The source said training had started for thousands of militiamen and reservists. Most have regular jobs and in normal times their main function is to help to maintain law and order..... "To overwhelm the 400,000 strong Taiwan Army by large margins, Beijing has to use a good chunk of the 2.5 million-strong PLA," he said. "And the militiamen and reservists, who won't leave the mainland, will temporarily handle the duties of regular soldiers engaged in the Taiwan theatre." ..."

Washington Post 8/13/99 Michael Laris Steven Mufson "...Chinese Embassy officials and visiting army officers and scholars have told U.S. analysts and experts in Washington that China is considering a new show of military force in reaction to Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui's recent assertion that Taiwan and China should be treated as equals...."

South China Morning Post 8/13/99 Jason Blatt Agencies "...Taiwan denied yesterday that its ally Panama was planning to switch diplomatic ties to Beijing after it was reported that the country's vice-president-elect had visited the mainland. Xinhua reported that bank executive Alberto Vallarino, 48, was invited to the mainland by the Chinese People's Institute of Foreign Affairs and held unofficial meetings with senior officials including Vice-President Hu Jintao. Panama, a Central American republic, is one of only 28 countries to have diplomatic relations with Taipei.

Rumours have circulated in Taiwan over recent years that Panama would switch ties to Beijing, but Panama has consistently denied harbouring such intentions. Taipei's acting Foreign Ministry spokesman, Henry Chen, said yesterday: "Ties between the Republic of China [Taiwan] and Panama stay unchanged." ..."

New York Times 8/13/99 Jane Perlez "...Chinese government officials have warned the Clinton administration that Beijing may be compelled to take military action against Taiwan to "punish" Taiwan for what Beijing sees as moves toward independence, administration officials and China experts said Thursday In reply, Washington has warned the Beijing officials that action by the Chinese against Taiwan would bring retaliation by the United States, officials said. In the last week, the administration has also publicly and privately urged the two sides to resolve the situation between themselves. The message from the Chinese has not come from the very top of the government but from Chinese officials in meetings with administration officials. It was not clear, administration officials said, whether a firm decision had been made by Beijing what precise action would be taken. If military action was taken it could range, they said, from striking at Taiwan to seizing an unpopulated island belonging to Taiwan. Military action against Taiwan itself appeared to be the most unlikely course for Beijing, several administration officials said...."

The Straits Times (Singapore) 8/13/99 "...THE war being waged between China and Taiwan in cyberspace, which led to government websites on both sides being hacked, could well lead to a real war, some analysts have warned. The attacks on the government websites had prompted concerns about Taiwan's ability to protect its electronic information infrastructure. Internet security expert Chang Hui-kuan warned of Taiwan's vulnerability in this area. "Following the break-in, the government simply deleted the malicious information, without providing further information on how the system could be protected from future attacks. This makes us wonder if the government has the capability to counter any form of cyber-attacks," he said. Military experts warned that a simulated war in cyberspace could well degenerate into a real war. "The advance of information-technology and its ease of mastery by civilians has added a new dimension to modern warfare: war can be more easily waged than before, not by military establishments or politicians, but by civilians well-versed in technology," said strategist Alex Kao...."

Pacific Stars And Stripes 8/14/99 Micool Brooke "...China's leaders know their country will have the U.S. Navy to contend with if the current tensions with Taiwan escalate into an invasion, a senior U.S. naval officer said Thursday. But Rear Adm. Timothy Keating said there was no indication China planned operations against Taiwan and insisted that it was a coincidence that two U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups were operating within quick reach. Keating, commander of the USS Kitty Hawk battle group that just concluded scheduled exercises with Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia, said the Navy brought a "stabilizing influence" in the Pacific. "China will know if they attempt to undertake any kind of operation - whether it's Taiwan or anything - that they are going to have the U.S. Navy to deal with," Keating said. "We are there in numbers, we're trained, we're ready and we're very powerful," Keating said....."

Reuters 8/13/99 "...Chinese officials have warned the Clinton administration that Beijing feels compelled to use force to punish Taiwan for recent statehood assertions, former U.S. officials involved in the issue said Friday. The Wen Wei Po, a Beijing-funded newspaper in Hong Kong, Friday intensified psychological pressure on Taiwan, saying military conflict could erupt at any moment. Commenting on reports of the Chinese warning, David Leavy, spokesman for the White House National Security Council, said, ''Any effort to resolve the issues in the cross-straits by other than peaceful means would be of grave concern to the United States. That hasn't changed.'' .... "

http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/apbreak.htm 8/13/99 George "...Chinese officials are sounding out U.S. specialists on how the Clinton administration might respond to military action against Taiwan following tentative Taiwanese moves toward independence. The Clinton administration repeated a longstanding warning Friday that it would view with ``grave concern'' any effort to settle the conflict with Taiwan by other than peaceful means. U.S. officials said there was no evidence of war preparations by China. ``It's the United States government judgment that there aren't any extraordinary developments or signs that there is a mobilization on the PRC's part,'' said National Security Council spokesman David Leavy. Of immediate concern to the administration are the military aircraft that China and Taiwan have been flying in the Taiwan Strait over the past week. U.S. officials have said an accident involving rival aircraft could have unpredictable consequences. One analyst said any Chinese action against Taiwan would have ruinous effects on Chinese ties to the West, threatening China's highly profitable trade with the United States and killing indefinitely China's hopes of joining the World Trade Organization...."

China Times 8/14/99 "...Military conflict in the Taiwan Strait can erupt at any moment, a Beijing-backed Hong Kong newspaper reported in front page headlines Friday. But with China's military preparations virtually impossible to verify, China watching diplomats and observers all face the same problem..... There have been several reports of a military buildup on the Chinese coast facing Taiwan. But the US Defense department said Thursday it had no information of any concentration in Fujian province...."

US Government 8/13/99 State Department Briefing "...We have not seen any extraordinary developments or signs that the PRC is mobilizing for military action in the Taiwan Strait. Of course, we continue to monitor the situation very closely but we have received no warnings or special communications. We've continued contacts with both the PRC and Taiwan urging that neither side take any steps inconsistent with a peaceful resolution of their differences...."

Strait Times 8/14/99 Lee Siew Hua "...The majority in Congress has been muted in the response to the row across the Taiwan Strait, with the exception of a highly vocal core of anti-communist legislators who have always sided with Taiwan. Until China makes aggressive military moves, a watchful silence is likely to prevail in the US Congress rather than outright hostility. Essentially, there is respect for the "one China" policy. And the reality is that the current tension is still at the level of a rhetorical war and has not sunk to the dangerous depths of 1995 and 1996.....This time, Congress has generally been less hostile, for now, while the administration moved decisively to quieten both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Its sequence of words and deeds have included sending envoys to Taiwan and China on parallel missions, and allowing a situation for two aircraft carriers to conduct a "passing exercise" in the South China Sea.

Apparently, the State Department had argued that the USS Kitty Hawk should remain in Australia and not pass the USS Constellation. But the Pentagon prevailed, and the exercise was a signal to China, and the region, that the US stood ready to maintain peace and stability. Intended or not, that action would also show Congress that the Clinton administration was not going to be soft on China...."

New York Times 8/14/99 Seth Faison "...If military conflict breaks out between China and Taiwan any time soon, military experts say, it is as likely to begin on this little island as anywhere. A mere three miles off the coast of southeast China, Matsu still belongs to Taiwan, which is more than 100 miles away. By its location alone, Matsu is highly vulnerable to attack from the Chinese army, and is guarded by a slim force of about 6,000 Taiwan soldiers..."

AP 8/14/99 "...Questions about China's intentions arose after Chinese officials sounded out U.S. specialists on how the Clinton administration might respond to military action against Taiwan. Douglas Paal, president of the Washington-based Asia Pacific Policy Center, said he had been visited separately by Chinese military, government and academic representatives. He described the meetings as ``much more intense'' than interviews he regularly has with them.

Paal said China regards the current difficulties with Taiwan as being more serious than the situation in 1996 when Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui engaged in a campaign to gain greater international recognition for Taiwan. He said the Chinese asked how the administration might respond to various possible situations but avoided describing specific scenarios that might suggest what they were considering. The Chinese talked about the possibility of capturing small, outlying Taiwanese islands, then appeared to back away from that option as too ambitious, Paal said. They also raised the possibility of attacking ships. The Chinese seemed to be carrying out a cost-benefit analysis, Paal said. ``They're in the process of trying to make a decision, and they want to know what the outcome would be,'' he said. James Mulvenon, a Chinese army specialist at the Rand research organization, said he also was approached by Chinese emissaries. ``They walk in with the same message,'' Mulvenon told The Washington Post. ``'We're going to do something. We can't tell you what, but we're going to do something.' The goal for China would be to cause maximum impact in Taiwan without bringing in the United States.'' ..."

REUTERS 8/14/99 "...The independent Sunday Morning Post newspaper said China's People's Liberation Army garrison in Hong Kong had been put on alert because of rising tensions between Beijing and Taiwan. "The 1,000 soldiers, sailors and aircrew guarding the SAR (special administrative region of Hong Kong) were said to have been placed on the third level of alert, the lowest of three rankings,'' the Post said under a banner front-page headline.

Citing a well-informed source, it said the third level alert meant helicopter gunships and missile boats had been placed on 24-hour readiness and holiday leave for soldiers and officers had been cancelled. No one was available at the PLA garrison in Hong Kong for an immediate comment of the report. The Post's source also said there was evidence electronic warfare units and equipment had been moved from inland regions of China into position near Xiamen in Fujian province, facing Taiwan. It said this was a sign of growing preparedness for possible military action by Beijing...."

The Star (Malay) 8/15/99 "...US China specialists say Chinese officials have been asking them how the US might respond to a variety of possible military actions against Taiwan in the wake of tentative Taiwanese moves toward independence. The Clinton administration repeated its longstanding warning that it would view with "grave concern" any effort to settle the conflict with Taiwan by other than peaceful means. It said there was no evidence of war preparations by China. "It's the United States government judgment that there aren't any extraordinary developments or signs that there is a mobilisation on the PRC's part," said National Security Council spokesman David Leavy said on Friday. Of immediate concern to the administration are the military aircraft that China and Taiwan have been flying in the Taiwan Strait over the past week. US officials have said an accident involving rival aircraft could have unpredictable consequences. One analyst said any Chinese action against Taiwan would have ruinous effects on Chinese ties to the West, threatening China's highly profitable trade with the United States and killing indefinitely China's hopes of joining the World Trade Organisation...."

The Straits Times 8/15/99 "...The Chinese military is studying various options, including the use of the latest space weapons, in the event that war with Taiwan breaks out, it was reported yesterday. Separately, a former employee of the Chinese Commission of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defence said that China had succeeded in producing a cruise missile with such precision that it could even hit Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui's office desk.

Hongkong's Ming Pao Daily News quoted sources as saying that the Central Military Commission was looking into the various possible military tactics and was keen to engage in a war against Taiwan..."

C.N.A. 8/14/99 "...Taiwan's military is capable of deterring an attack by the mainland Chinese cruise missiles which Beijing authorities claimed have been successfully developed and deployed in major bases targeting Taiwan, a military strategist said on Saturday. Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) Vice Chairman Lin Chung-ping, who is a Beijing military development expert, said Taiwan cannot afford to underestimate mainland China's military research and development capabilities. Taiwan should watch closely not only the People's Liberation Army's ballistic missile attacks, but also the overall "acupuncture point poking" warfare capability that the PLA may launch at any moment, Lin warned. Acupuncture point warfare refers to the application of information or other technologies to paralyze an enemy's military command and control centers. Lin said cruise missiles are comparatively more threatening to Taiwan than ballistic missiles, as cruise missiles are self-contained bombs that can cruise and change course according to geographic changes. Moreover, cruise missiles cannot be detected and are not easily destroyed...."

Nando Media 8/14/99 AP "...The independent Sunday Morning Post newspaper said China's People's Liberation Army garrison in Hong Kong has been put on alert because of rising tensions between mainland China and Taiwan.

"The 1,000 soldiers, sailors and air crew guarding the SAR (special administrative region of Hong Kong) were said to have been placed on the third level of alert, the lowest of three rankings," the Post said under a banner front-page headline. Citing a well-informed source, it said the third level alert meant helicopter gunships and missile boats had been placed on 24-hour readiness and holiday leave for soldiers and officers had been canceled...."

Hong Kong Standard 8/14/99 "...US fighter jets went through combat drills near Taiwanese airspace to help deter any mainland military moves, a newspaper has reported. For several consecutive days in late July and early August, F-14 and F-18 jets from a US aircraft carrier practiced drills off Taitung in southeastern Taiwan, the China Times Express quoted unidentified Taiwanese sources as saying. The paper did not name the US carrier or say how far from Taiwan's airspace the US jets flew. The drills were held after Washington called on Chinese and Taiwanese military to exercise restraint _ at a time when the mainland air force was apparently contemplating military action over Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui's ``two-states'' comments, the newspaper said. In another incident, the newspaper said, a group of 10 Chinese Jian 7 and Jian 8 jets flew near the centre line of the Taiwan Straits. They were heading north when one jet suddenly turned east and crossed into Taiwan's airspace by 50km _ just two minutes flying time from the island.

The jet turned back to join the other mainland jets before Taiwanese military jets were about to respond, the report said. Meanwhile, weather satellites in the Pearl River Delta in Guangdong province have been disturbed by unidentified electromagnetic wave last week. Unidentified ``black holes'' appearing in the satellites' cloud charts over the past seven days showed they might be caused by abnormal air force manoeuvres in the southern province...."

China Times 8/17/99 "…Taiwan hackers have so far hacked 19 websites in mainland China, while hackers from the mainland on Monday infiltrated the website of the Investigation Bureau of the Justice Ministry, indicating that the "computer war" across the Taiwan Strait is continuing. A communist Chinese flag on the homepage of the Investigation Bureau was the latest twist in the cross-strait Internet war…."

stratfor.com 8/16/99 "…2055 GMT, 990816 Taiwan/China/United States – Taiwan President Lee Teng-Hui met with a delegation from the U.S. House Military Affairs Subcommittee August 16 and reaffirmed his "special state-state relationship" between Taiwan and China. Lee said that Taiwan’s mainland policy remains unchanged despite China’s hegemonic attitude. The delegation is jointly led by Senators Lindsey Graham and Solomon P. Ortiz. Both men say they support Lee’s statement and Graham stated that Beijing’s "one country, two systems proposal is doomed to failure."... "
China Times 8/17/99 AFP "…Taiwan authorities have launched a probe into claims that more than 34,000 Taiwanese have been "absorbed" by rival China's intelligence units, a report said Monday. The Taipei-based China Times said Beijing had stepped up spying on the nationalist island, cashing in on civil exchanges beginning in the late 1980s. Taiwanese paid some two million visits to the mainland each year either for visiting relatives, doing business or sight-seeing. Quoting Chinese documents, the paper said 34,477 Taiwanese were working in Chinese intelligence units, including 12,423 in Fujian province and 3,000 in Hainan….."

China Times 8/19/99 "…The Republic of China government is concerned about a probable meeting between US President Bill Clinton and his mainland Chinese counterpart, Jiang Zemin, in New Zealand in September, Foreign Minister Jason Hu said on Wednesday. Hu was responding to an announcement on Tuesday by the US Department of State that Clinton will attend the annual informal leadership meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum to be held in New Zealand from Sept. 12-13. As usual, Clinton is expected to take advantage of the annual event to hold bilateral talks with top leaders from other APEC countries, including mainland China. …. Hu said it remains unclear whether the coming Clinton-Jiang talks will focus on Taiwan-related issues, and added that he is also not sure at the moment whether Clinton and Jiang will meet outside the APEC framework. Beijing has intensified its saber-rattling against Taiwan since ROC President Lee Teng-hui defined relations across the Taiwan Strait as a "special state-to-state relationship" in an interview with a German radio station on July 9….."

The Straits Times 8/18/99 Ching Cheong "…TAIWAN will step up its fight against disinformation and espionage by China which, it says, threaten the island's security. The Defence Ministry, in a classified document, said there were over 300 Chinese agencies responsible for disseminating false information to create panic in Taiwan. These agencies came under one of these 12 organisations or groups: Central Military Commission, Ministry of Defence,

Second and Third Departments of the General Staff of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), Liaison section of the PLA's Political Department, Ministry of National Security, United Front Department, Ministry of Foreign Affairs,

Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, Xinhua news agency, some academic bodies, some senior members of the National People's Congress and third-country business organisations in Taiwan….. The stories, the document added, were carried by The Sun, Ming Pao Daily News, Sing Tao Daily, South China Morning Post, Wen Wei Po and China News Agency in Hongkong. Foreign newspapers which carried the reports included the Sankei Shimbun, New York Times and Washington Post. Defence Ministry spokesman Kung Fan-ting confirmed that his ministry had double-checked the reports against its own information and found all 15 stories to be false….. On another front, the National Security Bureau (NSB) said on Monday that it had recently intercepted a classified document belonging to China's State Security Ministry. It showed that as many as 34,477 Taiwanese were spying for China. province alone recruited 12,423 -- or 36 per cent -- of the spies. Eighty-five were recruited by the PLA, 95 by the Chinese Communist Party organisations and 198 by various government ministries. The rest worked for the provincial authorities. The NSB considered the rate of infiltration "alarming"…."

Sydney Morning Herald 8/19/99 David Lague "…China's Army warned yesterday that it was willing to sacrifice lives to block independence for Taiwan as Beijing continued its psychological war against the Taipei Government. The 3-million strong People's Liberation Army also disputed Western claims that its hardware was obsolete with a reminder that it had submarine-launched nuclear weapons, advanced missiles and modern tanks. In a front-page commentary, the official Liberation Army Daily, the PLA mouthpiece, said Taiwan's heavy spending on high-technology weaponry would not be enough to avert defeat. It reminded Taiwan that 50 years ago during the civil war the PLA, armed with just "millet and rifles", had defeated the 8 million-strong Nationalist forces armed with American weapons. "We would rather lose a thousand soldiers than lose an inch of land," the paper said…."

China Times 8/20/99 AFP "…China on Thursday kept up pressure on Taiwan, warning the United States that it was fully prepared to launch an attack on the island if necessary, regardless of the cost. The official Global Times -- a weekly published by the Communist Party flagship People's Daily -- issued the warning in a lengthy commentary under the front-page banner headline "USA, do not mix in." …"

China Times 8/19/99 AFP "…A top Chinese leader Thursday warned Hong Kong's media not to support or publicize remarks made by Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui that Taiwan should have "state-to-state" relations with China. Vice Premier Qian Qichen was quoted by Hong Kong media as saying it was "inappropriate" for Hong Kong people to openly publicize Lee's call for a separate status, which Beijing considers a call for a totally independent Taiwan. In a meeting in Beijing with visiting Hong Kong Justice Secretary Elsie Leung, Qian said such a move could be "an offence against the Chinese government's 'one China' policy and the policy of the State Council." …"

China Times 8/19/99 C.N.A. "…The United States Department of Defense said Tuesday that it is not aware of any extraordinary activity by mainland Chinese Marines. Meanwhile, when asked whether the United States has gradually reduced the quantity and quality of arms sales to Taiwan in accordance with the Aug. 17 communique signed with Beijing in 1982, State Department spokesman James Rubin said, "We believe we have lived up to all the communiques (signed by Beijing and Washington) as well as the Taiwan Relations Act." The Xinhua News Agency reported Tuesday that mainland Chinese Marines were training for an amphibious landing somewhere in the South China Sea. …"

Defense Department USIA 8/17/99 "…Q: On China. The Xinhua, official Chinese news agency report in a piece denouncing the Taiwan independence, statements that Marines were training for an amphibious landing somewhere in the South China Sea. Is the Pentagon aware of anything? Are there any concerns about a Chinese amphibious assault on Taiwan? BACON: China has about 5,000 Marines, an extremely small force. It has a very small fleet of amphibious vehicles, amphibious craft. The Marines are based generally down in the south in a place called Zhanjiang and they have standard training. We're not aware that there's anything extraordinary going on with the marines, aside from their normal training…."

CNA (Taiwan) 8/19/99 Jay Chen and Sofia Wu "….Mainland Chinese President Jiang Zemin has written a letter to US President Bill Clinton demanding him to cease arms sales to Taiwan amid the controversy over the "special state-to-state relationship" theory. According to reliable sources, Jiang sent the letter to Clinton between late July and early August. Jiang demanded in the letter that the United States cut arms sales to Taiwan and force Taipei to back off its "state-to-state" theory and start negotiations with Beijing under the so-called "one China" principle…."

Reuters 8/19/99 "…China's ambassador to the United States warned against U.S. politicians exploiting the crisis over Taiwan Thursday but expressed confidence it would not cause lasting damage to U.S.-China relations.

Ambassador Li Zhao Xing called a news conference to repeat Beijing's denunciations of Taiwan's President Lee Teng-hui's call for political equality with China and to restate Chinese policy not to rule out use of force to achieve reunification. Asked whether he was worried that the issue would be blown up by pro-Taiwanese American politicians in early skirmishing for next year's U.S. presidential election, Li said, "Yes, we are concerned.'' Some contenders for the Republican nomination for next year's U.S. presidential election have come out in favor of strong U.S. intervention should China take any military action against Taiwan. …"

Sydney Morning Herald 8/20/99 David Lague "…China warned yesterday that it was ready to fight over Taiwan and that its nuclear weapons could "deal with" aircraft carriers if the United States dared to interfere.... A hard-hitting editorial in the official Global Times newspaper, a subsidiary of the Communist Party mouthpiece, the People's Daily, said the US and other Western countries were mistaken if they believed China lacked the ability or will to use force in a dispute over Taiwan.... "

Strafor, Inc. 8/19/99 "…0135 GMT, 990819 Taiwan has grounded its entire F-16 fleet following an accident, thereby depriving the island of a significant measure of its defensive capabilities. The move is inexplicable in geopolitical terms, especially at this tense period. However, it may make sense if seen as a message by Taiwan to China. …..Despite the official reassurance, the 150 F-16s are a vital part of Taiwan’s air defense capability, which, as we have said before, constitutes a critical defense capability for Taiwan…..All of this leads us to believe that, while the crash was no doubt an accident, Taiwan meant this grounding as a signal. Realizing that the game has gone on long enough, the Taiwanese could be lowering its sword to signal to the Chinese that enough is enough and that the situation should be resolved. Unfortunately for Taiwan, there’s no reason to believe that China can accept this action as a legitimate de-escalation. China has told that world that it has to punish Taiwan. It simply can’t afford to withdraw without some type of action. Another possibility is that Taiwan is lowering its sword to make itself look weak in an attempt to "bait" China into action. A direct invasion of Taiwan is still a fantasy, but an attempt at the islands of Matsu and Quemoy is seen by all sides as a real possibility…."

Stratfor.com 8/20/99 "…China has once again raised the level of its threats against Taiwan, warning in an article in the Global Times that, "If the Taiwan authorities think the mainland can only launch a propaganda or psychological war, they are mistaken." Included in the article, entitled "USA, do not mix in," China claimed that it "has already finished all preparations for any use of force against Taiwan." In addition to threatening Taiwan, however, China also warned that no external force could protect Taiwan, and, in a statement directed at the United States, that, "China’s neutron bombs are more than enough to handle aircraft carriers." China is now clearly signaling to the United States that it intends to act over Taiwan President Lee Teng-Hui’s state-to-state comments. More importantly, China is also informing Washington that, if the U.S. interferes, China will not hold back as it did in 1996. For the United States, China’s warnings necessitate a careful calculation of its potential responses to a variety of possible Chinese actions and the ultimate consequences of those responses for both the U.S. and China…."

The Straits Times 8/20/99 "…Chinese President Jiang Zemin has written to US President Bill Clinton to urge Washington to stop arms sales to Taipei, reports here said yesterday. The China Times Express quoted reliable sources in Washington as saying that the Chinese leader wrote to his US counterpart between late last month and early this month, but has yet to receive a reply. In his letter, Mr Jiang was said to have called on the United States to stop its arms sales to Taiwan. He also wanted Washington to "compel" Taipei to forsake its "two states" theory and to hold talks with Beijing on a clear "one China" premise…."

Hong Kong Tung Fang Jih Pao in Chinese 8/15/99 "…Taiwan's Kung-Shang Shi-Pao [The Commercial Times] disclosed [date not mentioned] that Beijing and Washington had an under-the-counter deal on the Taiwan visit by Wang Daohan [chairman of the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait] and they agreed to settle the Taiwan issue in accordance with the Hong Kong formula. The deal, however, was sabotaged by Li Denghui's two-state theory, which has given rise to a big uproar. ... Under this plan, Wang Daohan, during his planned visit to Taiwan, would propose to Taiwan to reach an "intermediate agreement" that will encourage Taiwan to accept the "Hong Kong formula" but will give Taiwan more liberal treatments than those for Hong Kong; and Washington would exercise pressure on Taiwan to compel Taiwan to accept the Mainland's peaceful reunification policy.

According to the paper, the under-the-counter deal might be the fuse that led to Li Denghui's "two-state theory," which displeased both Beijing and Washington; and US authorities even wanted to punish Taiwan because of the theory. ... after Li Denghui presented his two-state theory, Clinton openly mentioned the "Hong Kong formula" at the White House press conference, and why the postponement of Wang Daohan's Taiwan visit still has not been announced. The sources said that, because the US proposal was beneficial to the reunification of the two sides, Beijing, for the first time, permitted the United States to be "involved in its internal Mainland policy." …"

Associated Press 8/20/99 "…China denounced Taiwan's attempt to regain its seat in the United Nations, and warned Thursday that the island's affirmation of statehood is threatening the stability of the Asia Pacific region. In a letter to U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan, China's U.N. Ambassador Qin Huasun said the attempt to create ``two Chinas'' in the United Nations ``would only fan the flames of Taiwan's separatist activities and hinder China's peaceful reunification.'' …"

AFP 8/20/99 "…Taiwan Premier Vincent Siew will meet US President Bill Clinton in Panama next month during the inauguration of Panama's new president, a move bound to incense China, a newspaper reported here Friday. "Siew is expected to deliver a personal letter from President Lee Teng-hui to Clinton," the Economic Daily News said. The foreign ministry confirmed that Siew would be going to Panama, a diplomatic ally of Taiwan, for Mireya Moscoso's inauguration as president, but government spokesman Chen Chien-jen dismissed the report as "groundless." …"

Financial Times 8/20/99 Mure Dickie "…Taiwan yesterday moved closer to the creation of an island-wide defence system designed to protect it against missiles fired by mainland China, a plan likely to heighten tensions between Taipei and Beijing. The cabinet said it would forward proposals for the development of the shield - an extension of existing anti-missile batteries already deployed around key cities - to the legislature next month….."

The Economist 8/21-27/99 "… Mr Lee’s remark, which he has repeated many times, has brought cross-straits relations to a dangerous point, especially for the United States. Certainly, China is sounding more belligerent. The rumble of tanks through Beijing on August 16th, rehearsing for a giant military parade to mark the 50th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic on October 1st, helped make its anger seem noisier. Chinese marines exercising in the South China Sea "would not sit by and watch the split of any inch of the motherland’s territory," announced the official party newspaper, the People’s Daily….. And he may have reckoned he must speak now or never. Of late Taiwan has seen the Americans trying to cosy up to China. Relations were soured by the bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. However, China can see one, welcome constant in Chinese-American relations: the consistent affirmation by the Clinton administration of its adherence to the "one-China" policy. This has been reaffirmed repeatedly since Mr Lee’s controversial remarks. Meanwhile, some of the once-solid pro-Taiwan support in Washington has slipped away, a victim of political realities…. Those Americans who were already turning less sympathetic to Taiwan have become even cooler since his remarks. Some now see him as endangering the United States’ interests by dragging it into a clash with China. All the more reason, perhaps, for Mr Lee to persist with his red-baiting. After all, says Andrew Yang Nien-dzu, secretary-general of the Council of Advanced Policy Studies in Taipei, his political problems really will begin if the mainland does not react "belligerently or irrationally". ….. So a rational leader of China would not attack Taiwan now. And the Chinese leadership does seem to have hoisted on board the lessons of 1995-96: that military half-measures achieve nothing, no matter what a small but vocal band of aggressive generals in the People’s Liberation Army may say. On the other hand, caution some, Mr Lee has limited China’s room for manoeuvre. Not only has he changed the rules of the game but, according to a recent survey, 77% of Taiwanese happen to think he is right…."

South China Morning Post 8/25/99 Willy Wo-Lap Lam "…

In addition, PLA authorities would regularly update the Politburo on preparations for possible military action against the "breakaway province". …"

8/23/99 Xinhua "…foreign minister tang jiaxuan told omar mustafa al-muntasser, a special envoy of libyan leader muammar qaddafi, in a meeting today that china appreciates the flexible, practical and wise attitude of the libyan government in handling the lockerbie problem and praised libya's contribution to calming regional conflicts and strengthening unity on the african continent. muntasser discussed the latest development in africa and expressed appreciation for china's support for the just cause of palestine and the arab people…..

AP 8/24/99 "…Sorties by Chinese military aircraft over the Taiwan Strait have declined for the first time since last month's standoff over Taiwan's affirmation of its statehood, Defense Ministry officials said Tuesday. But, the officials declined to provide details on numbers or types of aircraft they have detected. They also refused to say whether the fewer number of sorties meant a lessening of tensions sparked by President Lee Teng-hui's remarks on Taiwan's statehood. "Chinese communist warplanes are pursuing scheduled military exercise preparations, and the number of sorties shows a declining trend," said military spokesman Kung Fan-ding. China's ballistic missile corps, one of the mainland's most potent weapons against Taiwan, also showed no sign of unusual activity, Kung added…."

Wall Street Journal 8/24/99 Connie Ling "…What's in an Internet-domain name? Nothing less than national pride, say a group of Taiwanese scholars and lawmakers. At the center of the controversy is the Internet address taiwan.com, which registered by highflying portal operator>China.comCorp. China.com trades in the U.S. on the Nasdaq Stock Market, but is also partially owned by China's state-run Xinhua News Agency. "This is completely misleading," says Cheng Pao-ching, an opposition lawmaker in Taiwan. "How can a site controlled by the Chinese government represent Taiwan?"…. Taiwan.com is part of the greater China portal network run by Hong Kong-based China.com, which also includes the portal sites china.com and hongkong.com….."

ChinaOnline News 8/20/99 "…Sources in Washington report that Clinton Administration officials are worried about the increased likelihood of military action by China against Taiwan. Li Zhaoxing, China’s ambassador to the U.S., cautioned the U.S. yesterday to stay out of what China considers to be "an internal affair." He also said Beijing would not rule out force to stop Taiwan seceding or to counter "foreign intervention." Li reiterated China’s opposition to American arms sales to Taiwan and called for a stop to such transactions….. Currently, more than 40,000 Taiwanese-run businesses are operating in China and the island has invested at least US$30 bln to date in the mainland. China’s exports are very reliant on Taiwan investment. Many exporting concerns are assembly plants that put together components imported from Taiwan. Experts point to the 15% of Taiwan’s exports consumed by China, but it is also true that a significant percentage of China’s exports are from businesses setup and managed by Taiwanese. China also relies on technology transfers and management training from Taiwanese entrepreneurs. …."

The Straits Times 8/21/99 AFP "…- In the first official response to Taiwan's plan to seek the cover of a proposed US-Japan missile shield, China yesterday said that it opposed the inclusion of the island in the project and demanded that Washington exclude it from the umbrella. "China opposes the inclusion of Taiwan, by any foreign country, in the project for a Theatre Missile Defence system," said a Foreign Ministry spokesman in a statement. Beijing also opposed "the supply to Taiwan of the TMD system, its equipment or its technology", the statement added. The United States and Japan agreed on Monday to start research on the multi-billion-dollar missile umbrella over the next five to six years. Beijing, which views Taiwan as a renegade province and threatens to use force to end the island's 50-year political estrangement from the mainland, strongly opposes the TMD system as a tool to contain China. …"

CAN 8/26/99 Sofia Wu "…The Republic of China Army unveiled its Sky Bow surface-to-air missile base in Linyuan in the southern Taiwan county of Kaohsiung County on Thursday amid escalation of tension in the Taiwan Strait. This was the first time that the ROC military has opened its Sky Bow air-defense missile base for media coverage. Observers said the move is part of the military's efforts to allay local people's jitters about possible mainland Chinese attacks over the "special state-to-state relationship" controversy. The Army General Headquarters said all Sky-Bow missile units in Taiwan and on offshore islands have completed combat deployment with the assistance of the Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology (CIST) and the Combined Service Force…."

China Times 8/28/99 "…The Republic of China Navy has ordered 11 S-70C anti-submarine helicopters from the United States which be will used to form a second anti-submarine aviation group when they are delivered next year, a navy officer said on Friday. According to the officer, the navy has established an aviation command to step up its anti-submarine capability. In addition to the S-2T anti-submarine aircraft transferred from the air force, the naval aviation command already possesses nine S-70C anti-submarine helicopters, being deployed aboard the French-made La Fayette frigates and the domestically-made Cheng-kung frigates. …"

Weekly Standard 8/23/99 Ross Terrill "…EVERYONE NOW UNDERSTANDS there is a problem with Taiwan's status," said President Lee Teng-hui in a recent conversation with American visitors. But in fact, not everyone does seem to understand this. The United States has become locked into a Beijing-flavored One China policy based on a fiction. Once, it may have been a useful fiction. Now it has become a dangerous one. Taiwan has proved one of the most intractable challenges of the post-Soviet Union world. The issue was born with the Cold War, and the widespread collapse of communism and surge of democracy should give us a clue to its effective management. Our Cold War was not with Russia but with communism. Our problem with China also is communism. In Asia, Cold War still freezes the Taiwan Strait. …Crucially, Chiang Kai-shek's outlook and the political situation within Taiwan during the 1970s lent credence to the Chinese Communists' view, making it plausible for countries that extended recognition to Beijing to settle for the One China concept. But developments within Taiwan starting in the 1980s -- in particular the coming of democracy in the '90s -- have created a fresh context. …"

Forbes 9/6/99 Caspar Weinberger "…Beijing, despite our apologies and reparations, stirred itself into a simulated wild frenzy over our accidental bombing of its embassy in Belgrade. It erupted again over President Lee's statements. In fact, Taiwan had already said as much in 1991-92, when it revised its constitution. But recently, China sent its jet fighters over the Taiwan Strait and, aided by technical information stolen from the U.S., test-fired a new ballistic missile unprecedentedly close to Taiwan. The U.S. response has been to blame Taiwan -- as Czechoslovakia was blamed in 1938 -- and demand President Lee retract his statements. Our position seems designed to continue the appeasement of China that President Clinton began on his ill-fated trip there in 1998. In fact, some of our top military seem intent on currying favor with Mr. Clinton. There is no other explanation for the recent, inexcusable remarks of Admiral Dennis Blair, Commander of the Pacific Fleet. After crude references to Taiwan, he said the U.S. should not defend Taiwan if it declared independence from China. In an earlier Administration, Admiral Blair would have been cashiered promptly, or offered a Naval attache post in Ulan Bator. But the State Department immediately rallied to the cause, saying we were being "scrupulously neutral" regarding China and Taiwan. This is patently not true, and we are encouraging the PRC in an extremely dangerous way….. "

CAN 8/27/99 "…Raymond F. Burghardt, the newly appointed director of the Taipei office of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), said on Friday that US policy toward Taiwan remains unchanged despite a minor personnel change. Speaking at a press conference held exclusively for the Taiwan media, Burghardt, who is expected to assume his Taipei post at the end of August, said Taiwan has seen dramatic changes over the past two decades and has maintained close and cordial relations with the United States. "My job in Taipei is to further strengthen those relations," he said. …Burghardt, the US consul general in Shanghai before being appointed the AIT Taipei director, is also an old acquaintance of Wang Daohan, mainland China's top negotiator with Taiwan, with whom he used to meet at least once a month…."

AFP 8/21/99 "…China on Saturday said Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui's had misled the island's residents into believing they could decide their own fate. "Lee took advantage of the fact that some people in Taiwan have not fully recognised the nature of his separatist remarks, as he misled them by claiming that 'the sovereignty of Taiwan belongs to the Taiwan people,'" the official Liberation Army daily said in a commentary. "The Chinese nation is a large family which includes people on both sides of the Taiwan strait. The 'public opinion' of this big family should reflect the opinions and wishes of the entire Chinese nation, not just those confined to a small region," it said…."

China Times 8/22/99 Jan Liang "…The chinese language China Times of Taiwan reports in their 8-22-99 edition that Bill Clinton decided on the 18th of this month to send a delegation to Taiwan to reduce the cross strait tension between Taiwan and Communist China. The delegation will include officials from three or four departments including State, Defense and National Security. …"

China Times 8/21/99 "… (CNA) Continuing to provide Taiwan with defensive arms is the consistent policy of the United States, and Taiwan will keep a close watch on developments relating to its proposed inclusion in a US missile defense shield, government spokesman Chen Chien-jen said on Saturday. ….. Dismissing Beijing's alleged demand that Washington cut off all arms supplies to Taiwan, Rubin said at a press conference on Friday that the United States would honor the TRA and supply Taiwan with weapons necessary for its defense. Rubin said that although Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui has declared the island's willingness to join the TMD program, weaponry alone would not guarantee the island's security. Instead, the State Department spokesman touted the importance of dialogue in resolving peacefully any disputes between Taipei and Beijing….."

The Straits Times AFP 8/25/99 "…China may launch punitive attacks against Taiwan in the next few weeks if President Lee Teng-hui fails to withdraw claims to "state-to-state' relations, a Hongkong newspaper said yesterday. China was prepared to begin military action such as a blockade of the Taiwan Strait, said the independent Chinese-language Sing Tao Daily, citing unidentified sources in Beijing. It said missiles might be used in the strait. It also quoted a former US State Department official as saying he had received signs that action would take place soon as Beijing did not think the Taiwanese leader would back down…."

Hong Kong Standard 8/23/99 "…THE United States would have to intervene militarily if Beijing launched large-scale attacks against Taiwan, Washington has warned the Chinese leadership through informal channels. Speaking at a seminar organised by the Stanley Foundation, a think-tank for the Democratic Party, a US expert said Washington would take the scale of the mainland's military attack into account. A Chinese academic at the San Francisco seminar quoted the unnamed academic as saying the Americans would consider two factors in determining whether the US would take action to protect Taiwan. One was the scale of the mainland's military action, and the other the estimate of casualties arising from such an attack. The potential for huge casualties may leave the US with no other choice but to come to the defence of the island irrespective of the ``constructive strategic partnership'' that the Americans have with Beijing. Mainland experts at the seminar assured their US counterparts that Beijing was merely taking ``preventative measures'' against the island's attempt to abandon its one-China principle. ``Mainland China is now in a defensive position,'' said a Chinese expert who attended the meeting. ``We told the US side that we are taking preventative measures against any attempt to split the country.'' …"

AFP 8/23/99 "…Taiwan's military will not fire the first shot in a conflict with China but will fight back against any attack from its giant rival, a defense ministry spokesman said here. "We will never pull the trigger first," defense spokesman Kung Fan-ding told reporters during a weekend visit to military bases on islands in the Taiwan Strait, as Beijing heaped vitriol on Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui. He said Taiwan would not make any provocative steps to further aggravate cross-strait tensions, which erupted last month when Lee said Taipei wanted ties with Beijing to be redefined as a "special state-to-state relationship." "We would rather bear the first strike from the Chinese communists," said Kung…."

Heritage Foundation 8/19/99 Harvey Feldman "…The danger of a shooting war through mischance or miscalculation is great. Taiwan's Ministry of Defense has instructed its pilots not to fire first, but no one would be surprised if they returned fire. How the Clinton Administration proceeds in the next few weeks could mean the difference between defusing these tensions or military intervention….. Sec. 2(b)(6) of the TRA requires the United States to maintain the "capacity to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan." To reduce the threat of war, the Administration should make clear to Beijing that it will not tolerate any military action against Taiwan and that any aggression will be resisted by U.S. forces in the region. Such a response followed China's threatening military exercises in the Strait on the eve of Taiwan's presidential election in March 1996. The U.S. Navy deployed two aircraft carriers and 36 ships and submarines to the region to defuse that situation. For the longer term, the Administration must distance itself from public or veiled support of Beijing's views regarding Taiwan. It is not up to the United States to determine Taiwan's future status. This right belongs to the people of Taiwan alone, not to a government in distant Washington. Although the United States no longer recognizes the ROC diplomatically, the Taiwan Relations Act establishes that, for all purposes of U.S. law, Taiwan is to be treated as a state separate and distinct from the PRC…."

BBC Summary of World Broadcasts 8/23/99 Ta Kung Pao "…Text of report by Hong Kong newspaper 'Ta Kung Pao' on 21st August 'Kexue Shibao', which is sponsored by the Chinese Academy of Science, today published in its first page an article by Chinese military research expert Ling Haijian, entitled "Taiwan military bases are all within China's firepower net," which describes the situation if war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait. The article conducted a comprehensive analysis on the outcome of the military balance between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait from the perspective of the strength of ground, air, and naval forces. It added that "as Taiwan's various military bases are all within the scope of strikes for mainland's firepower, pre-emptive measures taken by the Chinese People's Liberation Army [PLA] will certainly cause heavy loses to Taiwan." The following is the full text of the article: ….. "

China Times 8/23/99 "…Cheng Pang-cheng, chairman of the Independence Party, announced his entry into the presidential race on Sunday. Cheng called for the development of nuclear weapons as a counter measure against Beijing, and lambasted Lee Ao, the New party's presidnetial candidate, as a "foreigner" for advocating reunification with mainland China. In a ceremony to announce his candidacy, Cheng vowed to declare an end to the Republic of China and replace it with the Republic of Taiwan In order to safeguard Taiwan's security, Cheng advocated the development of a nuclear weapons program to counter military threats from Beijing…."

Wall Street Journal 8/23/99 Helene Cooper "…The 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, which stipulates that an attack by China on Taiwan would be a matter of "grave concern" to America, is deliberately ambiguous about what the U.S. response would be. The act authorizes the U.S. to sell defensive weapons to Taiwan, but doesn't commit the U.S. to deploying troops to defend the island. Adding to the confusion is that for the past six weeks, the Clinton administration has been demonstrating its ire with Taiwan -- not China -- for igniting the latest flap over Taiwan's relationship with China…..President Clinton, Mr. Kagan says, should be warning Beijing explicitly that the U.S. will back Taiwan to the hilt if China launches an attack. "We should be saying, 'Don't even try it,' " he says. "You make it clear in words, and in positioning of military assets, that you will not tolerate it." Publicly, however, U.S. efforts to cool the situation have largely been aimed at Taiwan after statements by its president, Lee Teng-hui, that relations between Beijing and Taipei should be treated as "state to state." President Clinton has repeatedly reiterated U.S. support for a one-China policy. The Pentagon canceled a military visit and arms sale to Taiwan. A succession of top Clinton administration officials warned Taiwan not to further roil the waters and provoke China into military conflict. The trouble is, the U.S. was already in the doghouse with China when tensions kicked up -- following trade clashes and the errant NATO bombing in May of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade -- and officials don't want to further inflame Beijing…."

Houston Chronicle 8/27/99 Paul Greenberg "…WHOEVER located the U.S. State Department in Foggy Bottom had a natural feel for symbolism. Our secretary of state is in her usual cloudbank, uncertain about what to do about the two Chinas, except to keep insisting on the fiction that there is only one. Madeleine Albright may be as lackluster as her predecessor, ol' what's-his-name, but she's so much more forceful and active about it. At the moment, she's giving off conflicting signals like a traffic light stuck on red, yellow and green. Not since Dean Acheson put South Korea outside the American "defensive perimeter" has the State Department given a potential aggressor so clear an invitation. And the Pentagon has done its part by calling off a military mission to Taiwan. Our military, too, seems resolved to be irresolute…."

South China Morning Post 9/8/99 Agencies "...China will eventually reunify with Taiwan no matter what the cost, the People's Daily said yesterday. "No matter how grim the situation is, no matter how tortuous the road is, the Chinese Government and the Chinese people will surmount all difficulties and ultimately complete the great cause of reunifying the motherland," the flagship paper said.... The warning came just one day after a senior American official urged China not to use force, saying the United States would probably respond to any military attack against Taiwan. ...."

South China Morning Post 9/7/99 AP "…Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui on Tuesday said ''truth and justice'' would prevail eventually to allow broader international recognition of Taiwan's statehood. Taiwan would continue to push to return to the United Nations and other international organisations, despite being blocked by China, Mr Lee said opening a summit with Central American and Caribbean allies in Taipei. ''With the support of our allies, we will continue to call out internationally, and deeply believe that justice and truth will one day be upheld,'' Mr Lee said. Taiwan held the Chinese UN seat until 1971. It walked out of the United Nations just before other members voted to give its seat to the People's Republic of China….."

CAN 8/31/99 Huang/Wu "...Officials and academics from the Republic of China on Taiwan, mainland China and the United States are meeting in New York amid escalation of tension in the Taiwan Strait over the "special state-to-state relationship" controversy. The closed-door roundtable meeting, also known as "Track II" Taipei-Washington-Beijing dialogue, is being sponsored by the National Committee on American Foreign Policy (NCAFP). This is the fifth time that the private US think tank has organized this kind of three-way unofficial conference since mid-1997. Such roundtable discussions, mainly aimed at reviewing the general situation and policy developments on both sides of the Taiwan Strait and seeking solution to cross-strait issues or disputes, usually do not have a fixed agenda and the meeting results have never been published. ...Taiwan delegate Kao Ying-mao said the main function of the roundtable meeting is not necessarily to seek definite agreements or conclusions. "The main purpose is to exchange ideas and opinions so as to boost mutual understanding," he added. ....Some sources said major topics to be discussed at the Aug. 30-31 roundtable will include whether mainland President Jiang Zemin will push US President Bill Clinton to explicitly promise "no US support" for the "special state-to-state" theory when they meet in New Zealand in September; as well as the possibility of cross-strait military confrontation; possible US reaction in the event of a mainland attack on Taiwan; US arms sales to Taiwan; and the feasibility of Taiwan's participation in the US-initiated theater missile defense (TMD) system. (By K. C. Huang and Sofia Wu) ..."

China Times 8/29/99 AFP "…Taiwanese Premier Vincent Siew will leave for Panama Monday for the inauguration of Panama's new president, a government spoksman said Saturday. Siew and his delegation will make a stopover in Los Angeles before flying to Panama City to attend the inauguration of the newly-elected Mirea Moscoso, spokesman C. J. Chen said. Panama is one of 29 countries that have established diplomatic relations with Taiwan, which Beijing sees as a breakaway province that should not be recognised as separate from China…."

REUTERS 8/30/99 "…Taiwanese Vice President Lien Chan on Monday vowed no letup in the island's struggle with China if he is elected president, saying Taiwan's blossoming democracy deserved the world's respect. Mr Lien, newly confirmed the Kuomintang's candidate in Taiwan's March 18 presidential election, blamed Beijing for tensions across the Taiwan strait. He told a news conference Taipei's demand for recognition of its exiled Republic of China government aimed to counter Beijing's ''one country, two systems'' proposal for ending the island's political estrangement from China. ''Today in the United Nations, the Chinese communists, with their allies in the world, can block us on the diplomatic front. By their view, the Republic of China no longer exists,'' he said. ''Shouldn't we let everyone in the world know the Republic of China not only exists, but that it exists as a prosperous, free democracy that continues to grow and to blossom?'' …."

The Australian 8/31/99 Paul Kelly David Armstrong "…ON the eve of his visit to Australia, the President of China, Jiang Zemin, has insisted on China's right to use force to reunite with Taiwan - but has offered Taiwan guarantees on autonomy and its economic system. In an exclusive interview with The Australian in the Great Hall of the People, Mr Jiang said that China's preferred policy was reunification by peaceful means, but this needed the support of a military option to be effective. "It is the shared aspiration of the entire 1.2 billion Chinese people to settle the question of Taiwan at an early date," Mr Jiang said….."

China Times 9/1/99 AFP "….Chinese President Jiang Zemin has insisted on China's right to use force to reunite with Taiwan in an interview with two Australian editors published here Tuesday. Speaking in Beijing on the eve of departure for his first visit to Australia, Jiang said China's preferred policy was reunification by peaceful means, but warned this needed the support of a military option to be effective. "It is the shared aspiration of the entire 1.2 billion Chinese people to settle the question of Taiwan at an early date," he told The Australian's editor-in-chief David Armstrong and international editor Paul Kelly in Beijing. "If China were to undertake not to use force, the peaceful reunification of China would become hollow words." Jiang begins an official visit to Australia on September 6 amid rising concerns here that the China-Taiwan issue could at the very least unsettle a harmonious relationship between Beijing and Canberra…."

The New Australian 8/16-22/99 Peter Zhang "…There is no doubt in Asia that Clinton is solely responsible for the Taiwan crisis. That an American president could be so incredibly stupid in his dealings with Beijing leaves Asian leaders both stunned and filled with contempt for the Oval Office. I have tried to stress that the Clinton's administration is a foreign policy disaster. And its most disastrous failures have been in China. Instead of working to strengthen China's reformist trends it has acted to strengthen its militaristic tendencies by rewarding bad behaviour. The more Chinese militarists behaved badly the more the Clinton administration did everything within its power to minimise their threat to American security. The administration deliberately, and criminally, ignored Beijing's acquisition of weapons of mass destruction, its rapid attempts to try and modernise its armed services, the mischievous role it has played in nuclear proliferation, its application of US high-tech imports to military uses. As I said elsewhere, the effect of brushing aside China's reformists in favour of appeasing Chinese militarists is to strengthen them at the expense of US security. Rewarding bad behaviour guarantees more of the same. This is why China is now engaged in a fierce sabre rattling exercise over Taiwan…. As usual, most Western commentators have missed the vital point. China's aggressive noises are warnings to the rest of Asia and are signalling how much the regime holds the US in contempt….."

China Times 9/5/99 "…Chinese President Jiang Zemin delivered a new warning to Taiwan Saturday, saying the nationalist island had courted "grave danger" by calling for state-to-state relations with Beijing. Jiang told an audience of Thai and Chinese businessmen here that "blood was thicker than water" across the Taiwan Strait and that bonds between Taiwanese and Chinese could never be broken….Lee extended an olive branch to China on Thursday, saying reunification with the mainland was his eventual goal, despite a current military build-up designed to repel any mainland attack. China has repeatedly threatened to use force to stop Taiwan declaring independence from the mainland, which has considered the island a renegade province since the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949….."

Hong Kong Standard AFP 9/6/99 "…Taiwan Premier Vincent Siew and the head of the US institute which handles relations with the island have held a meeting in New York. Saturday's meeting was held about a week before the summit in New Zealand between US President Bill Clinton and his Chinese counterpart Jiang Zemin….. ``The broad smile, the trademark of Siew, was not seen on his face, sparking speculation about the content of the meeting,'' the television said. …….Mr Bush assured Taipei that Washington would honour its commitments to the island and called for a peaceful settlement of disputes with the mainland. But he also described the one-China principle as ``the cornerstone of US policy''. And US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said later that Taiwan must do more to explain its controversial statehood call…."

COMTEX NewswireSaturday 9/4/99 "…China will stage land, air and sea military exercises in the waters off an archipelago close to Taiwan, a Beijing-backed newspaper in Hong Kong said Saturday. Chinese sources said the People's Liberation Army (PLA) will soon begin two-day war games in the southern part of the Zhoushan archipelago in coastal Zhejiang province, northwest of Taiwan, Wen Wei Po reported. Some of the hotels in the city of Zhoushan have already closed rooms that face the sea in preparation for the drills, the Chinese-language daily quoted sources in southeastern China as saying…."

South China Morning Post (HK) 9/3/99 Glenn Schloss/Alex Lo/Oliver Chou "….A Dragonair jet bound for Hong Kong was ordered away from an area over Fujian province where military exercises are taking place amid tensions over Taiwan. It is the first known incidence of an international airline being affected by the war games. Passengers have been told to expect more disruptions over the next few days because of the manoeuvres. …"

FoxNews 9/2/99 AP Charles Hutzler "…While declaring its resolve to retake rival Taiwan by force if necessary, China removed one threat today by promising not to use nuclear weapons in the event of a conflict. The pledge, issued by the Foreign Ministry, was the most explicit, public renunciation of the nuclear option China has ever given Taiwan and suggested a slight easing of their latest tensions…"

9/16/99 Reuters "...For the first time in seven years, the United States on Wednesday told a U.N. committee it was against putting U.N. membership for Taiwan on the General Assembly's agenda in order to reiterate Washington's commitment to a "one China" policy. After a lengthy discussion in which opponents of seating Taiwan outnumbered its supporters by more than two to one, the U.N. General Assembly's steering committee decided without a vote not to inscribe the item on the agenda of the Assembly session that opened this week. There has not been a vote on the Taiwan question in the past six years, either. But neither has the United States previously spoken in the debate on what is annually the most contentious issue when deciding what items should be included in the Assembly agenda. Asked why the United States decided this year to speak out against placing the Taiwan item on the agenda, a U.S. official said: "We wanted to make clear that our 'one-China' policy is unchanged."..."

Jane's Defence Weekly 9/15/99 Christopher F Foss JDW Land Forces Editor "....Reports from Hong Kong say that China North Industries Corporation (NORINCO) have developed a new long range artillery system, described as a "super range rocket gun", with a range of 360km. This would give it sufficient range to strike at almost all of Taiwan from mainland China. Four years ago, it was revealed that China had built a prototype long range 'Super Gun' similar to that designed by the late Dr Gerald Bull for Iraq (Jane's Defence Weekly 4 February 1995). Bull was heavily involved in developing towed and self-propelled artillery systems in China in the early 1980s with calibres of 155mm and 203mm......While Taiwan has an adequate air defence capability against aircraft and, to a lesser extent ballistic missiles, no current air defence system could provide an effective air defence against a system such as the Chinese rocket gun with its long range, accuracy and high rate of fire....."

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_btl/19990909_xcbtl_wars_and_p.shtml 9/9/99 Joseph Farah "....You don't have to listen very closely to the murmuring in Beijing to hear that China is virtually promising the world it will someday attack Taiwan in an effort to impose hegemony over the free Republic of China. That's what China means, for instance, when the official China Daily announces reunification with Taiwan will be achieved "at any cost." Such ominous warnings are issued on nearly a daily basis for those curious enough to scan the headlines of the Asian papers. What will be the response of the United States when that day comes? How has the Clinton administration reacted to such bellicose threats from Beijing? The Clinton administration says a military invasion of Taiwan by China would be "of grave concern" to Washington. Of grave concern? Talk of eliminating mohair subsidies is of grave concern in Washington. Parking is of grave concern in Washington. The summer drought is of grave concern in Washington. In a city of political hyperbole, the idea of World War III should be of something more than "grave concern.".....Just compare and contrast the rhetoric: Bill Clinton isn't kidding when he says his only enemy is right-wing religious fundamentalism. He considers the threat from Jerry Falwell to be of graver concern than the threat from Jiang Zemin. In fact, it's not even a close contest for the president. He has done everything in his power for nearly seven years to ensure that totalitarian China achieves geo-strategic parity with the United States. At the same time, he has used all of the power of the presidency -- plus some extra-constitutional powers -- to persecute and make war on his domestic political enemies. Think about it: The transfer of nuclear warhead secrets ... The transfer of critical satellite technology ... The transfer of the Panama Canal ... The proposed transfer of the Long Beach Navy yard. ... Am I the only one who sees the pattern here? .....That a U.S. president could so blatantly betray U.S. security is apparently too much for the American psyche to handle. That he could do so for money and raw political power is apparently too unthinkable....... Nevertheless, the handwriting is on the wall -- and you don't have to read Chinese to decipher the message. Somewhere, somehow, some time ... America is headed for a military showdown with China. Let's hope it's long after this president has left office and America has had a chance to recover, in part, from the damage he has inflicted upon the capabilities of the U.S. military and the strategic victories he has handed our enemies without a shot being fired...."

AP 9/9/99 "....Despite its threatening rhetoric, China will not attack Taiwan because Beijing is preoccupied with economic problems, Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui said Thursday. China's shaky economy can't sustain a war effort, Lee said in remarks certain to provoke a new battle in the two-month-old war of words between China and Taiwan. The mainland's economy is "so unstable, problems are so many, where is the means to willy-nilly take action against Taiwan?" Lee told a gathering of ruling Nationalist Party cadres in southern Tainan county China's economy is beset by rising unemployment, falling competitiveness and weakening foreign investment....."

China Times 9/10/99 "...Senior US Senator Jesse Helms on Wednesday urged President Clinton to make clear to mainland Chinese President Jiang Zemin "that any PRC use of force against Taiwan ... will trigger a US intervention in defense of Taiwan." In his letter dated Sept. 8 to Clinton, Helms asked the US president to tell Jiang during the upcoming leadership summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Auckland, New Zealand that any PRC use of force against Taiwan, including Taiwan's offshore islands, will bring about US intervention for Taiwan's defense. "Only such clarification, backed by the presence of sufficient military assets in the region, will provide an adequate deterrent to impetuous Chinese aggression," Helms said. In his letter, Helms also told Clinton that "it would be a profound mistake for you to issue any kind of joint statement with President Jiang that even hints at Beijing's definition of the one-China policy or the three noes or which in any way signifies US pressure on President Lee to backtrack from his recent remarks on Taiwan's status." ...."

South China Morning Post 9/10/99 Agencies "...President Jiang Zemin is to warn US counterpart Bill Clinton that Beijing will take "limited military action" against Taipei if Washington fails to rein in the pro-independence activities of Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui. Mr Jiang is scheduled to meet Mr Clinton in Auckland this weekend on the fringes of the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation forum. A Beijing source said Taiwan would top the agenda at the summit while China's accession to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) would be handled mainly by Foreign Trade Minister Shi Guangsheng and US Trade Representative Charlene Barshefsky. "Jiang will tell Clinton whether force will be used against Taiwan is China's internal affairs," the source said. "However, Jiang will drop strong hints that whatever military action will be taken will be restricted to outlying islands controlled by Taipei. "Moreover, there will be no long-term occupation of Taiwan-held territory by the PLA," the source said....."

AP Joe McDonald 9/10/99 "... China conducted a mock invasion of Taiwan with thousands of troops along its southeastern coast this month in a warning to the island not to pursue formal independence, state media said Friday. Taiwan called the exercises routine and told its public not to worry. The Chinese reports came amid a war of words between Beijing and Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui, who enraged China's communist leaders in July by demanding they treat his government as a sovereign state.....``The military exercise provided a spectacular sight of a straits-crossing and landing operation,'' the Xinhua News Agency said. It quoted Zhang Wannian, deputy chairman of China's highest military body, the Central Military Commission, as saying its forces are ``ready to crush any evil attempts to separate the motherland.'' ...."

AP Joe McDonald 9/19/99 "....China said Friday its military had held landing exercises with warplanes, ships and thousands of soldiers on its coast facing Taiwan this month in a warning to the island's leaders not to "separate the motherland." Taiwan's military said the activities were routine and no cause for concern. The exercises reported by the Xinhua News Agency and state television appeared to be a mock invasion of Taiwan, which Beijing considers a renegade province to be recaptured by force if necessary. It was the most threatening gesture yet aimed at Taiwan since Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui demanded in July that Beijing treat Taiwan as a sovereign state. Taiwan has been ruled separately since a 1949 civil war, though both sides say they plan one day to reunite. The communist Beijing government accused Lee of preparing to declare formal independence, which it threatened to block by force if necessary. The exercises this month took place in the coastal provinces of Zhejiang, which faces Taiwan across the Taiwan Strait, and Guangdong, the media reports said. They did not specify when the exercises took place, or exactly how many troops or vessels took part....."

China Times 9/12/99 AFP "....Chinese President Jiang Zemin on Saturday demanded that the United States end arms sales to Taiwan and block pro-Taiwan security legislation at a meeting here with US President Bill Clinton, a Chinese spokesman said. Jiang also reaffirmed China would "never renounce the use of force" against Taiwan and attacked Taiwan leader Lee Teng-hui for trying to split China with his "two states theory." Jiang told Clinton the "Taiwan question has always been the most outstanding question" in China-US relations, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao said. "And within the United States there have always been those who have tried to obstruct the reunification of China," he quoted the Chinese president as saying Asked to elaborate, Zhu told a media briefing that Jiang was referring to "some moves by the US side which could not but have aroused serious concern among the Chinese people." He cited frequent anti-China resolutions tabled in the US Congress, referring to the "so-called Taiwan Security Enhancement Act" and also a US commitment to sell advanced weaponry and equipment worth 550 million dollars to the island. Jiang reportedly said the arms sales represented a "serious violation" in both "quantitative and qualitative terms" of Sino-US understandings. ....."

China Times 9/12/99 "....New Zealand has apologized to the Taiwan delegation at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum following a verbal clash between Taiwan and mainland China at a news conference on Friday in Auckland, ROC Foreign Affairs Minister Jason Hu said on Saturday. Mainland Chinese Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan's attitude at the APEC press conference fully demonstrated Beijing's hegemonic mentality against Taipei, and cast a sour note over the event, according to Hu. At the Friday news conference which marked the end of the APEC two-day ministerial meeting, New Zealand Foreign Minister Don McKinnon attempted twice to prevent Taiwan reporters from raising questions related to the island's bid to join the World Trade Organization, saying: "I am just going to say I have attended now nine APEC meetings, they are becoming more and more dominated in the press conference by journalists from Chinese Taipei." McKinnon did not allow ROC Economic Affairs Minister Wang Chih-kang to answer related questions, but instead allowed Tang to answer a question posed by a mainland Chinese journalist. However, Tang answered the question Wang had been refused permission to answer, claiming to "correct ignorance on history," and asserting that Taiwan cannot join an international organization such as the WTO as a separate state because it is "part of China." Wang then refuted Tang, pointing out that Taiwan has been seeking WTO membership for more than 10 years and that "our application is independent, separate from other economies." Tang responded in answer to another reporter by insisting that Taiwan's accession to the WTO must come after mainland China's. ...."

China times 9/12/99 ".... Republic of China Vice President Lien Chan on Saturday blasted Beijing for bullying Taipei at a Friday news conference of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in Auckland, New Zealand. As APEC is a regional organization dedicated to multilateral or bilateral economic cooperation among its member economies, Lien said it was extremely inappropriate for Beijing to bring up political issues on such an occasion, and added that the action brands the communist regime a troublemaker. At the news conference held following the end of a two-day APEC ministerial meeting, ROC Economic Affairs Wang Chih-kang was not given the opportunity by New Zealand Foreign Minister Don McKinnon to answer questions from Taiwan reporters related to Taiwan's efforts to join the World Trade Organization. Mainland Chinese Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan was instead allowed to reply to the questions, and he used the opportunity to stress that "Taiwan cannot enter the WTO before mainland China because it is part of China." Judging from the events which took place at the news conference, it is clear that Beijing is the troublemaker in the international community, while Taipei is a peacemaker, Lien asserted. The vice president made the remarks while paying a visit to grassroots officials of the ruling Kuomintang in this southern Taiwan county....."

Telegraph 9/13/99 David Rennie ".... PRESIDENT CLINTON called Taiwan's president a "troublemaker" during talks at the weekend with his Chinese opposite number, the official media in Beijing said yesterday. According to leading state newspapers, the American leader told Jiang Zemin, the Chinese president, that Lee Teng-hui's recent call for "special state-to-state" relations between Taipei and Beijing "had brought about a lot of troubles" for both China and the United States. The Clinton administration has reacted without enthusiasm to Mr Lee's demand that Taiwan should be treated as an equal by Beijing ..."

China Times 9/15/99 "....Beijing's abuse of Republic of China President Lee Teng-hui has disqualified it from entering unification talks with Taiwan, Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) Deputy Secretary-General Wu Hsin-hsing said on Tuesday. In a response to the excoriation of Lee by several Beijing officials over the Taiwan leader's claims that Taiwan-mainland China ties are "a special state-to-state relationship" one, Wu said Beijing's reaction reveals its authoritarian character, and that it has denied itself the chance to negotiate peaceful national reunification with Taiwan. Wu said he is pessimistic about the future of bilateral ties unless Beijing agrees to consider such ties from a basis of cross-Taiwan Strait parity. Dismissing as character-smearing certain Beijing officials' argument that Lee is "a troublemaker" who is "blocking the improvement of Beijing's ties with Washington," Wu said Beijing has debased itself by turning to vilification rather than rationalization, and has thereby "forsaken its status as a civilized state."..."

Investor's Business Daily 9/18/99 "...Congress is set to do what the Clinton administration should have done years ago - send a strong message that the U.S. supports the democratic government of Taiwan. Clinton's ''strategic ambiguity'' has eroded our credibility. Congress is considering the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act as China continues its military buildup and saber-rattling with Taipei. The bill is a clear statement that Taiwan's security from Chinese intimidation is important to the U.S. It would establish secure communications and visits between U.S. and Taiwan's armed forces. It would also authorize the president to sell defensive weapons, with congressional approval, to Taiwan, including Ageis destroyers and missile defense systems when available. The bill underscores the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979. The TRA was passed because of Congress' concern that President Carter was siding with China at the expense of Taiwan. It says Washington expects the future of Taiwan to be determined by peaceful means, and commits the U.S. to defending Taiwan militarily. ....Despite administration denials, President Clinton altered the U.S. position on June 13, 1998, in Shanghai when he introduced the ''three No's.'' He said, ''We don't support independence for Taiwan, or two Chinas, or one Taiwan-one China. And we don't believe that Taiwan should be a member in any organization for which statehood is a requirement.'' ...."

Associated Press 9/19/99 Christopher Bodeen ".... Two months ago, when Lee said the two sides should handle their affairs on a ``special state-to-state basis,'' China thought it was part of a secret plan by the Taiwanese leader to break away permanently from the mainland -- a move Beijing has repeatedly threatened to use force to block. Trying to get Lee to scrap his claim, China has used fiery rhetoric and has staged massive mock invasions of the island with warplanes, ships and thousands of troops. Adding to the pressure, Taiwan's biggest ally, the United States, has blamed Lee for needlessly stirring up trouble. But chances are slim Lee will cave in to the pressure. With seven months left in his term, he seems to be focused on his historical legacy. Already, he's guaranteed a long chapter in Taiwan's history books for presiding over numerous reforms, including the first direct presidential election in 1996, which he won handily....."

South China Morning Post 9/18/99 Josephine Ma "....The United States has agreed to sell Taiwan the latest version of its Patriot anti-missile facility as the island bids to establish a low-altitude air defence shield against the mainland threat. Taiwan's Central News Agency said the US had agreed in principle to sell two Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) systems once the technology was fully developed in two years...."

US Congress 9/15/99 Freeper tallhappy reports "....REP. DANA ROHRABACHER (R-CA): Dr. Campbell, let me get this straight. It's your testimony to us today that high-level officials in Taiwan are telling you that they don't want these weapons and they don't want us to sell them these weapons? Is that what you're telling us?

MR. CAMPBELL: Having been before this committee before, I'm always worried when you begin a question with me with, "Let me get this straight." (Laughter.) Usually, you're about to be on the hot seat.

REP. ROHRABACHER: You're already on the hot seat.

MR. CAMPBELL: I understand. I appreciate that. (Laughter.) I really do appreciate that. Let me --

REP. ROHRABACHER: So let's get to the question.

MR. CAMPBELL: I will. Let me say that our Taiwan military friends always ask for more in terms of military hardware. Always.

REP. ROHRABACHER: Right.

MR. CAMPBELL: They never leave our meetings in which these issues are discussed, in which -- I think they leave with two sentiment. They are partially satisfied an partially dissatisfied. My sense is that they are more partially satisfied, but again, that's my discussions -- those are my discussion with me.

Since this bill is --

REP. ROHRABACHER: It would take a real diplomat to understand what you just said.

MR. CAMPBELL: Well, probably it's because my -- let my try to state it more clearly.

REP. ROHRABACHER: Well, let's just get right bdown to the question. Are you testifying that high-level officials in Taiwan have told you that they don't want to buy these weapons systems from us?

MR. CAMPBELL: No, no. No. What I was trying to say is I think the bill is about more than simply weapons systems. When you're talking about weapons systems per se, yes, they always want more. That is a statement of fact.

REP. ROHRABACHER: All right. There, you answered the question. That's cool, okay? Because I thoughtre testifying --

MR. CAMPBELL: No, I'm sorry for that confusion.

REP. ROHRABACHER: I don't know how I got that impression that some high-level people in Taiwan didn't really want these weapons, because every time In over there, that's what they want, and --

MR. CAMPBELL: Yes. But can I -- but, Congressman, can I also make another point which is actually important? There are also times where they ask for systems which we think are actually quite important and we say "yes" and then they don't buy them, and -- AND -- more recently, we are in an environment where we're telling them that there are things that they need to purchase -- because we've looked very carefully at their armed forces -- that they're reluctant to do.

So when you talked about this, this is not us going, "No, no, no." This is much more of a dialogue. We've looked closely at their requirements.

REP. ROHRABACHER: Well, let's go to the no, no, no part. Aren't we saying, "No, no, no" when they want to buy submarines and Aegis systems? Why is that? Don't these have this missile buildup on the coastline there and don't they have about a 64-to-four advantage on submarines on the Taiwanese? Aren't we saying, "No, no, no" to the elected government rather than the dictatorship?

MR. CAMPBELL: Let me take these two -- I think you've raised an important issue. Let me try to handle both of them, if I can.

First of all, in terms of anti-submarine warfare, we think that that mission is among the most important missions that the Taiwan military faces. And we have sold an array of military equipment, both helicopters, ships and airplanes, that are designed to address the submarine threat.

You are correct, Congressman Rohrabacher, that we have not sold submarines. However, we believe that the mission is critical, and we've provided a lot of time and a lot of effort to address this particular issue.

Now, the second point that you raised, about Aegis, I can address publicly because it has been in the public. We actually agreed and urged Taiwan, in 1992, to purchase Aegis. We've sold licenses. We went out publicly, we worked with them on this, and they decided not to go ahead with it.

REP. ROHRABACHER: All right. Now, so we are not opposed to selling Aegis -- the administration is not opposing selling the Aegis system to Taiwan?

MR. CAMPBELL: I'm not going to answer that question right now --

REP. ROHRABACHER: (Laughs.)

MR. CAMPBELL: No, wait, let me -- specifically, because our policy is in ongoing discussions with the Taiwan government.

REP. ROHRABACHER: All right. Well, I'm not getting --

MR. CAMPBELL: Well, no, let me --

REP. ROHRABACHER: We're not getting very definitive answers here, because I know that you're -- this is sort of like the strategic ambiguity, I guess, here, right here in Congress.

MR. CAMPBELL: No, it's --

REP. ROHRABACHER: But let me ask you this --

MR. CAMPBELL: What I would suggest is in the private session, in the private session that the chairman has spoken about, I think we could have a very useful discussion about Aegis.

REP. ROHRABACHER: Okay. Well let me just again state for the record, we have too much ambiguity in our policy. When you're dealing with a bully, the bully has to know what price he's going to pay if he starts a fight. And we're giving the wrong signals because of all of this ambiguity. And we shouldn't be having -- you know, somebody shouldn't have to translate answers when you're talking in English for Pete's sakes! And in this situation, the people on the other side, they have to translate into Chinese. They don't even know what -- the position you're talking about, what this administration is talking about.

We have a situation here where you have an un-elected, communist dictatorship in charge of the Mainland of China. You have a country that's struggling to be democratic on Taiwan. And, unfortunately -- and I'm sorry to -- I know the red light's on, Mr. Chairman. But unfortunately, it seems like to me that what we've got here is an administration that's trying to base its policy on some sort of moral equivalency between these two regimes. You're condemning both sides, when it's only the communist dictatorship that's threatening military action. I mean, you -- I listened to your testimony today, and over and over again, you know, "both sides this" and "both sides that". It's not both sides that's creating the threat of war, it's the communist Chinese belligerency! And the fact is, if they had a democratic government in the Mainland, they wouldn't even have a problem right now because the people of Taiwan wouldn't be so afraid of all of this talk about reunification.

And I'll tell ya, if we continue to have this strategic ambiguity that you're talking about, we're going to lead this United States of America into a conflict because the bully isn't going to know what we're willfight for.

US Congress 9/15/99 Freeper tallhappy reports "....REP. ROHRABACHER: And what a lot of people don't take into consideration now, they forget that during the Reagan years, it appeared that China was on the way towards a type of reform that we saw take place on Taiwan.

MR. WEINBERGER: Yeah. I think the real turning point there, Congressman Rohrabacher, was the death of Deng Xiaoping, who basically was -- I had the privilege of meeting with him several times when I was over there. And he understood better, I think, than anyone the vital necessity and some of the requirements of improving the relationships between the two countries. And I think he was apparently -- always had strong opposition to some of the things he was trying to do. But when he died, and after he died, there still is a period of some, I think it's fair to say, some uncertainty as to what the future of China's policy will be. But at the moment, I think it does seem to be in the hands of people who feel that they can go ahead and apply a military solution to Taiwan and that we will not do anything about it. And that's why I think it's so essential that we not leave any ambiguity, and why I think the Helms Act -- Helms- Torricelli Act, proposal, although it may not be necessary, it may be -- in the words in one of the witnesses today, it may not add anything new or be required; failure to pass it would be sending another very bad signal.

REP. ROHRABACHER: I think what we're talking about here is that when we see the potential conflict in that region is that we are mistaking the fundamental cause and the fundamental reasons for the potential upheaval. And the potential problem doesn't derive from the fact that there is an overabundance of sentiment for independence on the island of Taiwan, that's not the problem; the problem is a lack of democracy on the Mainland of China.

MR. WEINBERGER: That's exactly right, yeah.

REP. ROHRABACHER: If there was a democratic government on the Mainland of China, there would not be this friction and this potential catastrophe and complication that we're worried about.

MR. WEINBERGER: You have it exactly right, sir, because there's no -- there's no possibility of Taiwan attacking the Mainland, and there's no possibility of any overt actions of that kind. They want to be left alone to prosper as they have, with the feeling that they will be secure against outside attack.

President Lee has never supported independence, his party never has. One of the opposition parties talked about it. They've even come pretty close to abandoning that, as I understand it now.

But again, the furor, the anger that the Mainland greeted President Lee's very simple statement, which simply stated the facts, is again an indication to me that, as with the case of the unfortunate bombing of their embassy in Belgrade, that we are -- they are seizing any opportunity to try to get us in an apologetic, defensive mood in which we will not be as supportive of Taiwan as we should be.

REP. ROHRABACHER: You know, when we're talking about WTO -- Mr. Woolsey -- that I don't know why we want Al Capone to join the, you know, Chicago Chamber of Commerce. And I don't know why we want the worst gangster in the world to be part of our bodies here of governing a trade bill.

MR. WEINBERGER: Well, this is an extremely valid point, because once in, there are no provisions for getting anybody out, and any single member can cause a very substantial amount of difficulty, delay, and ultimate damage to any policies that we may want to have. So that it is not, I think, an organization to which people should be lightly admitted

Asian Wall Street Journal 9/20/99 Bruce Gilley "....For many years, one of the greatest moral obstacles to China's use of military force to retake Taiwan has been a promise first made by Deng Xiaoping, and repeated several times by his successors: 'Chinese should not fight Chinese.' This touchstone saying, popularized by Sun Yat-sen in the early part of this century, has provided at least some small measure of comfort to the people of Taiwan, even though Beijing has never renounced the right to use military force to achieve reunification. With its friendly appeal to ethnic sensibilities, the pledge has been interpreted as ruling out a full-scale invasion or bombing of Taiwan which would result in significant civilian casualties. Recently, however, several strategic thinkers in China have formulated a new interpretation of this pledge which reopens the way for massive military strikes. In conference speeches and articles, they have argued that those in Taiwan who advocate independence for the island republic, whether openly or by implication, are not true Chinese. By excluding from the fold of Chinese-ness those who would resist forcible reunification by Beijing, these strategists have sanctioned a more aggressive attack on the island. Any Taiwanese who refused to welcome People's Liberation Army tanks rolling into Taipei would be classified as non-Chinese and therefore liable to injury or death during the proceedings. As recently as early 1995, President Jiang Zemin repeated the 'not fight Chinese' pledge, and explained, 'Any unwillingness to forego a military solution is not aimed at Taiwan compatriots but at foreign countries that try to meddle in China's reunification process and against schemes promoting Taiwan's independence.' ...."

AFP 9/20/99 "....US spy satellites could be used to help Taiwan intercept Chinese missiles in the event of a mainland attack on the nationalist island, the United Daily News reported on Monday. Military sources told the paper that granting Taiwan access to US satellite intelligence was one of the key issues to be discussed by a mission of US defence officials currently in Taipei. The delegation has been tasked with assessing the island's air defence capacity and drawing up recommendations for upgrading it, the News said. The paper said American satellites were able to trace the flames of Chinese missiles immediately after they are launched. If Taiwan had immediate access to this intelligence it would gain 15 minutes in preparing for a missile attack, it added. ..."

South China Morning Post Reuters Oliver Chou "... Battling Taiwan independence has been listed as the PLA's main task while crossing the strait and landing have become the focus of troops' training, a Beijing-affiliated paper said yesterday. Hong Kong's Wen Wei Po quoted Beijing military experts as saying the designation of a specific military objective was an important sign because of the PLA's "very strict management and training". One expert said history showed the PLA always undertook military action against its enemies once an objective was set. The paper also quoted sources as saying crack troops had been transferred to the mainland's southeast coast. Advanced fighter jets, bombers, submarines and missile units were being deployed in specified locations. Troop training had become Taiwan-oriented, the sources said. "Control of the air, sea, electromagnetic field and strait-crossing are the key contents in the training programme," the paper said. ...."

Reuters 9/21/99 "...The United Nations can do little because it does not recognise Taipei, a UN relief official said yesterday. The UN Office for the Co-ordination of Humanitarian Affairs is waiting for the government in Beijing to request foreign assistance before it can do more than pass on information on the quake, he said. Taiwan has asked for international assistance, but ``we as the UN cannot act on the basis of a request from Taiwan, because it is not an officially recognised government,'' humanitarian office official Rudolf Mueller said...."

The Straits Times 9/22/99 Sunny Goh "....CHINA has placed on record in a 17-page document its concessions to Taiwan in the event that both sides can agree to reunification under the "one China" policy. In a prepared text presented at the East Asian Institute yesterday, Mr Wang Yonghai, deputy head of China's Taiwan Affairs Office, a set-up under the State Council, spelt out Beijing's position, which included giving Taipei the right to have its own military, a judiciary independent of the mainland's courts, and the freedom to draw up commercial and cultural agreements directly with foreign countries. Reading from his document, the senior cross-strait official said that Taiwan would become "a special administrative region with a high level of autonomy" after reunification. "Taiwan will not be the same as any other province or region in China. It will have the right to administer and govern on its own, the right to legislate and the right to have an independent judiciary which contains the institution for final judgment," he said. Under the section on "high level of autonomy", the paper in Chinese also highlighted other political concessions, which included "a certain degree of foreign policy rights" for Taiwan to draw up commercial and cultural agreements directly with foreign countries. ...."Taiwan can manage its own political party, government, army, financial and cultural affairs. It can also have its own military, while the central government will not despatch troops and officials to be stationed on the island," he said. ....."

AUSTRALIAN 9/21/99 "....Taiwan has stepped up the training of its military units to thwart any electronic warfare by China. The defence ministry has launched the first of nine seminars "to beef up the military's ability regarding electronic warfare and to cope with the Chinese Communist threat," spokesman Kung Fan-ding says. The seminars, focusing on communication security and computer virus prevention, aim to "show the (ministry's) determination to ensure information security". Several war games in Nanjing, Beijing and Lanzhou military districts since 1985 have focused on using electronic equipment to paralyse or destroy enemy computer and communications systems. Last month Chinese computer hackers launched a cyber war to destroy the Web sites of several Taiwan government agencies venting their anger at President Lee Teng-hui's provocative claim the island's relations with Beijing were "state-to-state." Local hackers fought back posting Taiwan's national anthem and national flag on several Chinese government agencies' Web sites...."

ChinaOnline News 9/22/99 Lester Gesteland "....Three days after a devastating earthquake that left almost 2,200 dead and more than 7,800 injured, one third of Taiwan is still without power and production is starting to show the effects of the disaster. As experts assess the damage and calculate its economic cost, some might see the results of the quake as a foretaste of what could happen if the China-Taiwan "state-to-state" spat became an international incident......Although analysts believe the economy as a whole should be relatively unaffected by the quake, certain sectors, such as semiconductors, have been hit more severely than others. Taiwan supplies 6 to 7% of the world's dynamic random access memory (DRAM) chips, and up to 12% if one includes outsourcing from Japanese companies like Toshiba...."

Chinatimes 9/25/99 AFP "…..Taiwan's foreign minister lashed out at China Friday, dashing hopes the island's
devastating earthquake could prompt a rapprochement between the rival countries. Foreign Minister Jason Hu also accused China of deliberately holding up rescue missions from reaching Taipei by refusing them permission to fly through Chinese airspace. "The Chinese communist authorities repeatedly stepped in, thus dragging the feet of the foreign rescue teams," a clearly angry Hu told reporters. A large contingent of Russian disaster and survivor location specialists was delayed 12 crucial hours as they flew around China via Siberia, Hu said, eventually landing almost two days after Tuesday's pre-dawn quake. "The way they behaved ran counter to international humanitarian principles," Hu said at a press conference. He accused Beijing of trying to use one of Taiwan's worst natural disasters -- the quake was Taiwan's worst ever at 7.6 on the Richter scale -- to keep Taipei out of the international community. ….."

LA Times 9/24/99 Eric Malnic "….Numerous local Taiwanese American groups Thursday night demanded the resignation of the American Red Cross' president after she said the organization must have China's approval before it will send aid to earthquake victims in Taiwan. At a news conference, the groups also called for a boycott of the American Red Cross' donation request for Taiwan earthquake relief. Dr. Bernadine Healy appeared on "Good Morning America" on Tuesday and was asked: "I gather you have to get approval from mainland China Red Cross before you can go into Taiwan?" "That is correct," she replied. "There is not an independent Red Cross in Taiwan as there is in most other countries. . . . It has to go through the People's Republic of China." …."Clearly, China is playing politics, while Taiwanese are suffering. . . . They allow the suffering to continue until Taiwan relents on its two-states theory." …."

AFP 9/23/99 "….The Chinese army will adopt a gradual military response starting with a blockade if Taiwan unilaterally declares its independence, said a report published Thursday in Jane's Foreign Report. Beijing has long supported the idea of a wide-ranging military offensive to either invade Taiwan or take control of the small islands surrounding it, according to the publication. Now, the military supports a less radical approach, starting with a blockade. "Submarines would be sent, and ports and waterways would be mined to cut Taiwan off from the rest of the world, causing economic crisis and social chaos," the journal said….."

THE CHINESE OFFER 9/23/99 "….CHINA has spelt out its position on cross-strait relations in a text delivered by Mr Wang Yonghai (left), deputy head of China's Taiwan Affairs Office, as a speech at the East Asian Institute yesterday. The 17-page document indicates Chinese commitment to a high level of autonomy for Taiwan if Taipei abides by one-China policy on reunification. The concessions include the following: LOCAL AUTHORITIES

Taiwan can manage its own political party, government, army, financial and cultural affairs. It can maintain its own military. The central government will not despatch troops and officials to be stationed on the island. EXISTING SYSTEMS No change to existing social and economic systems, its way of life. Direct links with foreign countries for some economic and cultural ties. Legal protection for commercial and housing properties, the right to own land and corporations, inheritance rights and foreign investments. CENTRAL LINKS Officials from Taiwan government and leaders from other sectors of society can be appointed to leadership positions in China's government bodies. Political participation in running of country….."

Reuters 9/23/99 "….The number of Taiwan people feared buried in the rubble of a huge earthquake fell sharply to 424 from some 2,000 Thursday as authorities accounted for those stranded in inaccessible places. The Interior Ministry, in its latest accounting of quake casualties, said that 2,207 people were cut off from rescuers in remote areas but were now believed to be out of imminent danger. The death toll stands at 2,106, the ministry said. …."

Interfax Russian News 9/22/99 "…..Chief of the Belarussian Armed Forces' General Staff, First Deputy Defense Minister Mikhail Kozlov on Wednesday arrived in Beijing for an official visit. He is to discuss various aspects of military and military-technical cooperation between the Belarussian and Chinese armed forces. The Belarussian Defense Ministry's press service told Interfax on Wednesday that Kozlov is expected to hold talks with Vice- Chairman of the Chinese Central Military Council and Defense Minister Chi Haotian; Chief of the General Staff Fu Quianyou and other Chinese military officials. …."

Taiwan TV 9/23/99 Freeper Ed.R "….It is being reported on Taiwan TV this evening that the American Red Cross is refusing to give aid to the victims of the Taiwan earthquake until they receive permission from the COMMUNIST leadership in Peiking. The Taiwan people in California are DEMANDING an apology from the Red Cross before they will accept aid from them. The Taiwan people say that international relief should be free from political considerations. The mainland Government has released a press release thanking the citizens of the world for donating relief to THEIR citizens on Taiwan. Just as a note, in 1992 Taiwan gave the Mainland 42 million US dollars for flood relief. You hav'nt heard anything about this cause TAIWAN does'nt broadcast their generosity for the world socialists to fawn over/ …."

Newsmax 9/24/99 Carl Limbacher "…. A one-time British journalist, politico and friend of NewsMax.com traveled this month to Red China with an official U.K. delegation. Our British friend had dismissed any notion of a China-Taiwan war. Friend tells Inside Cover that while in Beijing, his delegation was guided around town by the daughter of a Lieutenant General in the People's Liberation Army. During some friendly chatter, the General's daughter said she loved Beijing but her father was planning to move her abroad soon. "Why so," our British friend asked. "He says there will be a war with Taiwan," she replied, and her father felt it would be safer for her outside China. ….."

Washington Post 9/25/99 Dirk Beveridge AP "…Taiwan's president on Saturday signed a rare emergency decree that gives the military increased powers to maintain order and creates severe sentences for black-marketeers who try to take advantage of the destruction caused by a devastating earthquake here. Chaos from the quake continued Sunday morning when a 6.5-magnitude aftershock, the biggest so far, rattled central Taiwan, killing two motorists in a landslide and collapsing several buildings already weakened from Tuesday's quake….."

Investors Business Daily 10/6/99 Douglas Austin "....Last Friday, 11,000 Chinese soldiers goose-stepped through Beijing. As they did, one group of green-clad soldiers carried a banner that read, ''The issue of Taiwan cannot be delayed indefinitely.'' A message for the parade's onlookers? Hardly. It was more likely intended for the U.S. Congress, which is unusually focused on China-Taiwan relations right now. In fact, a strong bipartisan group in Congress is pushing a new bill - the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act -that would encourage China to keep its ties with Taiwan peaceful. That bill would give Congress an active role in approving arms sales to Taiwan. It would also reinforce part of the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, or TRA, that says all arms-sales decisions must be based solely on Taiwan's defense needs. The bill would force the executive branch to report all arms requests from Taiwan to Congress. It would then have to explain why it rejected, postponed or changed a request. It allows also for exchanges of high-level military officers between the U.S. and Taiwan and sets up a secure military hot line between the U.S. and Taiwan. It lists also the impressive array of defense goods that can be sold to Taiwan. It includes missile defense systems, Aegis destroyers, AMRAAM air-to-air missiles, early-warning radar systems, diesel-powered submarines and anti-submarine warfare equipment......"

China Times 10/5/99 AFP "....China on Monday insisted it has done it all can to help the victims of Taiwan's devastating earthquake and blamed the rebel island for a row over the mainland's response to the disaster. Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao said China had asked Taiwan whether it should request an international help through the United Nations. Beijing had sent a letter to the Taiwan-based Strait Exchange Foundation (SEF) via the mainland-based Association for Relations Across the Straits (ARATS) on September 24, inquiring about Taiwan's needs. "But the reply the mainland side got from SEF was that there was no such a need," Zhu said in an interview with the state news agency Xinhua. China then told the United Nations no rescue effort needed to be launched after the September 21 quake which killed more than 2,200 people and left another 100,000 people homeless. ...."

South China Morning Post 10/5/99 Oliver Chou "....The two new members of the top PLA command have been put into senior positions as part of a drive to rejuvenate an ageing military leadership. Guo Boxiong and Xu Caihou, each promoted to full general last Wednesday, are now respectively Executive Chief of the General Staff and Executive Deputy Director of the General Political Department. They were named new members of the elite Central Military Commission on September 22 at the Fourth Plenum of the 15th Central Committee.

Analysts said their elevated status suggested they were being groomed to become chief of the general staff and chief commissar. General Xu's new position, formerly held by General Wang Ruilin, suggested 56-year-old General Xu had replaced General Wang, who will turn 70 in December. No announcement has been made regarding arrangements for General Wang to step down. General Xu and the department's director-general, General Yu Yongbo, 68, come from the same home town of Fuxian, Liaoning province. General Xu was General Yu's assistant in 1992 before becoming a vice-director of the department from 1993 to 1996, when he was transferred to the Jinan regional command as political commissar....."

Financial Times 10/7/99 Mure Dickie ".... Tang Fei, Taiwan's defence minister, says the threat posed to the island by mainland China grows ever greater, despite perceptions of an easing in direct military pressure from its giant rival in recent weeks. Mr Tang says Beijing's ballistic missiles, proudly paraded during China's National Day celebrations last week, pose such a danger that Taiwan must embark on the hugely expensive and technically difficult creation of an island-wide anti-missile defence system...."

Freeper tallhappy 10/6/99 reports "...This is an official ChiCom report from today. What gall these guys have. Note that the earthquake was at 1:47 in the morning of the 21st and they didn't even get around to faxing a message to the group that deals with the mainland, the SEF until the 24th. Also, the UN said they asked the ChiComs immediately if they could send rescue teams -- and they didn't answer. Their answer was this fax. The UN is squarely to blame for this and their complete superfluousness is demonstrated amply. The Chicoms are acting in character. Also the US Red Cross under Healy also said that all aid must go through the Chinese Red Cross (depsite there being a Taiwan Red Cross). ......... Text of report by official Chinese news agency Xinhua (New China News Agency) Answering a Xinhua reporter's question on international relief for earthquake-stricken areas in Taiwan, Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao today said: On 21st September, a strong earthquake unprecedented in 100 years hit China's Taiwan, causing enormous human casualties and economic losses. On the same day, President Jiang Zemin expressed his cordial sympathies to the quake-stricken countrymen in Taiwan and his deep condolences over those who were killed. He also expressed readiness to provide all possible assistance for mitigating the losses caused by the quake. The central government and people of all circles also responded immediately and took all measures to assist Taiwan's efforts in rescuing quake victims....... Zhu Bangzao said: To mitigate the quake disaster in Taiwan and reduce our quake-stricken countrymen's difficulties, the Chinese government once considered initiating an international rescue action through the United Nations so that the quake-stricken areas in Taiwan can obtain all the possible assistance. The United Nations, as an intergovernmental international organization, can and must act according to regulations. In dealing with quake relief matters of a member country, it must consult the sovereign country and have its consent. In order to provide Taiwan with effective assistance, the Chinese government, through the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait, sent a letter to Taiwan's Straits Exchange Foundation [SEF] on 24th September to inquire about Taiwan's needs. The reply we received from the SEF was that there was no such need. Under such circumstance, the Chinese government indicated to the United Nations that there was no need to initiate an international rescue action...."

Washington Weekly 10/4/99 Rep Rohrabacher House of Representatives 9/29/99 ".....Mr. Speaker, 2 days ago, the U.S. Secretary of Defense, William Cohen, told reporters that he hopes the U.S. military will resume contacts with the Communist Chinese military. At the very same time that Secretary Cohen was speaking, in Shanghai, Chinese dictator Jiang Zemin was speaking to a gathering of elite U.S. corporate chairmen who were in China to help celebrate the 50th anniversary of the communist takeover of the mainland of China . Jiang Zemin blatantly renewed threats by the communist regime to conquer Taiwan by force, and then he threatened the United States. 'We will not allow any foreign force to create or support Taiwanese independence.' I have in my possession, Mr. Chairman, Pentagon documents detailing the Clinton Administration's exchange program between the United States and Communist China. It is a military exchange program. This program of military exchanges has, in effect, assisted the Communist Chinese Air Force in improving its capabilities to conduct bombing raids on Taiwan. The May 1999 Air Force exchange, and this was an exchange in May of 1999, this year, introduced the Communist Chinese , and these are military leaders in the Communist Chinese military, to our most advanced Air Force capabilities. This may eventually cause the death of Americans serving in any U.S. air or naval forces that would attempt to defend Taiwan against communist attack. This is mind boggling. I pray that those people who are listening to this or reading it in the Congressional Record or my colleagues will please pay attention. We are talking about training Communist Chinese military people in ways that will result in the death of thousands, if not tens of thousands, of American military personnel. It is outrageous. It is incredible....."

Washington Weekly 10/4/99 Rep Rohrabacher House of Representatives 9/29/99 "...The Chinese Communist People's Liberation Air Force and government air traffic control delegation visited the United States between May 9 and May 20 of this year. Air traffic control certainly sounds harmless. The Pentagon documents used to brief these Chinese visitors show that they observed or participated in advanced combat Air Force exercises with the U.S. 389th Fighter Squadron at Luke Air Force Base in Arizona. They also observed fighter bomber operations at Edwards Air Force Base test center in California. At these exercises, they experienced the real or simulated flights of bombing runs and strafing runs by our most sophisticated military aircraft. Especially useful for the Communist Chinese in their potential attack by the Communist Chinese on Taiwan was the briefing they got, and these DOD documents verify this, that they were shown how the military can use civilian airfields to conduct military operations. What we see by these DOD documents is that our government, our Defense Department, showed the Communist Chinese how we would use our radar systems for air traffic control of fighter bombers at remote airfields. We showed the Communists how to use AWACs in coordinating bombing campaigns. We showed the Communists how we coordinate our AWACS with in-flight refueling for long-range missions...."

Washington Weekly 10/4/99 Rep Rohrabacher House of Representatives 9/29/99 "...Mr. Speaker, earlier in this session, when I discovered this military exchange program and made it public, the Congress appealed to the Defense Department and passed legislation to end military exchanges that would benefit the warfighting skills of the Chinese military. These DOD documents prove that the Pentagon has ignored the will of Congress. Instead, they have not only jeopardized the 24 million people who live on Democratic Taiwan but this administration is in effect teaching the Communist Chinese how to improve their ability to kill America's defenders. Again, this is bizarre. It is almost surrealistic...."

Washington Post 10/3/99 Robert Kaiser Steven Mufson "... The Clinton administration has mobilized the business community and its own officials to try to block or dilute a little-noticed bill on U.S.-Taiwan relations that the administration fears could complicate its relationship with China. Administration concerns about the bill, called the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act, rose sharply in recent days as the chances for House passage of the measure increased...... If enacted, the bill would require the administration to upgrade its military relationship with Taiwan, establish a new communications link between the U.S. and Taiwanese armed forces, and encourage the sale of more advanced equipment to Taiwan, including a ballistic missile defense system as it is developed. The act would require the executive branch to report all of Taiwan's requests for arms to Congress. "It moves us very close, if not all the way there, to a formal military alliance with Taiwan," said one administration official, who said such a change would vastly complicate relations with Beijing...."

Reuters 9/30/99 Jeremy Page "....Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji lashed out at the United States over Taiwan Thursday, saying its support for the estranged island had emboldened President Lee Teng-hui and was making war inevitable. Using harsh language, Zhu surprised a gathering of top foreign business executives by saying U.S. policies had encouraged Lee to declare in July the island would only deal with Beijing as a political equal. ``Sooner or later it will lead to an armed resolution of the question because the Chinese people will become impatient,'' one participant quoted Zhu as saying...... ``We are convinced that with the concerted efforts of the entire Chinese people, the Taiwan question can definitely be resolved at an early date following the return of Hong Kong and Macao, and the complete reunification of China will be realized,'' he said. The Portuguese enclave of Macau is to return to Chinese sovereignty on December 20. China reclaimed Hong Kong in July 1997 after more than 150 years of British colonial rule. ...."

China Times 10/10/99 C.N.A. "....The United States has indicated to Beijing that a military move to take Taiwan would be inconsistent with the Taiwan Relations Act, and also inconsistent with China's best interests, US Defense Secretary William Cohen recently said in Bangkok. "We think China should resolve its problem with Taiwan peacefully and Taiwan should not try to separate and become an `independent' state or country" said Cohen in an interview last weekend with The Nation, a Bangkok-based English language daily. ...."

The Australian Financial Review 10/11/99 Rowan Callick "....Chinese military action against Taiwan is inevitable, Australian analyst Dr Greg Austin said here at the weekend. Beijing's motive would not be to recapture Taiwan, he said, but to punish it for having broken away. The most likely scenario was "a major air battle in the middle of the Taiwan Strait". Dr Austin, of the Australian National University, said that Mr Stanley Roth, the US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia, told the Prime Minister, Mr John Howard, at a Canberra meeting in August that in such a case America expected Australia to commit itself to military support for US forces in defence of Taiwan. ...."

CNSNews.com 10/13/99 Lawrence Morahan ".....A bipartisan congressional measure that would require the United States to upgrade its military relationship with Taiwan is running into fierce opposition from the White House, which is afraid closer ties with the democratic island would rankle the Communists, conservatives told CNSNews.com. The Taiwan Security Enhancement Act would require the Clinton administration to upgrade its military relationship with Taiwan and establish a new communications link between the U.S. and Taiwanese armed forces. Drafted by Sen. Jesse Helms (R-NC), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and co-sponsored by Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA), a staunch ally of President Clinton during the impeachment process, the bill also encourages the sale of more advanced equipment to Taiwan, including a ballistic missile defense system. ...."The Communist Chinese want 'hegemony,' which means one central basis of power. And this administration has been systematically building their ability to have hegemony. So what Clinton is doing is he's trying to make sure that nothing mitigates that, but in so doing he is belying the sovereignty of this nation and he is forfeiting the principles of this country - which is freedom," Parshall said....."

Associated Press 10/14/99 George Gedda "....A key member of China's National People's Congress warned today that a proposal in Congress to expand military sales to Taiwan would aggravate Chinese-Taiwanese tensions and set back chances for peaceful reunification. Zeng Jianhui, who heads the legislature's Foreign Affairs Committee, said he strongly opposes inclusion of Taiwan in any U.S.-backed initiative to install missile defense systems in East Asia...."

China Times 10/15/99 C.N.A. "...The United States should not be trying to influence the outcome of the Taiwan question and should not express an opinion as to whether reunification is the right answer for mainland China and Taiwan, said a renowned American China specialist Wednesday. Ross Terrill, a research associate at the Fairbank Center for East Asian Studies at Harvard University, told the "Voice of America" radio station that the Taiwan question is "no longer just a matter of finishing the Chinese civil war by reuniting the country." The transfer of Taiwan to the People's Republic of China today would change the balance of power in Asia -- something that would not have happened in 1949, stressed Terrill. He agrees with those who say Beijing's desire for reunification with Taiwan now "is a matter of strategic interest, not purely an emotional desire to reunify the motherland." Therefore, the China expert pointed out, the United States should not be trying to influence the outcome of the Taiwan question. "Our role is not to solve the Taiwan problem, but to prevent it from being solved in the wrong way and to prevent it from being interpreted in the wrong way," said Terrill. VOA reported that the US Congress is considering legislation that would upgrade the American military relationship with Taiwan and such an action would be sure to anger Communist China, which is considering changes in its own approach to Taiwan. ....."

Washington Times 10/15/99 Bill Gertz Rowan Scarborough ".... China is building up its missile forces in preparation for possible attacks against Taiwan - and the United States if the U.S. military comes to the island's aid. The large number of regional offensive missile systems, backed by space-based spying systems, will be the ``cornerstone of People's Liberation Army warfighting early in the 21st century'' and a ``devastating weapon of military utility,'' according to a Pentagon report. ``Beijing's drift toward a force dominated by offensive theater missiles could have significant implications for regional stability,'' the report said. ``In the most likely scenario for their use, the PLA's growing arsenal of highly accurate and lethal theater missiles, and a preemptive doctrine could give Beijing a decisive edge in any future conflict with Taiwan.'' Regarding U.S. involvement in a war between China and Taiwan, the report makes clear that Beijing won't hesitate to attack....... "

THE WASHINGTON TIMES 10/15/99 Bill Gertz "….The large number of regional offensive missile systems, backed by space-based spying systems, will be the "cornerstone of People's Liberation Army warfighting early in the 21st century" and a "devastating weapon of military utility," according to a Pentagon report. "Beijing's drift toward a force dominated by offensive theater missiles could have significant implications for regional stability," the report said. "In the most likely scenario for their use, the PLA's growing arsenal of highly accurate and lethal theater missiles, and a preemptive doctrine could give Beijing a decisive edge in any future conflict with Taiwan." …."The PLA has indicated a willingness to use highly accurate short-range ballistic missiles, medium-range ballistic missiles and land attack cruise missiles against U.S. assets, to include key bases in Japan and aircraft carriers operating in the Western Pacific," the report said, noting that Chinese weapons planners are working hard at preparing missiles to attack U.S. carriers.

Agence France-Presse 10/14/99 "….The chairman of the Chinese legislature's Foreign Affairs Committee, Zeng Jianhui, warned Washington Thursday against extending additional military aid to Taiwan. The Taiwan Security Enhancement Act currently being debated in the US Congress would authorize further US arms exports to Taiwan, including air-to-air missiles, new radar systems and an anti-missile system. "If this bill is passed, it will only make the situation more tense. It will do no good to the peaceful reunification of Taiwan," Zeng told a press conference here through an interpreter…."

ASSOCIATED PRESS 10/21/99 "....Marines are maintaining a heavy presence on the strategic Pratas islands off Taiwan, guarding the southern flank against a mainland attack, Taipei's military said yesterday. The military briefed reporters during a rare visit to the horseshoe-shaped, coral-reef archipelago, about 430km south of Taiwan's largest port, Kaohsiung. A vital South China Sea base against any mainland offensive, the Pratas can provide Taiwan with five extra minutes' warning of attack. The outpost is also a key staging area for anti-submarine warfare....."

Hong Kong Standard 10/22/99 AP "....BEIJING yesterday sent Taiwan US$500,000 (HK$3.9 million) for earthquake relief but renewed its attacks on the island's rival government, accusing it of bungling rescue work. The Chinese Red Cross said the money sent to its Taiwanese counterpart was raised from donations by the Chinese public. The group said it earlier sent US$300,000 for survivors of the 21 September quake that killed more than 2,000 people.....Taiwan has declined other aid from the mainland, which irritated Taiwan leaders by mixing expressions of condolences with renewed claims to the island's territory....."

Jane's Information Group 10/21/99 "....Notable successes for Chinese hackers included the website of Taiwan's Bureau of Investigation, which is part of the justice ministry, the ministry of economic affairs, the national assembly, and the American Institute in Taiwan, the unofficial embassy of the United States. Taiwan's National Security Bureau estimates that between August and September Chinese hackers broke into Taiwanese computer networks 165 times. Taiwan's cyber-wizards are said to have hacked their way into the website of the Chinese State Tax Authority and the ministry of railways. Much more is being prepared. The first stage was an attempt by the two antagonists to improve their ability to take part in 'information warfare'. More recently, our informants have detected signs that they have begun to assemble teams of hackers to attack the civilian information infrastructure of a chosen country. How? By shutting down electricity grids, banks, stockmarkets, air-traffic control, telecommunications and other vital parts of a country's economy that are run by computers....... Perhaps turning a blind eye, the Pentagon said "Taiwanese individuals" were behind the 'Bloody 6/4' virus, a protest against the massacre in Tiananmen Square, and the Michelangelo virus, which damaged 360,000 computers in China in 1998, causing damage estimated at $120m. A number of the island's budding computer companies have also been at the forefront of anti-virus technology design. Like the mainland, Taiwan also has well-developed plans to incorporate information warfare skills into military strategy....."

Center for Security Policy 10/22/99 "..... On Tuesday, the House International Relations Committee is expected to mark-up the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act of 1999 (TSEA) with a view to bringing the bill to the floor before the House recesses. In the face of adamant opposition from China and the Clinton Administration, there has been intense pressure to water down its provisions that would clarify America's commitment to Taiwan's security and open up new avenues of military cooperation. It is imperative that the legislation's original character -- i.e., a strong statement of support for Taiwan aimed at dispelling the ambiguity President Clinton has sought to foster concerning the consequences of a PRC attack against the Chinese state on Formosa -- be preserved. This schedule briefing was found at the Center for Security Policy:....."

Robert G. Kaiser and Steven Mufson Washington Post pp A26 "....The Clinton administration has mobilized the business community and its own officials to try to block or dilute a little-noticed bill on U.S.-Taiwan relations that the administration fears could complicate its relationship with China......"

China Warns Against Sales to Taiwan GEORGE GEDDA, Associated Press Writer 10/14/99 "....A key member of China's National People's Congress warned today that a proposal in Congress to expand military sales to Taiwan would aggravate Chinese-Taiwanese tensions and set back chances for peaceful reunification....."

China Times 10/24/99 "…..Taiwan Foreign Minister Jason Hu has left on a damage control mission to Panama after China mounted a fresh effort to further whittle down the nationalist island's diplomatic ties, the foreign ministry said Sunday. Hu left here Saturday and is scheduled to travel to Dominica and Panama via New York, before returning on November 2, said foreign ministry spokesman Henry Chen. "Certainly the visit is part of our efforts to consolidate ties with allies," Chen told AFP……"

South China Morning Post 10/28/99 "…. President Jiang and members of his entourage tried to get pledges from Paris and London not to sell arms to Taiwan. One of the little publicised goals of Mr Jiang's European tour was to isolate Taiwan, which has gained a few footholds in European Union countries in the past year or so. A Beijing source said Mr Jiang was focusing on France, whose contract to sell Mirage jet fighters to Taiwan continues. The source said to deflect the attention of the press, less high-profile officials such as the head of planning, Zeng Peiyan, played a big role in Taiwan-related negotiations with the French…."

South China Moringng Post 10/30/99 AFP "….Taiwan's Foreign Minister has met Panamanian President Mireya Moscoso as part of what is seen as a damage control visit. A spokesman for the Taiwanese Embassy said Jason Hu Chih-chiang and Panamanian Foreign Minister Jose Miguel Aleman would sign a co-operation agreement committing Taipei to sending volunteers to work in under-developed areas of the Central American nation. Panama has maintained strong ties with Taiwan but in the past three years has increased commercial links with the mainland….."

YAHOO News 10/28/99 "….White house spokesman, Mr Joe Lockhart said that elements of the Taiwan Security Enhancement bill might destabilize the region, and undermine American policy. It also would establish direct communication between the armed forces of both countries. …"

Washington Post 10/27/99 "…. Ignoring intense lobbying by the Clinton administration, the House International Relations Committee voted 32-6 for the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act, a bill intended to strengthen U.S. commitments to the defense of Taiwan. Originally drafted by Sen. Jesse Helms (R-N.C.), the bill was rewritten to eliminate many provisions opponents considered provocative to mainland China. But it still calls for upgrading Taiwan-U.S. military relations and would require the administration to spell out its plans for defending Taiwan in annual reports.. "

Agence France-Presse 10/26/99 Olivier Knox ".....A key US House of Representatives panel on Tuesday diluted but passed a measure aimed at bolstering US-Taiwan military ties, brushing aside criticisms that the bill would inflame tensions between Taipei and Beijing. By a 32-6 margin, the House International Relations Committee tempered and approved the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act over strong objections from several lawmakers on both sides and a top aide to President Bill Clinton who sought the bill's defeat. ..."

Heritage Foundation 10/25/99 Stephen Yates "....Today, Taiwan suffers from the inability to participate in (or even observe) advanced joint military exercises. And the United States is failing to faithfully implement the legislative intent of the TRA. To address these concerns, Senators Jesse Helms (R-NC) and Robert Torricelli (D-NJ) cosponsored S. 693, the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act (TSEA), to bridge the gap between the legislative intent of the TRA and the implementation of its key provisions. The measure calls on the U.S. government to recognize Taiwan's changing defense needs in light of the Mainland's determined military modernization and the more general revolution in military affairs from which Taiwan is diplomatically isolated. The bill's complement in the House, H.R. 1838, has a long and impressive bipartisan list of cosponsors. Yet the Clinton Administration is opposed to the bill, and supporters fear they may not be able to secure the two-thirds majority necessary to override a veto....."

Hong Kong Standard 10/27/99 AFP "….Taiwan's Defence Minister Tang Fei warned yesterday that the mainland may obtain air superiority in the Taiwan Straits in three to five years. Mr Tang dismissed reports that Beijing already had the capacity to paralyse the island's information system and take full control of the skies above the straits within 45 minutes of war breaking out. ``We are not that fragile,'' he said…."

Financial Times 10/27/99 Mure Dickie "….Efforts by President Lee Teng-hui of Taiwan to underline his redefinition of ties with mainland China as "state-to-state" may reignite Beijing's rhetorical barrage against the island, a senior Chinese official warned….. Chinese officials say their lowering of the rhetorical volume is a mark of mainland sympathy for victims of the earthquake in Taiwan last month. But Mr Lee dashed Beijing's hopes that he might respond by edging away from his new formula by describing it as a "historical and legal fact"……"

AP via Newsday.com 10/26/99 Jim Abrams "…..A House committee moved Tuesday to expand U.S.-Taiwan security ties and send a clear message to China that the United States would respond to aggression against Taiwan. The Clinton administration said the measure could worsen tensions across the Taiwan Strait. The ``Taiwan Security Enhancement Act,'' approved 32-6 by the International Relations Committee, would increase training operations and exchanges between the two militaries and establish lines of communications during crises. It also states that it is in America's national interest to make clear that the United States will support Taiwan from outside coercion and force. …."

Agence France-Presse 10/25/99 "....The Chinese government insisted Monday there could be no diplomatic links with the Vatican unless the Roman Catholic church broke ties with Taiwan and stopped interfering in religion in China. Zhu Bangjao, the foreign ministry spokesman who is accompanying President Jiang Zemin on a six nation tour, was responding to a Hong Kong newspaper report Monday that the Vatican and China had held secret talks and that relations could be established by the end of the year. But the foreign ministry spokesman said "first the Vatican must break relations with Taiwan. Second, it must stop interfering in China's internal affairs under a religious pretext......"

AP 11/2/99 "….In five years, China could be able to use computer viruses, hackers and other types of cyber warfare to break down Taiwan's defenses and prepare for an invasion, the Taiwanese military said Tuesday. Taiwan's economy, government and military are highly dependent on computers and could be vulnerable to a high-tech assault, the official Central News Agency quoted Chang Jia-sheng of the Defense Ministry as saying. Chang said Taiwan should form a team of experts to prepare the island for possible cyber warfare, the agency reported. China's cyber arsenal could include computer viruses, hackers and electromagnetic pulses that would disrupt communication networks and create chaos, he said….."

Washington Post 11/2/99 Robert Kaiser "....House leaders have decided to put off a floor vote on a controversial bill to improve U.S.-Taiwan military relations, after some lawmakers raised concerns that the move could interfere with sensitive negotiations to bring China into the World Trade Organization..... The Clinton administration mounted an intense lobbying campaign against the bill, arguing that it would jeopardize Taiwan's security by worsening China-Taiwan relations. The administration argues that it continues to provide for Taiwan's security, and has gone further than any previous administration to do so. China has denounced the bill..... House members said the bill would easily pass the full House if it came up for a vote. Divisions in the Republican leadership over the bill led to the decision to put it off until next year. According to leadership aides, the disagreements concerned timing more than substance. Some thought that while China and the U.S. are negotiating a deal to make China a member of the World Trade Organization, House passage of the Taiwan Security Act would be a provocation..."

Reuters 11/1/99 "….An earthquake measuring 6.9 on the Richter scale struck off the coast of eastern Taiwan in the Pacific Ocean early Tuesday but there were no immediate reports of damage or injury.State radio, quoting government seismologists, said the strongest magnitude on Taiwan Island itself was in Hualien, a seismically active area on the eastern shore. In the capital Taipei, the quake jarred residents from their sleep and set off car alarms.The quake provided another reminder of the major earthquake on Sept. 21, in which 2,405 people died across the island and which caused an estimated $14 billion in damage losses...."

Weekly Standard 11/8/99 Greg Mastel "….The fate of China's effort to join the World Trade Organization is unclear; matters involving internal deliberations in Beijing usually are. There is always the possibility that China is waiting until the last minute to wrap up WTO negotiations, hoping that the Clinton administration's desire to build a record of achievement for its engagement policy will force Washington to lower the bar for WTO membership. The emerging consensus, however, seems to be that China is simply unwilling to tackle the domestic reforms that WTO membership requires. In the spirit of "If I don't win, I'll take my ball and go home," China is also insisting that if it cannot become a WTO member, Taiwan cannot be allowed to join either. Surprisingly, the United States seems willing to tolerate this Chinese petulance, though doing so runs directly counter to U.S. interests. The United States should press for Taiwan's membership in up coming WTO negotiations whether or not China is admitted. …."

Freeper Gumption 10/30/99 "… I was searching the U.S. Department of State database, for some hint of a policy towards the defense of Taiwan in the case that it was attacked by the Mainland. The closest thing I found was this non-policy policy. This is small parts of 2 different press briefings, separated by 13 days.

U.S. Department of State 1/3/96 Daily Press Briefing Nicholas Burns "….

Q He did great! But I didn't get into the heart of this issue. Nick, the Chinese, the PRC, has stated now and has taken action -- the PLA has taken action to implement a policy of -- stated a policy of protection, defense of Taiwan. On the other hand, the United States policy, according to Mr. Nye(?), on the 12th of December, asked when -- what would the U.S. reaction be to any military crisis, he said, "Nobody knows." I presume then that the U.S. has not got a policy of defending Taiwan, and I would just ask you, is this accurate? Is this correct in the eyes of the State Department?

MR. BURNS: What -- this meaning -- the antecedent of --

Q The fact that, (1) the United States does not know what it would do in the event of military action against Taiwan. China knows what it will do.

MR. BURNS: The United States always know what it will do in a hypothetical situation concerning that part of the world, and, of course, you would expect that we would have thought long and hard about this; and the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 and the Normalization Act of 1979, I think, are the framework of our policy. I think we have a very clear understanding of what our interests are in that region, and we would act accordingly if those interests were threatened….."

U.S. Department of State 1/16/96 Daily Press Briefing Office of the Spokesman "….

Q But, Nick, I asked you a question a couple of weeks ago on this issue of Taiwan and the United States policy for the protection thereof, specifically with regard to Mr. Joseph Nye's Defense Department statement that we don't know what we'll do until the situation arises. Ambassador Sasser a few nights ago said the same thing.

MR. BURNS: Interesting, isn't it? Two government officials who say the same thing. (Laughter) That must mean they agree on the policy.

Q He said the same thing, right out of Mr. Nye's report, and I remember your saying something --

MR. BURNS: I probably said the same thing.

Q No, you did not. It's not the same way at all. That's why I'm asking. Mr. Sasser's response was Mr. Nye's remark exactly.

MR. BURNS: Let me just say on that --

Q Once again, is that --

MR. BURNS: Assistant Secretary Nye is now Dean Nye of the Kennedy School of Government. He has left government service. He is the distinguished Dean of the Kennedy School now. Ambassador Sasser is on his way out to China. I also noted what both of them said, and I wouldn't disagree with anything they said, and I'd like to stand by what they said and associate myself with it. Having done that and having talked about this a number of times, I really see no useful purpose in pursuing this much longer, much further.

Q You associate the Department then with the statements of Mr. Nye and Mr. Sasser in this particular matter.

MR. BURNS: Assistant Secretary Nye, when he was Assistant Secretary of Defense, yes -- the statements made last autumn, certainly.

Q But my question, if I might finish, my question to you is, doesn't this ambiguity or lack of specificity, does that not invite aggression?

MR. BURNS: No.

Q You don't think so?

MR. BURNS: No. It shouldn't. Of course, the United States as a Pacific power has an interest in stability in Asia, and we would not expect that there would be aggression in the Taiwan Straits. We would expect that there would be amicable relations between Taiwan and Beijing, and we, of course, work towards that however we can and continuously toward that end. ….."

Boston Herald 11/8/99 Don Feder "…. In 1979, Congress wisely decided that Jimmy Carter was incompetent to conduct foreign policy alone and passed the Taiwan Relations Act. Now, there's a move to repair the damage done by an administration whose Far East policy has stopped just short of drawing a target in the South China Sea with Taiwan in the center. President Clinton is trying to end the stalemate over Beijing's bid for membership in the World Trade Organization. The president will likely make further concessions to bring the People's Republic into the WTO, even though it hasn't followed the free-market reforms necessary to qualify. Taiwan's bid to join the WTO is also stalled, not due to noncompliance but because China doesn't want the island to join first. Although membership isn't limited to sovereign states, Clinton is once again allowing China to call the shots….."

The China Times 11/8/99 AFP "…..China is in the process of acquiring an Israeli-made long-range radar system which would strengthen its aerial power in the event of any conflict with Taiwan, according to western military experts. "After delaying a decision between the British company Marconi and a Russian-Israeli project, the Chinese have finally opted for the second," a Beijing-based expert said. Experts here confirmed reports last week that a Russian plane had been delivered to Israel to be equipped with an airborne warning and control system (AWACS). According to an Israeli aviation source, the Russian transport plane -- an Ilyushin-76 bought in 1996 for 50 million US dollars -- would be fitted with the early warning system for the Chinese airforce……"

Strait Times 11/8/99 "…..The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has renewed its military threat on Taiwan by launching a new round of exercises in a military region in eastern China, reports here said yesterday. The Jinan military region in Shandong province was declared a combat zone and more than 10,000 PLA soldiers conducted a number of military exercises in the eastern province, the reports quoted the official Jinan Daily as saying. The drills were described as the largest since the PLA's naval, air and ground forces held large-scale joint landing exercises in coastal parts of Zhejiang province and the southern part of Guangdong province in early September. ….General Zhang Wannian, vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission, was quoted as saying then that the manoeuvres reflected the Chinese military's determination to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity….."

China Times 11/5/99 AFP "….China threatened Australia on Friday with "very serious consequences" if it sided with the United States in the event of a war with Taiwan. Li Doayu, a top advisor to Chinese President Jiang Zemin, was quoted as saying Beijing wanted to avoid using military force to prevent Taiwan breaking away from the "motherland," but could be forced to do so. If war were to break out, "the reunification of China is entirely an internal affair and no foreign country should try to meddle," he said in an interview in the Australian Financial Review newspaper. Were Australia to back a US defense of Taiwan "there will very serious consequences" for both countries, he said without elaborating….."

South China Morning Post 11/5/99 "…..A large group of military vehicles carrying guided missiles and equipment was seen yesterday heading towards the Taiwan Strait coast in Fuzhou, where a top PLA general has recently visited. At least eight vehicles, each loaded with an unidentified missile, and four trucks carrying unknown military supplies, were spotted on the outskirts of Fujian's provincial capital, witnesses said. The vehicles were escorted by four police vans at the front and another four at the rear, which had their sirens on as the motorcade headed towards southern Fuzhou. Only the tails and the wings of the missiles were seen under heavy camouflage……"

Taipei Times 11/4/99 Catherine Sung "….Taiwan's foreign ministry yesterday called an invitation from the Panama government to attend the celebration of the US hand-over of the Panama Canal next month "a sign of firm relations between our two countries." "We are very happy to receive the invitation," said ministry spokesman Henry Chen (3ت ¨F). The invitation is expected to dampen speculation fueled by a series of visits by Panamanian officials to China in recent months that Panama is considering switching diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China. ….."

Washington Post 11/5/99 Steven Mufson "…."If peace and stability are to be maintained in the Taiwan Strait area, the perceptions underpinning policies involving Taipei and Beijing must be more firmly grounded in reality than in ideological wishful thinking," Lee wrote. "It is fiction to claim that the Chinese nation is not divided--and pernicious fiction to assert that the People's Republic of China has any right or imperative to claim sovereignty over Taiwan." While Lee's argument is not fundamentally new, its formal elaboration in the prestigious journal is likely to harden the positions of the Taiwanese and Chinese governments….."

insidechina.com 11/4/99 AFP "…..Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui says full democracy in Taiwan has helped fashion a new national identity that must be recognized by Beijing and the world community. Writing in the November-December issue of the US magazine Foreign Affairs, Lee highlighted what he called the "emergence of a new sense of national identity impelled by the force of the ballot box." "I now refer to my fellow citizens as 'New Taiwanese', meaning those who are willing to fight for the prosperity and survival of their country, regardless of when they or their forebears arrived on Taiwan and regardless of their provincial heritage or native language," he added……"

WASHINGTON TIMES 11/24/99 Bill Gertz "….. The State Department said yesterday it is watching the buildup of Chinese missiles near Taiwan and is considering sales of missile defenses to counter it. "We have made clear to the Chinese government our concerns regarding Chinese missile developments and their influence on the situation in the Taiwan Strait," State Department spokesman James P. Rubin said in response to a report in yesterday's editions of The Washington Times. "We have a strong interest in maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait," he told reporters. "That is why we have approved defensive-arms sales to Taiwan in accordance with the Taiwan Relations Act." Clinton administration officials have told The Times that Chinese forces are expanding a missile base across from Taiwan and will deploy nearly 100 advanced short-range missiles there capable of hitting the island. ….."

China Times 11/26/99 AFP "…..Panamanian Foreign Minister Jose Miguel Aleman flew into Taipei Thursday, the foreign ministry said, as Taiwan is struggling to retain bilateral ties amid China's intensified diplomatic offensives. Aleman was greeted at the airport by Taiwan's Foreign Minister Jason Hu, who is to resign next Tuesday to serve on the executive of the ruling Kuomintang's presidential ticket for the polls in March. Hu himself was in Panama on an urgent mission last month. The visits come amid reports that Taiwan-Panama ties were in the balance although Panama denied last month it was considering establishing diplomatic relations with the China. …."

Washington Times 11/26/99 "…… Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui, in one of his most extensive statements on China in months, accused Beijing Thursday of threatening his nation with missiles. Referring to recent reports that China plans to deploy 100 new ballistic missiles across from Taiwan, Mr. Lee said that such military buildups encourage some Taiwanese to support formal independence. "We understand that raising tensions between the sides would create disorder in China and bring no advantage to either side or to any country in the region," he said….."

The Washington Times 11/23/99 Bill Gertz "….China is expanding a missile base across from Taiwan where nearly 100 of Beijing's newest short-range missile systems will be deployed, increasing the threat to the island. Construction at the People's Liberation Army (PLA) missile base at Yangang, some 275 miles from Taiwan, was photographed by U.S. spy satellites in mid-October, according to Clinton administration officials familiar with intelligence reports on the activity. The officials said the construction is being carried out for the planned deployment of a brigade of advanced CSS-7 missiles -- also known as advanced M-11s, officials told The Washington Times. A Chinese missile brigade is estimated to have 16 launchers and up to 96 missles. U.S. intelligence agencies expect the missiles deployed at the base to be the new CSS-7 Mod 2, which can carry several different types of warheads up to about 300 miles. The new missile was shown publicly for the first time Oct. 1 at the Communist Party's celebration in Beijing of the 50th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China….."

Chicago Sun Times 11/23/99 "…. While the American voters must hear a lot more from Texas Gov. George W. Bush before deciding if he is presidential timber, his foreign policy speech Friday said something that needed to be said: The United States will help Taiwan defend itself. This needed saying because the Clinton administration seems to never miss a chance to slight Taiwan, a robust democracy and major economic player, in favor of China, a totalitarian country, one admittedly with a potentially huge market for U.S. goods. The history here is complicated and based on the "one China policy," followed by Republican as well as Democratic presidents, that essentially maintains Taiwan is a part of China. Things got more complicated during the summer when Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui said the island should be treated as an independent nation. Since then, as an analysis of U.S.-Taiwan relations published in Sunday's Commentary section shows, the Clinton administration has told Lee to be quiet and even encouraged business interests to lobby Congress against arms sales to Taiwan….."

Reuters 11/25/99 "….China dismissed on Thursday a U.S. newspaper report that it was constructing a missile-related base near Taiwan, saying the report had ``ulterior motives.'' Foreign Ministry spokesman Sun Yuxi said he had no information on the Washington Times report that U.S. spy satellites photographed the construction at the People's Liberation Army missile base in mid-October. But Sun said any nation with a strong military deployed weapons every day. The report had ``ulterior motives,'' he told reporters. A U.S. official later confirmed that there appeared to be missile-related construction at the site 480 km (300 miles) from Nationalist-ruled Taiwan, which Beijing regards as a breakaway province……"

Sing Tao/BBC 11/19/99 "….According to informed military sources, the mainland's military exercises aimed at Taiwan's "two states theory" will continue until May next year. The "three setting sights on" - setting sights on fighting a war early, setting sights on using force to settle the Taiwan issue, and setting sights on intervention by major foreign powers - laid down by the high-level leadership of the CCP to settle the Taiwan issue, has been transmitted to military officers at and above the regimental level. Zhang Wannian, vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission [CMC], recently travelled to the south several times for this purpose and to carry out military mobilization and make arrangements. On the surface, the Taiwan Strait crisis sparked by the "two states theory" is gradually calming down, but military preparations of the mainland's People's Liberation Army [PLA] have been more active than ever. Military sources have said that the "three setting sights on" currently is being transmitted and implemented among all armed services, and that several military regions have been in a second-degree combat-ready state and have held military exercises one after another. …"

The Straits Times 11/22/99 "….Taiwan wants to buy guided-missile destroyers, anti-missile systems and submarines during military talks in the United States, it was reported yesterday. A senior Taiwanese military delegation had flown to Washington last week to begin talks with the US authorities on arms procurement, the China Times said. "The two major items on the Taiwan group's shopping list are Aegis destroyers and updated Patriot anti-missile weaponry," the newspaper reported. It said Washington would respond to the request in the spring…."

South China Morning Post 12/15/99 Willy Wo-Lap Lam ".... The military leadership has tentatively set 2010 as the deadline for the modernisation of PLA weaponry. Boosting research and the development of hardware will be a major theme at a meeting of the party's Central Military Commission scheduled for the end of the year. An Asian military expert said the top brass hoped by 2010 China would close the gap on powers such as the United States and Russia in important fields such as missile and aeronautical technology. Apart from increasing China's general strength, commission chairman President Jiang Zemin is convinced a strong army is the key to a smooth solution to the reunification problem. ...."

Taipei Times 12/14/99 Catherine Sung "…. With the US set to turn over the Panama Canal on Dec. 31, Taiwan and Panamanian authorities are quick to downplay possible Chinese influence over the future operation of the waterway, despite the concerns of some members of the US Congress. Some conservatives in the US Congress have railed against the handover, arguing that the Canal will be under Chinese rather than Panamanian authority. "It appears we have given away the farm,'' said Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott, who has raised questions about the canal takeover with Secretary of Defense William Cohen. "US naval ships will be at the mercy of Chinese-controlled pilots and could even be denied passage," Lott said in a letter to Cohen. ……. Out of Taiwan's 29 diplomatic allies, Panama is one of the few that actually has substantial commercial ties with the island. "The mainland has increased its commercial activities in Panama in their continual efforts to poach our diplomatic allies," David Hu (­J¥¿³ó), the director of the foreign ministry's department of South American affairs, said. "While Hutchinson does not have direct influence over the operation of the canal, they may use other means that may have an indirect effect," Hu said. There is also the question of how the strengthening of Chinese-Panamanian ties would affect the Central American nation's relations with Taiwan. ….."

Business Week 12/20/99 Stan Crock , Dexter Roberts , Neal Sandler "….. The supreme art of war, Chinese general Sun-tzu argued 2,500 years ago, is to subdue without fighting. With those words in mind, Beijing has embarked on a two-track offensive. On the one hand, it is doling out the charm to its Asian neighbors. On the other, it is taking new initiatives to build up its arsenal, of particular importance in its quest to unify Taiwan with the mainland. That China wants to boost its military might in order to bolster its diplomatic clout is no surprise. What is startling is the furious pace at which the country has been going about it. Since October, Chinese officials have made state visits to a dozen countries in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. On one of those trips, Premier Zhu Rongji came close to resolving a long-simmering border dispute with Vietnam. And in an overture to other neighbors, he pledged to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) that China would aid development projects, most likely energy exploration, in the South China Sea. That's in sharp contrast with earlier clashes between China and ASEAN leaders over the area's islands. Beijing's sudden charm is meant to bolster regional support for its frequent verbal confrontations with the U.S. and Taiwan……"

South China Morning Post 12/13/99 "…. Taipei could have triggered an arms race with the mainland by indicating it wanted to develop long-range, ground-to-ground missiles to counter its rival, analysts said. Vice-President Lien Chan last Wednesday spelled out for the first time Taiwan's desire to develop strategic weaponry amid reports of a new Chinese arms build-up. "The ongoing political stand-off and an arms race across the Taiwan Strait could be further exacerbated," said Lin Yu-fang, professor of Tamkang University's Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies in Taipei. "As a matter of fact, an arms race is going on. Not long after Taiwan said it wanted to be armed with an anti-missile shield, the mainland also unveiled its plans for building anti-missile capabilities." …."

Washington Times 12/9/99 Bill Gertz "…..President Clinton voiced "grave concern" yesterday over the growing Chinese missile threat to Taiwan, including construction of two short-range bases near the island. "China is modernizing its military in a lot of ways, but our policy on China is crystal clear. We believe there is one China," Mr. Clinton said when asked about a report on the missile bases in yesterday's editions of The Washington Times. The dispute between the mainland and Taiwan "has to be resolved through cross-strait dialogue," the president said. "And we oppose and would view with grave concern any kind of violent action." ….."

Associated Press 12/10/99 "….China issued a "strong protest" against the United States on Friday, accusing President Clinton of "grossly interfering" in its affairs by supporting Taiwanese participation in the World Health Organization, state media said. Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi summoned a U.S. Embassy diplomat, Eugene Martin, to hear the protest over Clinton's signing of two bills backing Taiwan's participation in the U.N. agency, the state-run Xinhua News Agency said. Yang protested "the U.S. government's acts of seriously infringing upon China's sovereignty and grossly interfering in China's internal affairs," Xinhua said. ….He demanded that Washington "correct its wrongdoing and never support Taiwan's entry into the WHO and other international bodies in which only a sovereign state can join," it said….."

Washington Times 12/10/99 Edward Timperlake, William Triplett II "…… On Dec. 8, Taiwan's highly capable vice president, the Hon. Lien Chan, told a military audience that Taiwan should develop its own "long-range ground-to-ground" missiles capable of withstanding an attack by China's People's Liberation Army. He did not use the word "nuclear" but a Taiwan missile program of this type would be provocative without being effective as a deterrent if it is not nuclear-armed. Why would the Republic of China's government make such an extraordinary policy change? The answer lies in another event of Dec. 8. On that day The Washington Times' Bill Gertz reported in a major story that America's Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) has discovered a second PLA missile base built around caves very near China's coast. Both this base and the first one discovered in October by DIA are part of a massive missile build-up targeting all of Taiwan's most important military facilities. Pentagon officials quoted by Mr. Gertz noted that these new missile bases reduce Taiwan's warning time to virtually zero and encourages Communist China on the road to war in the Far East. …..It is a tragic lesson of this century that appeasement begets war. Might deters war….."

Associated Press 12/8/99 Christopher Bodeen "....Taiwan needs long-range missiles that can discourage an attack on the island, the vice president said Wednesday in a rare call for a weapon capable of hitting China. Taiwan has said the weapons it buys from the United States and other nations would be used to protect the island, not to strike the Chinese mainland. But Vice President Lien Chan's endorsement of a long-range missile was one of the most high-profile calls yet for a missile that could reach China. ``To make a foe afraid to attack Taiwan, we definitely must develop a reliable deterrent force, and strengthen our second strike capability,'' Lien said in a speech to a conference on defense. ...."

The Washington Times 12/8/99 Bill Gertz "..... The Defense Intelligence Agency has discovered a second Chinese short-range missile base under construction near Taiwan that will significantly increase the threat against the island, The Washington Times has learned. Disclosure of the first missile base by The Times on Nov. 23 prompted an angry exchange between Taiwan and China. Taiwanese Defense Minister Tang Fei said the missiles at Yongan, 220 miles from the island, ``are apparently aimed at us.'' In Beijing, a government spokesman defended the missile buildup as defensive and said reports about it had ``ulterior motives.'' The newest base, Xianyou, is nearly complete. It will contain a ``brigade-size'' force of short-range missiles. The Xianyou missile complex is closer to the Chinese coast than the Yongan site and only 135 miles from Taiwan. In a report last month to Pentagon officials, the DIA said the two missile bases are being readied for deployment of hundreds of advanced Chinese missiles known as the CSS-7 Mod 2. U.S. intelligence officials clarified the location of the first missile base as Yongan, not Yangang, as initially reported by The Times. ....."

South China Morning Post 12/29/99 Willy Wo-Lap Lam Agencies "….Party cadres have cited the Western world's inaction over Moscow's campaign in Chechnya as evidence that foreign powers would not intervene even if Beijing were to use intimidation or violence to "liberate" Taiwan. A number of military and civilian think-tanks have submitted Taiwan-related papers to the leadership following the Macau handover. A source familiar with Beijing's Taiwan policy-making elite said yesterday senior cadres handling Taiwan had played up the "success" of Russian forces in Chechnya. "In an internal meeting on Taiwan, a military specialist made much of the fact that neither the United States nor Nato were prepared to intervene in Chechnya," the source said. "The specialist made comparisons between the economic and military strengths of Russia and China. "He concluded that if Western powers dared not do anything in Chechnya, they would also refrain from taking action in Taiwan." …."

Associated Press 1/8/00 "…..Components of Scud missiles capable of carrying chemical or biological warheads were illegally smuggled into Britain and seized before their shipment to Libya, a British customs official said Saturday. A Customs and Excise official said crates carrying the missile components were found at Gatwick Airport, south of London, and were bound for Tripoli…….. According to The Sunday Times newspaper, 32 crates of missile parts were discovered Nov. 24 in an airport transit shed during a joint investigation by customs and intelligence officers. The parts included components of the jet propulsion system for Scuds with a range of up to 600 miles, the report said. Paperwork seized along with the crates indicated the shipment originated in Taiwan and that other crates had already reached Libya, the newspaper said. ….."

AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE 12/27/99 "…..Taiwan has stepped up efforts to develop and buy missiles that could be used to destroy radar systems and warships following the mainland's acquisition of an advanced Russian-built destroyer, a report said yesterday. Taiwan's military-run Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology had been quietly engaged in the development of rangefinders, a crucial component of high-speed anti-radiation missiles (Harms), said the United Daily News. "The missiles are not destructive but are capable of paralysing the enemy's air defence systems by tracking radars," the paper said.... "

Washington Times 12/22/99 Bill Gertz "….A U.S. spy satellite photographed construction of a surface-to-air missile base near the Chinese coastal city of Zhangzhou. The Pentagon sees this as part of the continuing military buildup against Taiwan. China has begun construction of a new air-defense missile site near Taiwan that the Pentagon views as part of Beijing's military buildup near the island, according to defense officials. A U.S. spy satellite photographed construction of the surface-to-air missile base in late November near the coastal city of Zhangzhou, about 175 miles due west of Taiwan, said officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity. The exact type of surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) to be deployed at the base is not known. However, Pentagon intelligence agencies believe the SAM site will have either Russian-design SA-10s or China's indigenous CSA-1s. The SA-10 is considered by Pentagon officials to be an advanced air-defense system capable of shooting down aircraft, cruise missiles and some ballistic missiles as far as 62 miles away. The systems are transportable and usually deployed in batteries of several launchers, each loaded with four missiles and tracking radar vehicles. "They will be operational in the spring," said one official familiar with missile-construction reports. Reports of the air-defense construction come amid growing tensions between Taiwan and the mainland over other military developments….."

Stratfor 12/16/99 "….. SUMMARY The United States has issued an unofficial ultimatum to Taiwan's presidential contenders: provoke Beijing any further and risk a loss of U.S. support. By doing so, Washington has announced that it wants no crisis during the upcoming U.S. presidential campaign. More importantly, Washington fears that Beijing may turn up the pressure against Taiwan to release China s economic and social tensions. While it won t abandon Taipei, Washington will pull all the diplomatic levers at its disposal to keep island politicians from provoking China. …."

Japan Economic Newswire 1/5/00 "…. In a tell-all personal account of Taiwan's abortive attempt to develop nuclear weapons, a former chief of staff revealed Wednesday that Taiwan had indeed constructed a small nuclear device, but the program was canceled after the United States became aware of it. The book, titled 'Eight Years as the Chief of General Staff,' is a compilation of excerpts from Hau Pei-tsun's diary during his tenure between 1981 and 1989. It is the first time a military official has admitted to the island's secret nuclear weapons program during the 1980s, according to the United Daily News. The account begins in January 1988, shortly after leading Taiwan nuclear researcher Chang Hsien-yi had fled to the U.S. and passed on to the Central Intelligence Agency details of the secret nuclear program. According to Hau, Chang's revelations did not come as a surprise to the U.S. government, which had already taken satellite photos of the Taiwan Research Reactor at Camp Chiupeng in the south of Taiwan, where the weapons program was based. Shortly after Chang fled to the U.S., then President Ronald Reagan summoned Washington's chief unofficial emissary to Taiwan, David Dean, and instructed him to tell Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui to sign a guarantee to halt the research….."

Asia Inc 6/97 Allen Cheng "….. With Hong Kong back in the fold, China turns to the main object of its desire, Taiwan - placing Beijing and Taipei on a collision course. Will it be reunification, independence or war? Taiwan's business community could tip the balance. . . . Though Taipei denies it and Western intelligence sources discount it, Taiwan detonated an atomic bomb with Israel's help in South Africa in 1980, according to a former weapons scientist who helped design Taiwan's Hsiung Feng missile. "We have credible deterrents at our disposal," says the retired scientist as he sips an Irish whisky on the 38th-floor bar of the Far Eastern Plaza Hotel in Taipei. "The first Chinese missile to hit Taiwan could spell the beginning of World War III," he warns gravely. "Taiwan can and will retaliate with force." One of the scientist's friends, a defense contractor named Huang, chimes in: "If I were Lee Teng-hui, I'd fire Hsiung Fengs at China's coastal nuclear-power plants." …."

BBC Summary of World Broadcasts 5/27/83 "….SECTION: Part 1 The USSR; A. INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS; 3. THE FAR EAST ; SU/7344/A3/1; LENGTH: 694 words HEADLINE: Taiwan's Claims of Nuclear Defence Capability ''Not Bluff'' SOURCE: ''Radio Peace and Progress'' in Standard Chinese 1430 gmt 21 May 83 Text of commentary by Balov ……"…..A few days ago, the West German weekly 'Der Spiegel' published a statement by Chiang Ching-kuo, chieftain of the Taiwan regime, to one of its reporters. He reiterated that Taiwan has the capability to produce nuclear weapons. Station observer Balov says: Why did Chiang Ching-kuo mention that Taiwan has the capability to produce nuclear weapons? Was this boasting about Taiwan's scientific and technological achieve- ments? However, nuclear weapons are not something people feel happy about. A natural conclusion from this is that Chiang Ching-kuo's remarks that Taiwan has the capability to produce nuclear weapons were made for the Peking leaders. Chiang Ching-kuo's remarks that Taiwan has the capability to produce nuclear weapons are not bluff and bluster. Foreign experts have long believed that Taiwan is capable of producing nuclear weapons of mass destruction. As long as eight years ago, the American weekly 'Time' reported that Taiwan was making preparations for producing atomic bombs and that scientists in Taiwan were testing such weapons with computers as Israel did. The weekly also reported that Taiwan was building a missile launching site as part of its plan to develop a nuclear weapons delivery system. ….."

Central News Agency, Taipei, in English 1/5/00 "…..Republic of China ROC Defence Minister Tang Fei said on Wednesday 5th January that the ROC has no ability to produce nuclear weapons at present, and reiterated that the "ROC government would never develop nuclear arms." Tang made the statement while answering questions raised by legislators at the Organic Laws Committee of the Legislative Yuan. The issue was suddenly a hot topic because of former Premier Hao Pei-tsun's disclosure in his soon-to-be published "Diary of Eight Years as Chief of the General Staff" that Taiwan was capable of producing nuclear weapons 14 years ago. …..However, in answer to a question raised by Legislator Lee Ching-hsing of the Taiwan Independence Party, Tang stated clearly that "we have no ability to produce nuclear weapons at present, mainly because all research work has been halted." ….."

The New York Times 12/20/97 Tim Weiner "….A United States spy whose role was cultivated for two decades rose to the top of Taiwan's secret nuclear weapons program and, at a crucial moment, stole vital documents that stopped the program in its tracks, according to former intelligence officials. The theft by the spy, a colonel in Taiwan and longtime Central Intelligence agent, halted a program that 20 years of international inspection and American intervention had slowed but never stopped, the officials said. The covert American operation culminated 10 years ago this month. And though it was reported then that the colonel had defected, dealing a crippling blow to Taiwan's nuclear effort, his work has never been acknowledged openly or described in detail by United States officials….."

Washington Times 1/21/2000 Bill Gertz "….The Pentagon wants to make the first new advanced weapons sales to Taiwan in several years, a deal that includes four Aegis warships that can be equipped with anti-missile defenses, according to Clinton administration officials. Taiwan's military asked to buy the Aegis destroyers and at least six other high-technology weapons systems late last year as part of its annual request for defensive weapons. The ships are equipped with the Aegis high-technology battle management radar and tracking system that is the heart of the U.S. Navy's developing sea-based missile defense system. A final decision by the administration on the ships and other advanced arms to be transferred to Taiwan is not expected until April……"

The Taipei Times 1/22/2000 Brian Hsu "…. Taiwan's Minister of National Defense says collaborative efforts between related government agencies have been initiated to find effective ways to counter moves by China, such as the incident last Sunday when China is suspected of having sent balloons across the Strait, playing havoc with the military's air defense radar. ….. Tang said the military is eager to know why China sent so many balloons into Taiwan's air space at one time. "If the purpose was to test its own radar system or find out data about Taiwan's air defense radar, two to three balloons would be enough," Tang said. "These balloons were discernible on radar because they were equipped with metal sensors. And the sensors could not be small ones otherwise they would not have been spotted by the radar," he said. Tang admitted there is also the possibility that balloons of this kind could be used to adjust the trajectory of ground-based artillery or ballistic missiles. …."

South China Morning Post 1/22/2000 Reuters "…. Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui criticised Beijing's human rights record in a taped address to US conservatives and reaffirmed Taiwan's close relationship with the United States, its "strategic partner". Mr Lee is a favourite of right-wing critics of the Clinton administration's policies on China. But he steered clear of remarks that might spark new anger from Beijing, which was furious last July when he said any talks between the two must be conducted "state to state". ….. He told activists at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Arlington, Virginia, that Taipei and the US shared the hope that Beijing would one day "democratise its Government, liberalise its economy and have a pluralistic society". Mr Lee said Beijing provided a "sharp contrast" to Taiwan with its "totalitarian rule, insistence on one-party rule, arrest and imprisonment of dissidents, and suppression of human rights and religious freedom, including the Tibetan religion and the Falun Gong sect"….."

Taipei Times 1/19/2000 Brian Hsu "…. Taiwan's military accused China yesterday of sending nearly 20 "flying objects" -- possibly balloons -- across the Taiwan Strait into Taiwan air space, threatening civil aviation safety in the process. A military spokesman said the objects were spotted on Sunday. "The objects were found flying westward at altitudes of 15,000 to 24,000 feet in the middle of the Strait," Defense Ministry spokesman Kung Fan-ding (¤ÕÁc(c)w) said. "Later they disappeared off the northwest coast of Taiwan," Kung told reporters, adding that his ministry immediately informed the Civil Aeronautics Administration (CAA, ¥Á¯è§1/2) after military radar spotted the objects……CAA officials have said, however, that civil aviation radar detected no unidentified objects in Taiwan's air space on Sunday. "Whatever their purpose was, they would affect flight safety. Not only military planes, but civilian planes," Kung said….."

BBC Summary of World Broadcasts 1/17/2000 Guangzhou Ribao "….Although it criticized Taiwan privately and reiterated its one-China policy openly, the US broadly hinted to China that if force was used, the US would exercise military intervention. To cope with the escalation of the US intervening forces, China's military strength must be upgraded to a level capable to contain US military might. This is the strategic conception of buying Sovremenny-class warships. The design purpose of the Sovremenny-class destroyers in the 1970s was to sink or inflict heavy losses on aircraft carriers with their ship-to-ship Moskit missiles by piercing the defence net of Aegis warships. In its computer-simulated offensive and defensive exercises, the US navy was not quite sure about preventing attacks by Moskit missiles. Sovremenny-class destroyers are not the only concern of the US military. China is actively conducting discussion on buying 3M-80EA missiles for Sukoi fighters. They are the air-launched type of Moskit missiles with a range of 25 km and have never been exported……. "

BBC Summary of World Broadcasts 1/17/2000 Guangzhou Ribao "….Shi Yinhong at the International Strategic Research Centre of Nanjing International Relations College pointed out: China's strategy towards US military intervention includes the following aspects:

1. We must rely mostly on the psychological effect of deterrence while maintaining its credibility and not launch any military attacks until it is absolutely necessary to do so and never hesitate and be irresolute when military attack becomes an absolute must.

2. We must take into account the possibility revealed by the probing of the US "Intermediate-Range [as published] Agreement," the possibility of the US not exercising military intervention when Taiwan announces formal separation and is attacked by the mainland using force.

3. Unless the US enters the resulting war on a comprehensive and large scale (this possibility is very limited in reality), militarily, China can withstand all costs to cope with or win the war, but politically the US will refuse to accept this political reality and stage a cold war against China (such as the US-Soviet Cold War). Therefore China must have mental preparations to withstand the strains resulting from the prolonged confrontation with the US….."

China Daily 2/2/2000 Xinhua ".... The Clinton administration has said it may veto the so-called Taiwan Security Enhancement Act because it undermines the stability in Asia. The measure, which will hurt the US-China relations and was strongly condemned by the Chinese government, was approved 341 to 70 in the Republican-led chamber and will go to the Senate. The legislation would require the US defense secretary to establish direct communication with military forces in Taiwan, increase training operations, allow more Taiwanese military officials to attend US military academies and require annual Pentagon reports on threats to Taiwan's security. In a statement earlier in the day, the White House said it "strongly opposes" the measure because it "would seriously diminish Taiwan's security and undermine the important US objective of stability in Asia." "This bill would mandate a number of new security and military arrangements with Taiwan that could create dangerous, false and inaccurate expectations on both sides of the Taiwan Strait," said the statement. ...."

BBC Summary of World Broadcasts 2/2/2000 Text of report by special correspondent Hsiao Peng (5618 7720): "Chinese People's Liberation Army to stage anti-air exercise in late February" by the Hong Kong newspaper 'Sing Tao Jih Pao' on 31st January; subheadings as published "..... According to [President] Jiang Zemin's requirements outlined at a recent meeting of the Central Leading Group for Taiwan Affairs on "preparations for both eventualities," the People's Liberation Army [PLA] is to stage a large-scale anti-air exercise in Fujian in late February. Massive anti-air missile forces and various types of warplanes recently have arrived in Fujian. For the first time, a newly established reserve missile brigade will participate in the military exercise. A source pointed out that the mainland will conduct a completely defensive military exercise in the run-up to Taiwan's presidential elections. The anti-air live-ammunition exercise involving a large number of anti-air missiles and warplanes can put pressure on Taiwan independence forces. Because it is a "defensive exercise," it will not serve as an excuse for the United States and other countries to intervene in the mainland manoeuvre......"

BBC Summary of World Broadcasts 2/2/2000 'Sing Tao Jih Pao', Hong Kong, in Chinese 1 Feb 00 p A13 Text of "special dispatch": "Chinese destroyer purchased from Russia to sail up north via Taiwan Strait" by the Hong Kong newspaper 'Sing Tao Jih Pao' on 1st February "..... China's state-of-the-art SS "Hangzhou" missile destroyer, which was purchased from Russia, is sailing from the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific on its way to China. It is expected to sail up north via the Taiwan Strait in the next few days. The Taiwanese Armed Forces are going all out to track and monitor its movements. The sophisticated missile destroyer of the Chinese Navy is the first of two missile destroyers of the same class purchased from Russia in 1996. The second is expected to be delivered at the end of this year. According to a Taiwan Defence Ministry official, the warship was delivered at Saint Petersburg Northern Shipyard, Russia, on 25th December 1999. After weighing anchor, it sailed southward along the eastern side of the Atlantic and crossed the Indian Ocean, and it will soon enter the Pacific Ocean. It is likely to pass through the Taiwan Strait in early February on its way north, sailing close to the mainland coast instead of being too close to the central line of the strait....."

South China Morning Post 2/2/2000 Greg Torode and Agencies "..... The US House of Representatives early this morning passed a controversial new law expanding military ties with Taiwan despite Clinton administration fears - and warnings from Beijing - that it will worsen cross-strait tensions. The Taiwan Security Enhancement Act forges extensive military links covering training and communications at the highest level between US forces and the island - while paving the way for more arms deals. Supporters among both Republican and Democrat members stressed the act would send an important message in support of Taiwan's democracy to the Mainland. The Taiwan security bill, introduced by Tom DeLay of Texas, one of the most powerful Republicans in the House, was approved 32-6 in October by the House International Relations Committee. It would require the President to report to Congress annually on Taiwan's defence requests and make it harder for the administration to limit arms sales to Taipei. ...."

Washington Times 2/2/2000 Audrey Hudson ".....House Democrats ignored White House warnings of a presidential veto and joined Republicans yesterday in overwhelmingly passing a bill to bolster military ties between the United States and Taiwan. The bill passed by a 341-70 vote with 140 Democrats breaking ranks, despite additional warnings from China the legislation could inflame U.S. relations with Beijing. "Bipartisan dedication to this cause shows how both sides of the aisle can come together under the goal of peace through strength, and Taiwan desperately needs America's help," said House Majority Whip Tom DeLay, sponsor of the bill. The Texas Republican warned that any split in support for the tiny island off the coast of mainland China would be detrimental. "Any mixed signals by our government can easily be read by Communist China as complacency, so we must erase all doubt that we are fully committed to Taiwan," Mr. DeLay said.......The vote came as the CIA supplied Congress with a report identifying China as one of the world's major suppliers of goods and technology to rogue states seeking nuclear, chemical and biological weapons and missiles......."

American Foreign Policy Council, Washington, DC 1/24/2000 Al Santoli "….. January 5: In Beijing, Foreign ministry spokesman Zhu Banzao told reporters that in the new year, Beijing will focus on reunifying Taiwan with "the Motherland" and building stronger ties with developing countries, Agence France Presse reports. "The Chinese government and people can by no means tolerate the separation or independence of Taiwan," Zhu stated. "Taiwan will join the WTO in the name of a separate customs zone of China..." January 12: More than 100 People's Liberation Army aviation school graduates have undergone a two-year aircraft carrier training program at a northern airport, using a simulator based on the landing pad of the decommissioned Australian aircraft carrier Melbourne which China bought as scrap, reports Agence France Presse. January 17: Chinese Defense Minister Chi Haotian began a three-day visit to Moscow, telling Russian media that his government is "standing up to the United States," the Associated Press reports. Russian Defense Minister Igor Sergeyov said the two countries would sign a memorandum on closer military cooperation. Military relations are "intensively expanding," Sergeyov said. Among military systems Moscow has sold to the Chinese include the S-300 anti-aircraft system and a license to produce Russian-designed SU-27 jet fighters, worth several billion dollars. "China's government is standing up to US attempts to set up both a national anti-ballistic missile system and a theater of war anti-ballistic missile system." Russia is also vehemently opposed to US anti-missile efforts. ….."

South China Morning Post 1/29/2000 AP "… Taiwan plans to buy three more sets of US-made Patriot missiles and several US guided-missile warships to beef up defences against Beijing, newspapers reported yesterday. Newspapers quoted Premier Vincent Siew as saying the weapons were needed to counter the cruise missiles and M-series missiles being developed by the mainland. …… "

South China Morning Post 1/29/2000 AFP "…. The United States warned General Xiong that a Chinese missile build-up had raised the issue of whether to supply Taiwan with theatre missile defences, a senior US defence official said yesterday. Washington had made no decision, said Under-Secretary of Defence Walter Slocombe, who led the US side in the talks at the Pentagon. "But we also made clear that one of the reasons why this is an issue is the build-up of Beijing missile capability, and . . . obviously the level of Chinese deployments is a relevant factor," he said. …."

South China Morning Post 1/29/2000 Vivian Pik-kwan Chan "…. Beijing warned Taipei yesterday that any attempt to declare independence would lead to war but promised to adopt a more flexible version of the "one country, two systems" model to resolve the Taiwan problem. "We have never compromised in the least on a major issue of principle [such as reunification]," Vice-Premier Qian Qichen told a seminar to mark the fifth anniversary of President Jiang Zemin's speech on national unification. "We have always stuck to our word," Mr Qian said, referring to the longstanding threat to invade if Taiwan declared independence. "Taiwan independence could only mean war between the two sides of the [Taiwan] Strait. "Taiwan splittist forces need not draw fire against themselves. He who plays with fire will be burnt," he said. ….."

Taipei Times 1/27/2000 Allan Patience "….With Macau now firmly under Beijing's control, predictions about Taiwan's future are intensifying. According to the Communist leadership, "renegade" Taiwan must soon be brought back into the Chinese fold. The curious thing is that Western opinion seems to be moving in a similar direction. Many US and European obser-vers are speculating that, if the West really wants access to the fabulous markets that 1.3 billion Chinese entail, they may have to sacrifice Taiwan. The sheer size of China's alleged emerging superpowerdom, in both economic and military terms, suggests that an accommodation with President Jiang Zemin (¦¿¿A¥Á) and his comrades (and successors) is inevitable. In the light of the Korean and Vietnam Wars, Western opinion was once firm on the principle of non-communist Taiwan's independence. But in 1972 the `one China´ doctrine was announced by President Richard Nixon and Zhou Enlai ((c)P(r)¦¨Ó). The US moved subtly away from Taiwan, providing Beijing with military technology, intelligence and propaganda support for its anti-Russian stance. …."

Taipei Times 1/25/2000 "….The US Secretary of Defense recently released a report suggesting that Taiwan's defense policy and procurement decision-making processes are poorly coordinated. The report, titled "Taiwan's National Security, Defense Policy and Weapons Procurement Processes," was written by Michael Swaine, a China expert at the Rand Corporation's National Defense Research Institute in the US. In the report, Swaine suggests that Taiwan's national security is poorly coordinated, both within the top levels of the senior leadership and between the civilian and military elite. As a result, he wrote, Taiwan lacks a strategy that can integrate and guide its foreign and defense policies. The report also claims that the motivation for President Lee Teng-hui (§õµn1/2÷) to push Taiwan to join in the proposed Theater Missile Defense system, currently being researched by the US, is to calm people's fears of China's missile threats and to strengthen the military relationship between Taiwan and the US. In his report, Swaine said Lee ignored the costs of the TMD and the possibility that it could provoke China…."

Inside China Today 1/24/2000 Reuters "…. China is bulging with surplus corn and is well-positioned to sell that grain to neighboring Taiwan, displacing millions of tons of U.S. corn - but only if icy political relations eventually thaw. Though not on speaking terms with each other, the governments in Beijing and Taipei are progressing towards joining the World Trade Organization - probably by midyear - and that in principle should mean far freer bilateral trade. But Taiwan says that even after both enter the WTO, it may not end its official ban on direct trade with communist China until it reaps sufficient political dividends...."

Inside China Today 2/11/00 AFP "…China's new Russian-built Sovremenney (modern) class destroyer will cruise through the Taiwan Strait around midnight Friday on its way to a mainland naval base, defense officials said. "The 7,600-ton destroyer, escorted by China's East Sea fleet, will sail along the mainland coast in darkness to the fleet's base at Ningpo harbor in Zhejiang province," the Central News Agency (CNA) quoted defense officials as saying. "Taiwan's armed forces have been deployed to monitor closely the progress of the fleet," a defense official told AFP. The warship, one of two ordered from Russian armaments company Rosvooruzheny, will be commissioned into the East Sea fleet, the CNA said. ….."

Associated Press 2/10/00 "…..China's acquisition of a Russian-built destroyer is not expected to pose a significant threat to the U.S. military presence in Asia, the State Department said Thursday. ``While clearly improving China's naval capabilities, it is fair to say the appearance of one additional modern warship will not fundamentally alter the regional balance of power, spokesman James P. Rubin said. A Taiwanese defense expert said Wednesday U.S. ships that have protected Taiwan could be threatened by the delivery of the Sovremenny-class destroyer. Lin Cheng-yi, a researcher at the state-run Academia Sinica research center in Taipei, said the 8,000-ton destroyer, equipped with SSN22 anti-ship missiles, would threaten Taiwanese ships as well. ….."

AP 2/9/00 Annie Huang "….U.S. ships that have protected Taiwan could be threatened by the delivery of China's first Russian-built Sovremenny-class destroyer, a Taiwanese defense expert said Wednesday. Lin Cheng-yi, a researcher at the state-run Academia Sinica research center in Taipei, said the 8,000-ton destroyer, equipped with SSN22 anti-ship missiles, would definitely pose a threat to U.S. and Taiwanese ships. "There will be fewer and fewer U.S. carriers sailing near the Taiwan Strait" with the deployment, Lin said. The ship, piloted by Chinese sailors, left a Russian port in St. Petersburg on Jan. 3 and Russian officials said it would take three weeks to reach China. The destroyer was expected to stop along the way to perform tests, officials said. ….."

Washington Post 2/10/00 John Pomfret "…..China's purchase of two $800 million, Russian-built destroyers, the first of which sailed through the Strait of Taiwan this week en route to a Chinese naval base, highlights a blossoming military relationship between Moscow and Beijing that is raising concerns in Asia and the West. Western experts and Asian diplomats say that over the last year, and especially since the Kosovo war last spring, Moscow's security ties to Beijing have surpassed the simple cash-for-weapons transactions that characterized the relationship for years and are evolving into something more complex and potentially far-reaching..."

ABCNEWS.com 2/4/00 "…..China is warning that a bill passed by the House of Representatives could lead to war with Taiwan - and that the United States could ultimately be dragged into the conflict. The Taiwan Security Enhancement Act, passed Tuesday by the House, 341-70, would provide direct military communications between Washington and Taipei, direct the U.S. military to expand its training of Taiwanese officers, and require an annual Pentagon report on the threats faced by Taiwan. "So what I'm saying is this legislation will push Taiwan closer to a war situation with the mainland, which might even drag the United States in," said Liu Xiaoming, deputy chief of mission at the Chinese embassy. "We do not want to see this happening."China sees the legislation as interference in Chinese internal affairs and a violation of previous agreements with the United States. But President Clinton threatened to veto the act should it pass the Senate, which is not considered likely at this point despite support by Sen. Jesse Helms, R-N.C. ….."

Los Angeles Times 2/6/00 Jim Mann "…..While China is officially neutral in the American presidential elections this year, Chinese officials and scholars make clear they would be happiest with a victory by Vice President Al Gore. One reason is the Chinese fear that a Republican president--even Texas Gov. George W. Bush, whose own father forged strong relations with Beijing--might try to go further in supporting Taiwan against China than either Gore or his Democratic rival, Bill Bradley. "We can foresee that if George Bush or another Republican comes to the White House . . . they will try to sell more arms to Taiwan and move closer to Taiwan," said Chu Shulong, a scholar at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations. …….. Any new U.S. president will eventually wind up with the same China policy, they argued, although some of the current candidates could create more trouble for China than others during the first year or two in the White House. ….."

The Oklahoman 2/4/00 "….On the day the House of Representatives overwhelmingly passed a bill calling for greater defense cooperation with Taiwan, Communist China demanded that President Clinton block the legislation. Well now, that's calling in an investment. Beijing's brazen demand could hardly come as a surprise at the White House, where Chinese influence -- clout may be a better word -- is taken seriously. Americans can only hope, in the wake of a Clinton- Gore campaign finance scandal covered with China's fingerprints, that our president can remember he works for us. The House bill, which drew 140 votes from Democrats, came the same day CIA Director George Tenet warned that China is building up its military forces opposite Taiwan. Tenet told the Senate Intelligence Committee the mainland continues to locate short-range ballistic missiles near the Taiwan Strait. According to a report in the Washington Times, U.S. analysts believe China will increase its missile arsenal from 150 to 650 over the next several years. …."

Inside China Today 2/7/00 Reuters "….China urged the world on Sunday to accept its goal of absorbing Taiwan along the lines of its unification with Hong Kong and Macau - or else risk consequences "you don't want to see." Speaking at a security conference in Munich, Germany, a senior Chinese official said it would be wrong for the United States to encourage recalcitrance among leaders in Taiwan by promising military support. "One China, two systems was a success story," Wang Guangya, Beijing's Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs, told an international audience of defense ministers, top military brass and defense analysts. "Sending the wrong messages to the leaders in Taiwan might lead to a result you don't want to see," Wang added, without elaborating. China has warned that the risk of war with Taiwan, which it regards as a renegade province, has risen after the U.S. House of Representatives supported legislation to provide more military training and support to Taipei. ......"

Agency France Presse 2/8/00 "…..China Thursday urged US President Bill Clinton to honour his promise to block legislation boosting military ties with Taiwan, and hurled invectives at the US Congressmen who approved the bill. Beijing is still seething over the US House of Representatives' decision to pass the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act on Tuesday, despite assurances from the White House the act would never become legislation. "The United States government, including President Clinton, have made commitments," foreign ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao told reporters. "We hope the US side will take effective measures and prevent this act from becoming law." China summoned US ambassador Joseph Prueher to express its displeasure over the Taiwan bill on Wednesday. "The ball is with the US side. It is up to the US side to take effective measures to prevent the act from becoming law," said Zhu. …."

Washington Post 2/9/00 Annie Huang "…..The delivery of China's first Russian-built Sovremenny-class destroyer could pose a threat to U.S. ships that have protected Taiwan, a Taiwanese defense expert said today. Local newspapers have reported that the warship could be delivered this month, but Taiwan's military, which closely monitors China, would not comment today on the ship's arrival date. China, which rarely publicly discusses its weapons acquisitions, has not commented on the issue...."

Wall Street Journal 2/9/00 "…..Sounds like a lot of fuss for a bill that may not make it through the U.S. Senate--and which President Bill Clinton says he'll veto if it ever does reach his desk. We're talking about the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act, which earlier this month sailed through the House by a 341-70 vote. Predictably, China's foreign ministry responded by expressing its "strongest indignation" at this "gross interference in China's internal affairs," summoning the U.S. ambassador for an official chewing out. …..And speaking for the American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong, Frank Martin told Agence France-Presse the bill was "unnecessary" and would "needlessly affront" China. ……. Clearly this is one argument. But it is an argument that would have more credibility if those advancing it could ever bring themselves to concede that China may at times be guilty of its own provocations. Trolling through our own database, Dow Jones Interactive, we found no criticisms from Mr. Martin when China decided to lob a few missiles off the coast of Taiwan in 1995 and 1996. Nor could we find a peep of protest from Mr. Lampton when Mr. Clinton unilaterally broke with the policy of four U.S. presidents by explicitly committing America to Beijing's interpretation of the "one China" policy. And we're still waiting to hear what Mr. Lantos thinks about the "divisiveness" of his own Democratic Party accepting campaign contributions from a Chinese military intelligence operative. …..It does make for a certain consistency: China is never to blame. Only Taiwan and the U.S. are "provocative" or "divisive." ….."

The Washington Times 2/17/00 James Morrison "…..The Chinese ambassador is warning the Senate that a House-passed bill to increase U.S. military support for Taiwan threatens China's security and increases the chance of war in the Taiwan Strait. Ambassador Li Zhaoxing, in a letter to all 100 senators, called the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act (TSEA) a threat to U.S.-Chinese relations. "Congress should approach the Taiwan issue with extra caution," Mr. Li wrote. "Failure to do so may entail explosive developments and risk unraveling of what our two countries have worked so hard and so long to build……… "Mr. DeLay doesn't need recommendations from communist China," said spokesman Jonathan Baron. "The great threat to U.S.-Chinese relations is the profound level of Chinese repression." ……. "

Central New Agency 2/16/00 Nelson Chung "…..The disturbing conclusion to an analysis by a renowned American think tank is that Communist China, despite an awareness of its relative weakness, might nevertheless be willing to use force against the United States or in a way that runs a major risk of US involvement, seeking primarily to achieve a political effect. In a 106-page study on "Patterns in China's Use of Force: Evidence from History and Doctrinal Writings" for the US Air Force, Rand Corporation analysts Mark Burles and Abram N. Shulsky wrote that one can easily imagine circumstances in which the Communist Chinese might believe such a political effect could be obtained. The most obvious cases would deal with Taiwan and would seek to exploit the ambiguities in the US commitment to defend the island, especially under circumstances in which a Taiwanese action could be viewed as having precipitated the crisis. "In such a case, Chinese use of force could be directed toward affecting US policy and driving a wedge between Taiwan and the United States," said the authors. Force could also be used to influence the political situation in Taiwan. By raising fears of a major military action, mainland China might hope to exacerbate tensions on the island between those willing to run major risks for eventual independence and those who do not wish to change the status quo, they pointed out. Other possibilities for mainland Chinese use of force are more remote, said the analysis. "One could imagine Chinese military actions in the South China Sea in support of its territorial claims. While this could easily involve minor incidents, it is more difficult to imagine how a major clash between the United States and China might result." ......"

Times of India 2/26/00 "......President Bill Clinton says a trade deal with China is a ``once-in-a-generation'' opportunity that should not be rejected because of Beijing's human rights problems, global arms sales or threats against Taiwan. The deal is vital for America's economic and national security interests, Clinton said Thursday, and it would be ``a devastating setback'' if Congress killed the accord. The President spoke about China in an economic speech in Philadelphia and earlier in Washington before the Business Council, a gathering of corporate leaders eager to win access to China's market, the largest in the world. ...."

A.P. 2/25/00 John Leicester "……As China's government steps up pressure on Taiwan, the United States is sending the commander of U.S. Pacific forces to hold talks with Chinese military leaders, a U.S. official said Friday. Admiral Dennis Blair's visit starting Sunday comes less than a week after China threatened to attack Taiwan if the island refuses to heed Beijing's repeated demands to talk about reunification. China and Taiwan split amid civil war 51 years ago, and Beijing still regards the island as part of its territory. Blair will meet Chinese military leaders in Beijing and travel to the southern city of Nanjing, said the U.S. official, who requested anonymity. He gave no details of whom Blair would meet or what would be discussed. ….."

Taiwan Headlines 2/25/00 "…….The ROC Ministry of National Defense yesterday refused to comment on Washington's strident response to the PRC's recent white paper on Taiwan affairs, and Defense Ministry officials also declined to respond to reports that the USS Kitty Hawk carrier squadron has left its home port in Japan to patrol the Taiwan Strait area. The MND did, however, state that the ROC opposes the use of force to resolve the cross-strait issue. The MND stressed that, rather than foreign goodwill and support, national defense must be built upon ongoing strengthening of armaments and rigorous intelligence of enemy conditions. ….."

Singapore "Straits Times". 2/25/00 "…..Two US aircraft carriers were reportedly heading towards Taiwan, Taiwanese newspapers reported yesterday. The US Defence Department, however, denied that the movements of the Kitty Hawk and Nimitz had anything to do with the latest cross-strait tension, according to the United Evening News. A defence spokesman said that the Kitty Hawk's voyage this week was a routine one and it would undergo a series of drills in the Philippines Sea before returning to Japan, where it is stationed, in two weeks' time. ….."

From the U.S. State Dept. Press Briefing 2/22/2000 "….QUESTION: Jamie, do you have a response to China's White Paper that was issued yesterday warning Taiwan that, if it didn't reunify soon, it would use military force?
MR. RUBIN: Let me say that it's a very long and careful examination that needs to be done of a document this long and significant. We do note with concern China's statement in this document that an indefinite delay in cross-strait negotiations would be a reason to use force. The threat of the use of force to resolve the Taiwan question is contrary to the commitments contained in the communiqués that form the bedrock of our policy. In our view - in our very clear view - issues between the two sides should be resolved peacefully.
So we reject the use of force or the threat of the use of force as a way of resolving the Taiwan question. We believe the issue must be resolved peacefully. And as a result of this document, we have communicated to China, both in Beijing and will in Washington today, our view and the importance we attach to urging China as well as Taiwan to refrain from actions or statements that increase tensions, make dialogue more difficult to achieve and, instead, to take steps that would foster dialogue, reduce tensions and promote mutual understanding. Obviously, it is up to China and Taiwan to determine what is the basis for dialogue, but we certainly have an abiding interest in the peaceful resolution of differences between China and Taiwan. …..

QUESTION: Strobe Talbott was in China last week, wasn't he?
MR. RUBIN: Yes.
QUESTION: This subject came up?
MR. RUBIN: Yes, Strobe Talbott and Deputy Secretary Talbott's delegation discussed Taiwan in a number of different fora. The subject was discussed extensively. He reiterated the policy that I've laid out for you and made very clear our position that a resolution of this issue must be done peacefully. He urged restraint and encouraged efforts to move the cross-strait dialogue forward. So this issue was discussed with his interagency delegation in a number of different meetings.
QUESTION: Was he told of this White Paper?
MR. RUBIN: He was not. His delegation was not told of the White Paper in advance.
QUESTION: Doesn't this indicate then that he failed in his efforts to -
MR. RUBIN: I know there is nothing you like better than being able to put that in your lead, but the United States has had a different view from China on the question of Taiwan for a long, long time, and the fact that in a series of meetings Deputy Secretary Talbott was not able to overcome decades' worth of US-China differences on exactly how to proceed on Taiwan shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone….."

Inside the Pentagon 2/17/00 Keith Costa "…….With national elections scheduled next month in Taiwan, and the possibility that China may take some form of military action against the island, the Taiwan Strait has arguably surpassed the Korean peninsula as the most dangerous flashpoint in East Asia, according to a key Republican adviser to the House International Relations Committee. The "potentially explosive situation in the Taiwan Strait" may ultimately force the United States "to make serious national security policy decisions involving the employment of American military forces," said Peter Brookes, the committee's principal adviser for East Asian affairs. ......"

Taiwan Headline News - China Times 2/24/00 "…….According to an exclusive report on Japan's Fuji Television station yesterday, U.S. aircraft carrier Kitty Hawk sailed from its base yesterday morning, bound for waters near Taiwan. According to the report, the carrier is being sent to the Taiwan area because the island will hold its presidential election next month. Fuji Television further reported that the U.S. carrier movement is similar to that of April 1996, when the United States dispatched the U.S.S. Independence battle group south from Japan to the east of Taiwan. The Independence was followed by the U.S.S. Nimitz battle group, which raced to East Asia from the Red Sea. According to a reliable source, the Nimitz may again be assigned to the Taiwan area. The two carriers are expected to begin patrolling the strait by the end of the month, and will remain in the area until after the election. …….According to the source, who preferred to remain anonymous, arrangements were made as early as two weeks ago for the Kitty Hawk and Nimitz to sail on this mission. Their movements, therefore, should not be directly linked to the white paper on Taiwan Beijing issued on February 21. ….."

Chinatimes 2/25/00 "….Beijing's white paper on its policy toward Taiwan is a gambit aimed more at Washington than at Taipei, independent presidential candidate Hsu Hsin-ling said on Friday. The former chairman of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party said that Beijing, believing that the way to Taipei is through Washington, is obviously trying to pressure Washington into convincing Taipei to open political dialogue with the mainland. Taiwan has refused to negotiate with Beijing on the ultimate reunification of the two sides before the communist regime gives up force as an option in dealing with Taiwan. Describing the United States a country well-honed in politics, Hsu predicted it will follow what he called a "precautionary defense," by warning Beijing against military adventurism and by "sort of coercing" Taiwan into talking with Beijing to eliminate any possibility of conflict. ….."

WorldNetDaily 2/23/00 Charles Smith "….On Monday, China issued a so-called white paper titled, "The One-China Principle and the Taiwan Issue." In effect, China openly declared that the "motherland" will rescue its long lost brothers and sisters in Taiwan, even if it has to murder everyone on the island to accomplish that task. Included in the paper is a warning from an ever more belligerent Beijing aimed directly at America. According to the red leaders in Beijing, if there is no "settlement of cross-Straits reunification through negotiations then the Chinese government will only be forced to adopt all drastic measures possible, including the use of force, to safeguard China's sovereignty and territorial integrity." …."

WorldNetDaily 2/23/00 Charles Smith "….Yet, as the Taiwanese people reach for democracy, the western powers cower in the shadows of Beijing and the massive People's Liberation Army. In America, President Clinton presses Congress to expand trade with Beijing, ignoring the threats, bypassing the espionage, glossing over the fascist repression sweeping China, and allowing an ever more powerful Chinese military to reign free across the shores of the Pacific....According to Rohrabacher and his research team, "Taiwan is dangerously vulnerable to air and missile attacks. Currently, Taiwan has less than one minute warning time to prepare to defend against a ballistic missile launch by the PRC, and less than 3 minutes warning time to defend against high performance jet fighter-bombers taking off from PRC bases." "The best means to prevent PRC aggression against Taiwan during the March election and in the near future is for the United States government to rapidly upgrade Taiwan's defense capabilities," states Rohrabacher's report….."

South China Morning Post 2/23/00 "…… One reason for Beijing's new threat "to adopt all possible drastic measures, including military force", against Taiwan is clear. Chinese leaders increasingly are frustrated by their inability to bring about unification and fear the island is drifting away politically and culturally. So their message on Monday was a warning to Taiwanese who will select a new president on March 18: if you choose someone who might declare independence, or refuse to negotiate about a common future, there will be serious and probably violent trouble. But whether that was a wise message is another matter. It did make the anxiety level go up and several stock markets go down. However, it is not likely to speed the political result which Beijing seeks, nor reassure the Taiwanese as they ponder their own destiny. Neither will it help China improve relations with the developed world, notably the US, which is key to its development strategy……"

Washington Post 2/24/00 John Pomfret ".....The People's Liberation Army today applauded Beijing's warning to Taiwan to start talks on reunification or face attack, vowing that the ultimatum would increase the vigilance of China's armed forces. The statement appeared in the People's Liberation Army Daily, the official publication of China's military. Calling the threat "necessary and timely," the army's response underscored that, within China, the military will benefit the most from increased tension with Taiwan. ...."

International Herald Tribune 2/21/00 John Pomfret "….When Chinese missiles splashed down near Taiwan in 1996, the Taiwan Defense Ministry issued a statement to reassure apprehensive citizens: The missiles were unarmed, it said, and the warheads contained only a device to determine their accuracy. Issuing that statement, sources in Taiwan now acknowledge, was a mistake. The information tipped off China's security services that somebody high up was spying for Taiwan. As a result, they began an extensive investigation that in August resulted in the execution of a Chinese general, his mistress and a senior colonel, the sources said. Several other espionage cases also grew from the investigation, damaging Taiwan's ability to infiltrate Chinese mainland. What's more, the sources said, bureaucratic mistakes prevented Taiwan intelligence agents from sneaking the general into Taiwan as the investigation began. ….."

Foxnews.com 2/21/00 Charles Hutzler "…..With a month to go in Taiwan's presidential election campaign, China warned Monday that it might attack the island if Taiwanese leaders indefinitely refuse to talk unification. The threat, delivered in a policy paper from China's cabinet, was intended to increase the pressure on Taiwan's three presidential candidates. Although there was no immediate reaction from Taiwan's government or the candidates' camps, policy toward China has been at the center of the campaign, which ends March 18. Already this month, China sailed its newly acquired, heavily armed Russian-built destroyer through the Taiwan Strait. And Chinese President Jiang Zemin over the weekend toured military bases in southern China that would be the ones used in any invasion of Taiwan, the Hong Kong media reported. …… It included a warning to the United States to scale back arms sales to Taiwan - once a close ally whose defense Washington must by law assist - and "not to stand in the way of the reunification of China." ….."

South China Morning Post 2/23/00 Greg Torode "…..The White House yesterday issued a plea for peace across the Taiwan Strait, warning that Beijing "must accept the will and the aspirations" of the Taiwanese people. A senior administration official warned that China's controversial White Paper proposals warning of the use of force did not reflect that will. "The People's Republic of China must accept that Taiwan is a democracy," the official said. "Ultimately it is up to Taiwan and the People's Republic to determine the terms by which direct dialogue can be advanced." …."

South China Morning Post 2/22/00 Vivien Pik-Kwan Chan "…..Beijing warned Taiwan for the first time yesterday that refusal to negotiate on reunification could lead to military invasion. The dramatic ultimatum came in the run-up to Taiwan's presidential election on March 18 and days after the island's vice-president, Lien Chan, unveiled a 10-point package for reconciliation with the mainland. Beijing had previously said it would attack the island only if Taipei declared independence or if foreign forces became involved. Yesterday, it said it would be forced to use "drastic measures, including military force", if Taiwan indefinitely delayed negotiations aimed at reuniting with the mainland. The threat came in an 11,000-word policy White Paper issued by the Taiwan Affairs Office and the Information Office of the State Council. Zhang Mingqing, a spokesman for the Taiwan Affairs Office, said last night that the new condition was added to create "a sense of urgency" about moves towards reunification. The document, released by Xinhua, stressed Beijing's long-held view that peaceful reunification was best. But it added: "If the Taiwan authorities refuse . . . the peaceful settlement of cross-strait reunification through negotiations, then the Chinese Government will be forced to adopt all drastic measures possible, including the use of force. ……"

China Daily 2/22/00 Xinhua "…..The One-China Principle has been evolved in the course of the Chinese people's just struggle to safeguard China's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and its basis, both de facto and de jure, is unshakable, said a White Paper issued Monday by the Taiwan Affairs Office and the Information Office of the State Council. According to the White Paper titled The One-China Principle and the Taiwan Issue, all the facts and laws about Taiwan prove that Taiwan is an inalienable part of Chinese territory…….In August 1945, Japan declared surrender. On October 25, 1945, the Chinese government recovered Taiwan and the Penghu Archipelago, resuming the exercise of sovereignty over Taiwan. On October 1, 1949, the Central People's Government of the PRC was proclaimed, replacing the government of the Republic of China to become the only legal government of the whole of China and its sole legal representative in the international arena, thereby bringing the historical status of the Republic of China to an end. The White Paper said, this is a replacement of the old regime by a new one in a situation where the main bodies of the same international laws have not changed and China's sovereignty and inherent territory have not changed therefrom, and so the government of the PRC naturally should fully enjoy and exercise China's sovereignty, including its sovereignty over Taiwan. ......"

Washington Post 2/23/00 Steven Mufson Helen Dewar "….A top Pentagon official yesterday warned China that it would face "incalculable consequences" if it followed through on threats to use force against Taiwan. The stern warning came in response to a Chinese government "white paper" that broadened the reasons Beijing would consider sufficient for using force against the self-governing island. ….."

Inside China Today 2/22/00 AFP "….. Taiwan vowed to press ahead with plans to beef up its military muscle here Tuesday in the wake of China's threat of war with the island unless it entered re-unification talks. State radio announced Taiwan still planned to take delivery of 728 US-made Avenger missiles and 61 launchers in the next week. The arms shipment, worth an estimated 180 million US dollars, was agreed in 1998. The radio also said Taiwan would add 460 Stinger shoulder-launched missiles before the end of the year. Although he would not comment directly on the reported new weapons shipment, defense ministry spokesman Kung Fan-ding did say Taiwan would "keep beefing up" its military capability. "The military promise to guarantee national security by strength," Kung told reporters. …."

AP 2/22/00 Terence Hunt "…..The Clinton administration today rejected China's threatened use of force against Taiwan and recalled that the United States sent two aircraft carriers and other warships to the region to calm a crisis four years ago. ……China's most recent threat was contained in an 11,000-word official white paper, issued just weeks before Taiwan's second direct presidential election. China threatened to use force against Taiwan if its leaders indefinitely delay negotiations on reunification. "You will remember that in 1996 that we responded appropriately to what was viewed as a threat," Lockhart said. "And that should give you some indication of how we view this situation." ….."

AP 2/21/00 Charles Hutzler "…..Pushing rival Taiwan as it enters the final month of a heated presidential election campaign, China warned the island Monday that refusal to negotiate unification might draw war from the mainland. China's cabinet, in a new policy paper on Taiwan, added Taiwanese foot-dragging on unification to the usual provocations that Beijing has long said would bring a Chinese attack: foreign meddling or an outright declaration of independence by the island. While stopping short of setting a timetable for unification, the State Council policy paper signaled the communist government's growing impatience with Taiwan's resistance to Chinese overtures. Underscoring the threat of force, the Hong Kong media, which is widely followed in Taiwan, reported over the weekend that Chinese President Jiang Zemin was in southern China touring military bases that would contribute to any invasion force of the island. The tactics ominously echoed Taiwan's last presidential election four years ago. Then, China tested missiles near the island to dampen independence sentiment, and the United States sent in warships to bolster Taiwan, once a close Cold War ally, raising tensions in the area to their highest level in more than 30 years……"

AP 2/22/00 "…..The Clinton administration expressed concern Tuesday over a warning by China that it could use force if Taiwan delays indefinitely reunification talks with Beijing. U.S. diplomats relayed the administration's concerns to Chinese authorities in Beijing and Washington just a day after China issued the threat in an 11,000-page position paper. At the White House, presidential spokesman Joe Lockhart recalled that the United States sent two aircraft carriers and other warships to the region to calm a crisis four years ago. ``We reject any use of force or any threat of force in this situation,'' Lockhart said……"

Inside China Today 2/22/00 Reuters "…..China's explosive demand that Taiwan enter peace talks or face attack sparked defiant anger ahead of a March presidential election which hinges on the state of Taiwan-China ties. The first casualty of Beijing's newly widened threat of invasion was Taiwan's stock market, which at one point fell 3.2 percent, dragging Hong Kong and other Asian shares with it. The renewed tensions even hit China's own stock markets. Taiwan's slide was pared to 1.8 percent by institutional buying presumably orchestrated by a T$500 billion (US$16 billion) state stabilization fund recently established by parliament for use at just such times of political jitters. Analysts said Beijing's surprise ultimatum was sure to irk the United States and Japan, Taiwan's best friends despite a lack of diplomatic ties, but because Monday was a U.S. holiday Washington's view was unclear. …."

The Washington Post 2/20/00 John Pomfret "…..When Chinese missiles splashed down close to Taiwan four years ago, the Taiwanese Defense Ministry issued a statement to reassure apprehensive citizens: The missiles were unarmed, it said, and the warheads contained only a device to determine their accuracy. Issuing that statement, Taiwanese sources now acknowledge, was a bad mistake. The information tipped off China's security services that somebody high up was spying for Taiwan. As a result, they launched a massive probe that resulted in the execution last August of a Chinese general, his mistress and a senior colonel, the sources said. Several other espionage cases also grew from the investigation, damaging Taiwan's ability to infiltrate its bigger and more powerful neighbor. ……"

Associated Press 2/19/00 Annie Huang "…… With fireworks and dragon dances, candidates for Taiwan's presidency opened their campaigns Saturday as the military strengthened the island's defenses against Chinese attempts to influence the voting. Searching for votes in the March 18 election, the three candidates traveled in vans as they greeted people along main boulevards and side streets and addressed rallies in the capital Taipei. The candidates are competing to replace President Lee Teng-hui, who is retiring after 12 years in office. The poll will be Taiwan's second direct presidential election. The official Central News Agency reported Saturday that the Defense Ministry has set up a "crisis-control" task force to prevent China from sabotaging Taiwan's military bases or taking other provocative acts to cause social chaos. ….."

Straits Times 2/21/00 AFP "…..China is ready to engage in war and even nuclear conflict with the United States should fighting break out over Taiwan, Der Spiegel magazine reports on the basis of a supposedly-secret Chinese file. "Document No. 65", allegedly produced by the military sub-committee of the Chinese Community Party's central committee, discussed the possible course of a war over the disputed island claimed by China. "We would have to make a military intervention as early as possible, before the American troops are fully operational," according to the document cited by the German magazine. Faced with US bombardment of key sites and military installations, the document stressed that China has roughly the same level of conventional forces and would benefit from a fight close to its own territory. ……"

Washington Times 2/18/00 Bill Gertz Rowan Scarborough "….. The Pentagon is closely watching southern China for any signs the People's Liberation Army will conduct threatening military exercises in the next few weeks. The big concern is that the PLA will use the exercises to threaten Taiwan in the period before presidential elections now set for March 18. One recent Chinese news report said the PLA planned to conduct air-defense exercises later this month, but so far there are no signs….."

Insightmag 3/3/00 J Michael Waller "…..The People's Republic of China is actively planning a military invasion of Taiwan and is preparing to wage war against the United States - including firing its small arsenal of strategic nuclear missiles on the territory of the United States - if Washington attempts to defend the island. In an internal document from the Chinese Communist Party's Central Military Commission to all its regional commanders, Beijing says it hopes to absorb Taiwan through nonviolent means but warns of an "increased possibility for a military solution," arguing: "It is better to fight now than [in the] future - the earlier, the better." In the document, (see "China Prepares for War") Beijing envisions a blitzkrieg-like attack on Taiwan, launching a "first fatal strike" so that "the Taiwan forces have no way to organize effective resistance." Under this plan, "we will be able to control Taiwan before the U.S. intervention and then concentrate our forces to fight the U.S." ….."

South China Morning Post 3/1/00 AFP "…..China warned the US military yesterday that it would never rule out using force to win back Taiwan, and said Sino-US differences over the island needed "urgent handling". Defence Minister General Chi Haotian told the visiting commander of US forces in the Pacific, Admiral Dennis Blair, that China would never commit to not using force, Xinhua reported. General Chi said last week's White Paper on Taiwan, which warned the island it would face an invasion if it rebuffed attempts to reunify through dialogue, reflected Beijing's determination to bring about reunification. "The reunification cause of China is irreversible," he told Admiral Blair, who arrived late on Sunday for three days of talks with Chinese military leaders and visits to military installations in Beijing and Nanjing. …."

Inside China Today 3/2/00 AFP "….Former US president George Bush on Thursday sidestepped tricky comments by his son pledging to defend Taiwan from Chinese attack if elected to the White House, during a charity visit to Beijing. Looking sprightly despite being hospitalized last week with an irregular heart beat, Bush brushed off questions about the comments by Texas governor George W. Bush in campaigning on Wednesday. "I didn't come to here to discuss that," said Bush curtly, before opening a meeting of a charity designed to put smiles on Chinese children's faces. Bush also declined to comment on the escalating war of words between the mainland and Taiwan, which has drawn a series of strong reactions from the White House and US lawmakers. …."

Inside China Today 3/2/00 AFP "…..China warned the commander of US forces in the Pacific that Washington must stop all arms sales to Taiwan, a government spokesman said Thursday. Foreign ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao said Chinese officials told Admiral Dennis Blair the United States should adhere to a bilateral agreement in which it had promised "to reduce its arms sale to Taiwan until (the sales) finally stop." "This is a commitment made by the US side in written form and we hope the US will honor its commitment." The White House declined to comment Wednesday on a New York Times report that Taiwan had placed an order for US defense equipment including destroyers equipped with sophisticated radar and anti-missile systems. ….."

Inside China Today 3/2/00 AFP "…..China said Thursday its military was capable of invading Taiwan, rejecting the view of Western military analysts that it will be at least five years before it can launch an invasion. "The People's Liberation Army of China is fully capable and determined to maintain the sovereignty and territorial integrity of China," foreign ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao told reporters. "This brooks no doubt." China views the island, ruled since 1949 by anti-communist forces who fled there after China's civil war, as a renegade province and has refused to give up the right to use force to take it back….."

Washington Times 2/29/00 Frank Gaffney Jr. "……President Clinton is evidently oblivious to an ominous new reality: Beijing appears to have concluded that there is a window of opportunity for bringing Taiwan to heel. For the next 10 months, the White House will be occupied by a man who has accepted campaign contributions from Chinese agents of influence; a man who has formally, if ignominiously, embraced Beijing's line on its sovereignty over 22 million democratic Taiwanese. The alarming prospect is that the Chinese Politburo calculates it is far more likely to get away with murder - or more precisely, what might be called, "stateicide" - on Mr. Clinton's watch than on that of any of his prospective successors. Even Vice President Al Gore might prove less reliable from Beijing's point of view than the man he currently serves. Hence, we appear to have entered a period of particular danger, when an attack by China against Taiwan seems a distinct possibility, if not actually a probability…….. Mr. Safire correctly suggests that Taiwan may be seen by a Chinese government seeking legitimacy to be every bit as convenient a target as Chechnya was for the new leader of Russia. Even more relevant to China's calculations than the kid-glove treatment the United States is giving China's new-found "strategic partner" - Russia - however, is the message being sent by the administration when Mr. Clinton promises to "do whatever it takes" to secure congressional approval of permanent trading status for China. Beijing sees him muting concerns about its latest, explicit threat to Taiwan….."

Straits Times 2/28/00 New York Times "…..China's abrupt shift to a more aggressive stance on Taiwan left the Clinton administration scrambling last week for a response and struggling to temper increased pressure for new sales of sophisticated arms to Taiwan, congressional and administration officials said. Administration officials say they were given no hint of the shift by the Chinese, who made their announcement on Monday, just days after one of the highest-ranking US delegations ever to visit China spent two days in Beijing in talks that focused on urging restraint over Taiwan. The administration had hoped that relations with China were on the road to improvement, but they now appear to be entering an extraordinarily delicate phase, and a series of approaching events -- including Taiwan's presidential election next month -- threatens to make things dramatically worse. The new Chinese policy had apparently been in preparation for many months. It said that China would not wait indefinitely for Taiwan to reunite with the mainland and would consider a military attack if negotiations dragged on. ….."

NY Times 2/28/00 WILLIAM SAFIRE "….. The tectonic plates are shifting under China's political system. The resulting stress seems to be leading toward a political earthquake. How else to explain Beijing's apparently irrational threat last week of growing readiness to take Taiwan by force? Here is China, working closely with the Clinton administration to join the World Trade Organization, and thereby to further penetrate the American market while removing the annual human-rights pressure from the U.S. And here is China, working in Washington to block the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act, helping President Clinton prevent that nation of 22 million free Chinese from buying defenses against Beijing's new missile batteries across the Taiwan Strait. At this critical moment, with both China's W.T.O. admission and Taiwan's anti-missile defense in the balance in Congress, Beijing's Communist leaders undermine Clinton's efforts to help them. Moreover, they double-crossed Clinton in the most insulting way. The U.S. president sent a mission to Beijing headed by his closest diplomatic and military advisers. Their goal was to prevent any rash moves by China against dissidents or harsh rhetoric about Taiwan that would embarrass Clinton's pro-China backers in Congress. ….."

Taipei Times 2/28/00 Stephen Yates "….. China's recently released white paper, "The One-China Principle and the Taiwan Issue," is an appeal to power rather than to reason, and will disappoint anyone in search of rationality in China's Taiwan policy. The white paper's twisting of the truth puts the White House to shame, and the timing of its release -- on Feb. 21 -- defies common sense. But in the end, this white paper reveals a great deal about what kind of regional power China is becoming and intends to be. Perhaps it will finally teach leaders in Washington that power is the motivation, means and end of China's government policy. To such a government, all appeals to reason and interests fall on deaf ears. The essence of the 11,000-word white paper can be summarized briefly. There is only one China in the world. Beijing is the sole legal government of all of China. Taiwan is a part of China. This is the truth, because we say so. Not only must everyone acknowledge this truth, they must proclaim it as their own policy. Beijing is justified in using deadly force against any and all who dare question or challenge this eternal truth -- the one China principle. So says your master. ….."

US Department of State 2/28/00 David Rennie "….. THE Chinese military warned the United States yesterday that it would pay a "high price" if it intervened to defend Taiwan from any attack by Beijing's forces. A war over Taiwan could be another Vietnam, said a Chinese military strategist, but with the added risk of "extreme long-range" strikes - a threat presumably intended to include the cities of the western US, which are within range of China's nuclear missiles. "China is not Iraq, nor Yugoslavia," said a commentary in the People's Liberation Army Daily, the official military newspaper. "She is a country with certain strategic attack capabilities and long-distance strike capabilities. It would not be wise to fight a country like China."……. Western analysts confirmed that the People's Liberation Army, despite its overwhelming inferiority to the US military, had gained the ability to inflict significant casualties on the US Navy's Seventh Fleet - though at the cost of huge losses on its own side. ……"

Stratfor Alerts 2/28/00 "……Last week, Beijing exploded a rhetorical bombshell: threatening the use of force if Taiwan indefinitely refuses to negotiate on reunification with China. Washington split into two schools; one declared that the new statement meant nothing while the other worried about imminent invasion. Neither is correct. Indeed, China's new statement has less to do with Taiwan than it does with Beijing's ongoing attempt to re-define today's unipolar world into a multi-polar one. While Washington worries about bilateral ties, China is attempting to contain the United States on a global scale, through classic balance-of-power politics. ….."

CNS News 2/28/00 Patrick Goodenough "…..A senior US Navy officer began official talks with Beijing military representatives on Monday as a Chinese newspaper reported that Chinese armed forces had been placed on alert in several regions, including the coast opposite Taiwan. Admiral Dennis Blair, commander of US forces in the Pacific, is holding talks with People's Liberation Army officers, discussing Taiwan among other issues, a spokesman for the admiral said in Beijing. The visit was scheduled before China published a White Paper last Monday warning it would invade Taiwan if the island continued to postpone reunification talks. The tough new line alarmed Taiwan and prompted a strong reaction from the Clinton administration and US congressmen, but China dismissed the American response as "crude interference." …."

Hong Kong Standard 3/10/00 Fong Tak-Ho "…..At the height of a propaganda campaign timed to coincide with Taiwan's presidential elections, President Jiang Zemin yesterday called on the armed forces to be ready for combat, noting a strong military would guarantee reunification with the island. Mr Jiang's call came in a special television address. ``All the servicemen of the People's Liberation Army should be constantly aware of the need for combat readiness and continuously increase the army's deterrent capability and actual combat capability,'' Mr Jiang said. ``The stronger our defence becomes, the more guarantees we have for our country's security and reunification,'' he said...."

Worldnetdaily 3/10/00Charles Smith "……The Clinton administration has turned down a Taiwanese request for an advanced robot airplane, fearing it might be used to spy on mainland China. Last Month, San Diego-based General Atomics engaged in preliminary talks with the Taiwan military for the purchase of up to four Predator unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs. But State Department officials have denied General Atomics the export licenses required for the sale. As noted in Aviation Week & Space Technology ("Prospects Mixed For UAVs in Asia," March 6, p. 51), State Department officials refused the export because the robot plane was seen as having "too much range." …….. "

Taipei Times 3/9/00 Chang Kuo-Cheng "…..Several legislators recently held a news conference claiming that Beijing's intelligence forces cracked Taiwan's intelligence network in China after President Lee Teng-hui (§õµn1/2÷) claimed in 1996 that the Chinese missiles fired into the Taiwan Straits before the first presidential election lacked warheads. The veracity of this claim is still in question, but President Lee's comments could not have been the deciding factor in the case. The truly disturbing development is that most people have focused on Lee's comments and failed to consider the poor state of Taiwan's intelligence forces. ….."

Inside China Today 3/9/00 AFP "…..As China keeps up its daily barrage of war threats against Taiwan, Beijing warned Thursday that Washington's sales of sophisticated missiles to Taipei were increasing cross-strait tensions. Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao's warning during a press briefing came amid feverish tensions ahead of Taiwan's March 18 presidential elections. China was "always formally opposed to US sales of sophisticated weapons to Taiwan," Zhu said. On Tuesday, the Pentagon said it approved sales of 162 upgraded Hawk anti-aircraft missiles and items to upgrade radar surveillance on the island which the mainland claims is a renegade province. But China warned that in the current tense atmosphere in the region, the sales could upset the delicate relations among all three. "At present, China-US relations and cross-straits relations are both in a crucial moment in high sensitivity," Zhu said. …."

NY Times 3/7/00 Craig Smith "……. China's renewed threat of war against Taiwan has caused anxiety in the West, but Beijing's military options for attacking the island remain limited and impractical, a fact often overlooked in the furor in Washington. Though China's Army outnumbers Taiwan's six to one, the country lacks a transport fleet large enough to ferry a major invasion force across the Taiwan Strait. And even if it could muster the ships, China does not have the means to secure control of the sea or air separating it from the island to carry out such a deployment. "There's no way at this moment that Beijing has the weapons in its arsenal in sufficient numbers to undertake and sustain a major, full-scale assault on Taiwan," says Jonathan Pollack, a China specialist at the Rand Corporation in California. China does have nuclear weapons, but using them against avowed compatriots in Taiwan is highly unlikely. Most Western military experts say it will be years, if not decades, before the mainland mounts a credible threat. …."

The Times (U.K.) 3/7/00 Oliver August "…..TAIWAN said yesterday that China is preparing a "cyberattack" on the island before presidential elections to be held later this month. State-sponsored Chinese computer hackers are said to be ready to attack election centres, financial institutions and military command posts. Chang Kuang-yuan, an intelligence official, said: "We have to be more cautious from now until the presidential election against possible attacks from China on our government computer systems." …."

UPI (via newsmax) 3/8/00 Map Kernow "….The top United States military officer in the Pacific says despite China's tough rhetoric on Taiwan, he does not see any preparation for a large-scale military operation or exercise, although China does continue to deploy missiles that could reach the independence-minded island. Nevertheless, Adm. Dennis Blair, commander in chief of U.S. Pacific Command, said China cannot successfully invade and control Taiwan. "They would not be successful in taking it and holding it," Blair said Tuesday at the Pentagon. "I think that's the military reality underlying where we are right now, and that's what underlies the move toward a peaceful resolution" of reunification with Taiwan. "They are capable of doing a lot of damage to Taiwan with the several hundred missiles that they have, with the navy and the air force that they have," he said. "Any sort of conflict in that part of the world would cause a lot of damage and casualties," he said. …."

South China Morning Post 3/1/00 Willy Wo-Lap Lam "…..All wars are avoidable - except those that do break out. This truism says much about a particularly disturbing aspect of the Taiwan Strait crisis. In theory, the chances of bombs and missiles flying across the strait are still low. Yet the possibility of war being unleashed especially by irrational factors is blood-curdlingly real. Consider these alarming developments within the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the People's Liberation Army (PLA). First, a deadline for the reabsorption of Taiwan not only exists but has been moved forward. Last week, Beijing hurled a so-called paper missile at the administration of Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui by announcing that perpetual refusal to negotiate with the mainland constituted a criterion for the use of force against the island. The corollary of this threat, contained in a White Paper on Taiwan, is that Beijing will soon announce a "liberation timetable". Partly to calm the global furore this show of force has ignited, various cadres including Taiwan scholar Li Jiaquan have hinted the deadline will not come due until the year 2020. A Beijing source said the time-frame of 2020 first appeared in party documents about two years ago. The deadline, however, was moved forward at recent meetings on Taiwan called by President Jiang Zemin……"

THE WASHINGTON TIMES 3/6/00 Bill Gertz "….. China's most powerful general warned yesterday that any moves toward independence by Taiwan would lead to war. "Taiwan independence means war, while splittism certainly means that peace will not prevail," said Gen. Zhang Wannian, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission. Gen. Zhang made the latest war threat to Taiwan and "foreign forces" - a veiled reference to the United States - during a meeting yesterday with military delegates to China's national legislature. He is viewed by U.S. defense and intelligence officials as the Chinese military's top hard-liner…."

People's Liberation Daily – BBC 3/6/00 "……'Jiefangjun Bao', Beijing, in Chinese 6 Mar 00 "…..China's army newspaper 'Jiefangjun Bao' has said that millions of troops are standing by in combat readiness. Although the People's Liberation Army would prefer peaceful reunification with Taiwan, it is on high alert and will never sit idly by and allow any attempts at splitting China to succeed. Taiwan independence means war, the paper declares. ...... Since the return of Hong Kong and Macao one after the other to the motherland, the great cause of promoting the peaceful reunification of the motherland has entered a new historical stage. Putting an end to the situation of the separation of the two sides of the strait at an early date and realizing complete reunification of the motherland is where the fundamental interests of the Chinese nation lies, and is an irresistible historical trend. Because of this, the CCP [Chinese Communist Party] and the Chinese government have shown the greatest sincerity and made the greatest efforts to strive for the realization of peaceful reunification in accordance with the "one country, two system" principle. However, splittist forces that seek "Taiwan independence" and have cooked up the "two-state theory" have not given up their attempts to split up the motherland and have not given up their ambition of splitting Taiwan from the motherland at the so-called "legal" level. ….".

Reuters 3/6/00 "…..China's military kept up the rhetoric against Taiwan on Monday ahead of the island's presidential election, with the main army newspaper saying troops were ready to "resolutely smash" any move towards independence. "Taiwan independence means war," blared the headline of a front-page commentary in the Liberation Army Daily, echoing a phrase used by a top Chinese general in a speech to parliament on Sunday. Central Military Commission vice-chairman Zhang Wannian said independence forces in Taiwan were "walking ever further down the road towards splitting the motherland." …."

National Review 3/30/00 "……Reading the Chinese government's 11,000-word white paper on Taiwan brings to mind G. K. Chesterton's remark that madness consists not so much in a deficiency of reason as in an excess of it. Here, in all its terrifying minuteness, is the logic of the lunatic. At one point, the white paper argues-at some length-that to take into consideration the wishes of the actual people of Taiwan would be "undemocratic." One recalls that 30 years ago, this same Chinese Communist party was solemnly instructing its people that extreme leftism was a rightist deviation. Here, naked and shameless, is the demented arrogance of rulers who for 70 years have conducted their affairs by murdering anyone who disagreed with them. Here are 11,000 reasons that current U.S. policy on China-made up of equal parts incoherence and wishful thinking-is wildly, dangerously misguided. It is time for someone to say out loud what many China experts murmur in private: that in the matter of Taiwan, the Chinese obsession has no justification. Talk of "recovering" Taiwan ignores the fact that it has been ruled from China, as a Chinese province, for just twelve of the last 4,000 years….."

Orlando Sentinel 3/7/00 Charley Reese "…..The U.S. Congress should quit diddy-bopping around and just say no to Taiwan's request that America sell it advanced weapons. The bottom line is this: Is the United States prepared to go to war with China over Taiwan? I think that the answer is clearly no, and, that being the case, the United States should not provoke a conflict by selling advanced weapons to Taiwan. The government on Taiwan seems to be of mixed minds about reunification with China. Even the nationalist Chinese who fled to Taiwan after losing the civil war with the Communists in 1949 have always acknowledged that Taiwan is a province of China. ……"

The Hindu 3/5/00 F. J. Khergamvala and Sridhar Krishnaswami "….. EITHER China is blissfully ignorant of the implications of its actions on Taiwan in the United States; or Beijing simply could not care less. But whatever the rationale of China's leaders in ratcheting up the rhetoric against Taiwan, it does put the Clinton administration in a spot - that too an administration which in the last seven years has been bending over backwards to humour the leadership in Beijing. One perception here has been that every time there is an election in Taiwan, Beijing goes over the bend trying to remind its ``renegade province'' that force is around the corner if re-unification does not come through in the near future. ……"

Chinatimes 3/6/00 AFP "…..China ratcheted up the pressure on Taiwan Sunday two weeks before the island votes for a new president, with the highest leader of the People's Liberation Army threatening to take all necessary measures to "smash" Taiwan separatists. "Taiwan independence means war, while splittism certainly means that peace will not prevail," Zhang Wannian, vice chairman of the powerful Central Military Commission and the PLA's highest ranking officer was quoted by China Central Television as saying. Zhang was commenting on the work report of Premier Zhu Rongji read earlier Sunday during the opening of the annual National People's Congress where the premier said Beijing would "not sit idly by" if Taipei moves towards independence. "The Chinese PLA is completely determined, confident, capable and has the means to safeguard state sovereignty and territorial integrity and we will never tolerate or idly sit and watch the development of any kind of splittist plot," Zhang said at a meeting of military delegates to the Congress. …."

A.P. 3/2/00 "……Taiwanese leaders warn intimidation will only worsen relations. The United States, threatening grave consequences if China attacks, moves an aircraft carrier off Japan. The dynamics on display in East Asia's longest-running civil war seem a recipe for confrontation. With China and Taiwan caught in emotional domestic politics and the United States in between, the Taiwan Strait has entered a volatile period that will last months beyond Taiwan's March 18 presidential election. While there are no signs so far that China is mobilizing for war, Beijing has other ways to put pressure on Taiwan -- and, given the stakes and heated politics, the potential for disastrous miscalculations is high. ``A crisis cannot be ruled out,'' said Yan Xuetong, a scholar at a think-tank linked to China's spy agency who has researched the chances for war with the United States. ``If there is a military conflict with Taiwan, then the United States must be involved.'' For China, unification with Taiwan is a cherished national goal. The country's politically influential military maintains a tough line on the island, and nationalistic displays are likely during the 10-day annual session of China's national legislature, which opens Sunday. In such a climate, President Jiang Zemin cannot afford to look weak. ….."

Associated Press 2/29/00 "….. Seeking to ease tensions over Taiwan, the commander of U.S. Pacific forces warned Chinese military leaders Tuesday that any use of force against the island would be regarded "with grave concern" by Washington, a U.S. official said. Adm. Dennis Blair's appeal for restraint comes after China stepped up pressure on Taiwan ahead of the island's March 18 presidential election. In a declaration last week, China for the first time said Taiwan risked attack if it indefinitely rebuffed demands for unification talks. Blair's talks with Chinese Defense Minister Chi Haotian and Gen. Fu Quanyou were aimed at re-establishing contacts between the two militaries that Beijing severed when U.S. warplanes bombed China's embassy in Yugoslavia in May. But Taiwan dominated the talks so much so that other issues were barely discussed. Blair "made very clear" that China's recent announcement about Taiwan was "not helpful," both in its timing and its new threat of force, a U.S. official said on condition of anonymity. …."

newsmax.com 2/29/00 "….. Missiles will fly toward the U.S. if America comes to the defense of Taiwan in the event of an all-out war between the two Chinas, Beijing's official military organ has warned. American intervention in any military conflict between Beijing and Taiwan would result in "serious damage" to U.S. interests in Asia, the newspaper warned, adding that China would use long-range missiles against the United States. China is neither Iraq nor Yugoslavia but a very special country," according to Liberation Army Daily, the official military newspaper. China, the paper stated, "Is a country that has certain abilities of launching strategic counterattack and the capacity of launching a long-distance strike. The U.S. military will even be forced to [make] a complete withdrawal from the East Asian region, as they were forced to withdraw from southern Vietnam in those days." ……Observers noted that the latest blast in the war of words over the Taiwan issue echoed a 1995 warning issued by Chinese Lt. Gen. Xiong Guangkai, the Chinese army's top intelligence and foreign policy official, who said the United States would avoid intervening in a war between the two Chinas if it cared more about Los Angeles than it cared about Taiwan. …..Despite the ominous tone of Beijing's recent statements over the Taiwan issue, observers note that the Chinese have left gaping loopholes in their official stance. A senior Chinese official has, for example noted that in the section of last Monday's white paper threatening war, the official version of the document says that Beijing would use force only if Taiwan "indefinitely refuses to resolve the reunification issue by peaceful negotiations." "Notice that there is no timetable in the document, so you shouldn't worry that we are about to invade," the official told the Washington Post's John Pomfret. ….."

Reuters 3/1/00 "…..Most Taiwan residents believe China is the major obstacle to peace between the two rivals, according to a public opinion poll released on Wednesday, just weeks before the island's presidential elections. Fifty-five percent of 1,057 respondents said Beijing was to blame for the persistent animosity between the two sides, the poll conducted by the mass-circulation United Daily News showed. Last month, Beijing rattled Taiwan with a policy "white paper" giving the island an ultimatum to begin talks on reunification or face attack. China has viewed Taiwan as an estranged province that must eventually be reunified with the mainland since the Nationalists fled into exile on the island after losing a civil war to the COmmunists in 1949. Taipei espouses eventual reunification, but only after China embraces Western-style democracy. ….."

Reuters 3/1/00 "….A Taiwan freighter has gone missing along with its 21 crew near the Taiwan Strait, port and shipping officials said on Wednesday. The Strait separates the island of Taiwan and its political rival China. State television said the disappearance of the ship, Hualien Number One, has led to speculation that it was being held by Chinese. The shipping officials said an all-out search by marine and naval authorities failed to show any signs of a shipwreck. …."

The Straits Times 3/1/00 AP "…..US President Bill Clinton said yesterday politics was behind the "fairly inflammatory language" China used recently towards Taiwan, noting that "this is the political season over there, as well". China has long said it would attack Taiwan if it declared independence or foreign forces intervened. But in a significant escalation, Beijing said last week that it might wage war if Taiwan puts off negotiations on unification indefinitely. Yesterday, China's Defence Minister Chi Haotian told the commander of US Pacific forces that while Beijing wants peaceful reunification, it would never relinquish its right to use military force. ….."

Chinatimes 3/1/00 AFP "…..China issued a blunt warning to the US military on Tuesday that it would never rule out using force to win back Taiwan, and said Sino-US differences over the island needed "urgent handling". "China will never commit not to use force," Defence Minister General Chi Haotian told the visiting commander of US forces in the Pacific Admiral Dennis Blair, the official Xinhua news agency reported. Chi said last week's policy White Paper on Taiwan, which warned the island it would face an invasion if it rebuffed attempts to reunify through dialogue, reflected Beijing's resolve on the issue. He said Beijing wanted to follow the peaceful path, but if it was foiled it would have to keep all options open….."The reunification cause of China is irreversible," he told Blair, who arrived late Sunday for three days of talks with Chinese military leaders and visits to military installations in Beijing and Nanjing. ….."

3/3/00 BBC Summary of World Broadcasts "……According to a source, this is the most direct message given by the Chinese military to the US side, showing the Chinese military is psychologically ready to fight a battle against the United States at any cost. According to a source, the PLA high echelon is extremely unsatisfied with the statements that the US army is strongly concerned with the cross-strait situation and may at any time involve itself in the cross-strait disputes that were intentionally released by several senior US army generals around the Taiwan presidential election....... This source also reveals that the PLA's commitment to directly express its viewpoint to the US side was inspired by the statement of Joseph Prueher, US ambassador to China. Prueher, who served as commander-in-chief of the US Armed Forces Pacific Command in 1996, used to indicate that during the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, the US side was unable to find a channel of direct communications with the Chinese side. Therefore, this time National Defence Minister Chi Haotian and Chief of the General Staff Fu Quanyou specially expressed the Chinese military's attitude to Adm Blair during his China visit in an attempt to prevent the United States from once again carrying out provocations on the Taiwan Strait just like it did four years ago. Otherwise, they said, the PLA will fight a battle at any cost. According to a source, the Chinese side has intended to use the strongly worded statements of such top military leaders as Chi Haotian and Fu Quanyou to let the US side clearly understand the seriousness of the consequences and not take a rash and unconsidered action. …."

The Straits Times 3/4/00 "……Chinese President Jiang Zemin told former United States President George Bush here that China had "serious concerns" about recent American actions on Taiwan, the official Xinhua news agency reported. Mr Jiang told Mr Bush that recent US statements and actions on Taiwan "could not but make us feel serious concerns", the agency said. Xinhua quoted the Chinese leader as telling the former US president that Washington should "handle the Taiwan issue properly to avoid another setback of China-US relations". He also made conciliatory statements to Mr Bush, a top-level envoy to China in the 1970s, hailing joint efforts to mend ties after the US-led Nato's bombing of the Chinese embassy in Yugoslavia last year, Xinhua said. "It was not an easy mission to develop our bilateral relations to the current phase," Mr Jiang said. China-US ties have been strained over recent threats by China to take military action against Taiwan if it drags its feet on reunification talks. The threats were seen as an attempt by Beijing to influence the outcome of Taiwan's presidential election on March 18. ….."

The Straits Times Interactive 3/26/00 "…….China yesterday kept up its barrage of criticism against Mr Lee Teng-hui, describing him as "an incompetent leader" following his resignation on Friday as chairman of the Kuomintang (KMT) under mounting pressure. The official China Daily noted in an editorial yesterday that Mr Lee resigned "because he was held responsible for his party's loss in the island's election for a new leader last week". "His party's loss in the election signified the local people's disapproval of not only the party's policies, but also the performance of the President," it said. Suspicious of the former KMT chairman's real motive, the paper said: "His party's loss might indeed be a personal gain should he truly espouse a secret agenda for independence for Taiwan. ….."

Cato Institute 3/24/00 Doug Bandow "…..Transitions to democracy are often messy. But, Taiwan has successfully made the jump, as voters dumped the Kuomintang Party after a half-century of uninterrupted rule. Now, President-elect Chen Shui-bian, who was once jailed for his opposition activities, must exhibit the same political dexterity internationally in order to avoid war with China. Taiwan has been separate from the mainland for a century, but Beijing's demand for reunification has been growing increasingly shrill. Six days before the election, Premier Zhu Rongji warned Taiwanese voters not to elect Chen, whose Democratic Progressive Party once advocated formal independence. The People's Republic of China, Zhu explained, was willing to "shed blood." Chinese President Jiang Zemin responded to Chen's victory by offering to talk, but only with a Taiwanese leader who believed in "One China." Chen's aides speak hopefully that he, like Richard Nixon, can find an opening with the PRC. ….."

The Taipei Times 3/25/00 "……The US Army says it cannot predict how long it will take to find the cause of a Patriot missile glitch that prompted it to hurriedly replace hundreds of them in the Mideast and South Korea. It is still unclear what impact the glitch would have on Taiwan's batteries of Patriot missiles. The problem was first reported Thursday by the Wall Street Journal, which said Patriot missiles were pulled from approximately 11 batteries in South Korea, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Lieutenant General Paul Kern, a senior Army acquisitions officer, said Thursday that the decision to quietly replace the missiles with newer ones was made about 10 days ago and the swap was completed Tuesday. None of the seven countries that operate Patriot missile batteries was told about the problem until this week, Kern said. …..Asked why Israel, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the Netherlands, Germany, Japan and Taiwan were not told about the possible vulnerability of their Patriot missiles, Kern replied: ``We did what we thought was a very fair assessment of keeping the security of our forces and our allies in check, and we think we did it the right way.´´ ......"

The Taipei Times 3/25/00 "…….Minister of National Defense Tang Fei (­ð­¸) said yesterday he would not join the government of President-elect Chen Shui-bian (³¯¤ô«ó) who ousted the KMT in last weekend's election. Recent reports have said that Chen has visited Tang twice since the election, a sign that he would be asked to stay on in the new government. However, Tang has insisted on retiring after a 47-year military career, the defense ministry said in a statement. But Tang, now 68, may not be at odds with Chen, as he had already announced before the election that he would resign. ….."

Stratfor 3/25/00 "…….Taiwan's President-elect Chen Shui-Bian faces pressure from the military to abandon any thoughts of pursuing Taiwanese independence. A Taiwanese Defense Ministry spokesman March 24 reiterated Taiwan Defense Minister Tang Fei's decision not to serve in the Cabinet of president-elect Chen. The statement follows reports that Chen visited with Tang twice, apparently to ask him to join the new Cabinet. Tang's decision to resign is in part an expression of the military's concern with the Democratic People's Party (DPP) rise to power. Following the announcement of the March 18 election results, the Defense Ministry announced, "Now that the Republic of China has become a democratic state, the troops are placed directly under administration of the country, everything done by the Defense Ministry must comply with the constitution. According to the constitution and the law, a split of national territory and secessionism are banned." ………. The military is sending a clear and potentially dangerous signal to Chen and the DPP. Fundamentally, it is declaring allegiance to the constitution - rather than to the elected leadership - and warning that the leadership's platform may be unconstitutional. While not directly opposing the election of Chen, the military will not allow the new government to declare Taiwan's independence. …."

The American Partisan 3/24/00 Linda A. Prussen-Razzano "……. With the victory of Taiwan's Chen Shui-bian, a pro-independence candidate, the saber rattling from China has increased exponentially. As early as last month, the Strait Times warned that China had prepared Document No. 65, which detailed just how they would reincorporate Taiwan into their "One China" policy: "Document No. 65," allegedly produced by the military sub-committee of the Chinese Community Party's central committee, discussed the possible course of a war over the disputed island claimed by China. "We would have to make a military intervention as early as possible, before the American troops are fully operational," according to the document cited by the German magazine. "Faced with US bombardment of key sites and military installations, the document stressed that China has roughly the same level of conventional forces and would benefit from a fight close to its own territory. While arguing that the US would have little interest in starting a nuclear war over the island, the file said that Beijing would be ready to turn to its nuclear arsenal should circumstances demand. [1] ……"

The American Partisan 3/24/00 Linda A. Prussen-Razzano "…….If their efforts are simply saber rattling, they are putting on a good show. The Central News Agency has reported that roughly 1,000 fishing ships have surrounded the Pratas Islands, "forming what amounts to a blockade around the isolated coral atolls located some 240 nautical miles southwest of the southern Taiwan city of Kaohsiung." [2] This is apparently the beginning of a much larger assault. The Howangjio Weekly reported that preparations "included plans to send 200,000 fishing vessels with a 2 million-strong invading force to take over Taiwan." [3] The fishing vessels have also closed in on Matsu Island, near Fujian. Although the Ministry for National Defense denied reports of military movement into Fujian, a Washington source revealed that "war preparedness in that area has been stepped up." ……"

The Daily Republican 3/22/00 Tom Plate "…….In country after country that has benefited from new wealth, a rising, assertive middle class inevitably will demand political reforms. This was as true in South Korea in 1997, when voters chose long time anti-establishment figure Kim Dae Jung as president over the establishment's candidate, as it was in Taiwan this past weekend, when Chen Shui-bian prevailed. The problem when you give people power is that sometimes they will use it. ….."

AP 3/22/00 "…….BEIJING signalled yesterday it would uphold its hard-line opposition to any moves by Taiwan to raise its international profile, warning foreign countries against inviting President-elect Chen Shui-bian to visit. ``The Chinese government resolutely opposes any official exchanges between Taiwan and any countries with diplomatic relations with China,'' said Foreign Ministry spokesman Sun Yuxi. Beijing's diplomatic partners must demonstrate their commitment to the principle of one China by ``not allowing Chen to visit in any capacity'', Mr Sun said in a reiteration of Beijing's long-standing policy. Mr Sun offered no fresh pronouncements on fast-moving developments on Taiwan, repeatedly referring to Beijing's initial response to Saturday's presidential elections, which pro-independence candidate Mr Chen won, that it would watch and wait. Asked about outgoing President Lee Teng-hui's plan to resign as chairman of Taiwan's Kuomintang (KMT) party today, Mr Sun would say only: ``We are closely following developments on the island.'' KMT officials said Mr Lee, 77, would resign following the end of five decades of Nationalist rule. Mr Chen replaces him as president on May 20. ….."

3/22/00 AP Pauline Jelinek "……If Taiwan's president-elect, Chen Shui-bian, wants to visit the United States, there's probably no time like the present, Sen. Frank Murkowski said Wednesday - acknowledging a similar trip five years ago enraged mainland China. ``I recognize it could cause a few ripples,'' the Alaska Republican said. But he predicted a visit at this point would cause less trouble than if Chen came after his inauguration in May. China canceled several official delegations to the United States, postponed talks on technology sales and summoned the U.S. ambassador in Beijing in 1995, when current Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui was allowed to visit for a class reunion at Cornell University. ….."

Inside China via Drudge 3/24/00 AFP "……Hundreds of Chinese fishing vessels intruded into the waters of a frontier Taiwanese island Friday in an apparently orchestrated intimidatory gesture, a report said. The number of Chinese fishing boats sailing off Tungyin, one of several Taiwan-controlled islets near the mainland, has increased to about 240, the state-funded Central News Agency reported. A Defense Ministry spokesman told AFP that the reports were being checked. Dozens of Chinese fishing vessels were also seen in the area earlier this week after the election of pro-independence Chen Shui-bian as Taiwan's new president. ….."

The Straits Times 3/2/00 AFP "…….The Taiwanese military's state of "heightened alertness" declared on the eve of the island's presidential election will continue indefinitely, the military stressed yesterday amid reports that China had undertaken military manoeuvres in Fujian province opposite Taiwan in recent days. The special military status in Taiwan had been due to end at 8 am yesterday, but the military decided not to stand down additional servicemen placed on duty following the election of Mr Chen Shui-bian as the island's next president, a man loathed by China for his pro-independence leanings. "The new president was just elected," said a defence spokesman, who declined to be named. "The alertness continues, and it is not clear when it will be lifted. That will be contingent on future developments." ….."

Stratfor 3/19/00 "…….. Chen Shui-bian, standard-bearer for formal independence from mainland China, won the March 18 presidential elections in Taiwan, gaining 39 percent of the vote and defeating the nationalist Kuomintang (KMT) that has ruled since 1945. Upon winning, the next Taiwanese president issued a distinctly conflicting statement, saying that he rejected Beijing's formulation of the relationship between the mainland and the island nation - and insisting at the same time that he wanted peace. The government in Beijing seemed briefly unsure of what to do, finally saying that it would watch the new president across the waters of the Taiwan Strait. The scene is increasingly volatile. It is unclear that Chen can control the pro-independence forces that have propelled him to power, although he has softened his own rhetoric on independence. Beijing is likely to be confounded by this and the fact that a divided government will soon take shape in Taipei; the nationalists still control the parliament. More hardline factions in Beijing will view this with concern. Conflict right now is unlikely, but the clock on a larger confrontation is now ticking faster. ……"

RUETERS via ETHERZONE 3/20/00 "……The United States on Monday scrambled to contain the fallout from the victory of the pro-independence party in Taiwan's presidential elections, reaching out to both Taipei and Beijing. Senior U.S. officials were speaking to the communist leaders in Beijing, who had made belligerent threats of military action to try to stop the Taiwanese people electing the Democratic Progressive Party's Chen Shui-bian. The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Richard Holbrooke, one of the administration's top foreign policy figures, is in Beijing now and is expected to urge it settle its problems with Taiwan peacefully, And the White House said Lee Hamilton, a widely-respected veteran China expert and Democratic ex-congressman, was set to travel to Taipei in the coming days. U.S. analysts and officials said Washington was keeping a low profile, trying to persuade both sides not to act rashly. "There is a wonderful Chinese phrase -- 'Take a step back and you will see how high and broad the heavens are and how wide the oceans are', meaning sometimes you need to take a step back and let things cool down a little….."

Philadelphia Inquirer 3/21/00 Michael Dorgan "………While top Chinese and Taiwanese leaders lowered their voices yesterday, a Chinese military newspaper laid out in chilling new detail how China could conquer Taiwan by force. Beijing's tactics, the publication said, might include a neutron-bomb attack on Taiwan and a nuclear showdown with the United States. "The United States will not sacrifice 200 million Americans for 20 million Taiwanese," predicted one of the articles in a 16-page special issue of Haowangjiao Weekly, which is sponsored by the People's Liberation Army. "They will finally acknowledge the difficulty and withdraw." Haowangjiao, an arm of the State Commission of Science Technology and National Defense, an agency of the PLA, did not set a deadline for reunification. But it reported that China "will announce a timetable for reunification at the proper time this year." Although China's military tends to be the most bellicose of Beijing's official voices, no Chinese government publication appears without high-level approval and coordination. The escalating threat could be nothing more than a trial balloon from a hard-line faction, some U.S. experts speculated, but it would have to be an influential one……"

Newsday 3/21/00 John Leicester AP "……Despite calls by U.S. envoy Richard Holbrooke for Taiwan and China to resolve their differences peacefully, Beijing said Tuesday that China would never negotiate with anyone who advocates the island's independence. During two hours of talks with Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan, Holbrooke said he not only called for the two rival governments to negotiate but also repeated U.S. support for Beijing's position that Taiwan and the mainland are part of ''one China.'' In a parallel diplomatic effort, the Clinton administration is sending former U.S. congressman Lee Hamilton, an expert on Chinese affairs, to Taiwan on Wednesday to urge restraint from the incoming government. ….."

3/20/00 Patrick Goodenough CNS "…….China rejected an offer for a peace summit on Monday made by Taiwan's Chen Shui-bian, the new president-elect and the man who ended a half-century of nationalist rule to win Saturday's election despite market jitters and mainland saber-rattling. Chen heads the Democratic Progressive Party, despised in Beijing for its strong pro-independence platform. Nevertheless, Chen has called for talks between the island and mainland on the basis of equality. Chen dismissed the communist mainland's "One China" dogma - the notion that Taiwan is no more than a dissident province - which has defined relations between Beijing and Taipei for decades and forms the basis of most outside countries' policies on China. Chen said the issue of "One China" may be included on the agenda for discussions but could not be the basis for the talks. He said that such talks would have to be held by two parties relating as equals……."

World Net Daily 3/24/00 Paul Sperry "……Chinese army spies have burrowed so deeply into Taiwan's intelligence community that the U.S. government has stopped short of sharing relevant security information with Taipei, a well-placed source says. China's deep penetration casts doubt on the widely held notion that Taiwan could successfully fend off an attack from the mainland. If Beijing has an intelligence edge, it could translate into battlefield advantages should cross-strait tensions reach a flash point. The source, a U.S. government official, says the issue came to light in 1995, when U.S. intelligence first got wind of massive Chinese espionage at U.S. nuclear-weapons research labs. That year, a so-called "walk-in" Chinese official gave CIA analysts a package of Chinese military documents, including detailed drawings with exact measurements, that showed China had stolen design secrets to America's deadliest nuclear warheads, including the miniaturized W-88. U.S. intelligence figured Beijing advertised its heist to send a warning to the U.S. to think twice about defending Taiwan. ……."

New York Times 3/21/00 Erik Eckholm "…….With a few tantalizingly parallel sentences today, the president-elect of Taiwan and the president of China captured the exasperating and probably intractable differences in their views of Taiwan. "We can talk about 'one China' as long as it is not a principle," the victorious candidate, Chen Shui-bian, said to Taiwan reporters today. "As long as we are treated as equals, there is nothing we cannot discuss." His advisers regard the statement as a creative concession that may entice Beijing into talks. In Beijing, President Jiang Zemin repeated the formula that his government sees as generous: "The one-China principle must first be recognized. Under this precondition, anything can be discussed." On such wordplay are matters of war and peace decided across the Taiwan Strait -- or, more prosaically, the matter of whether the two sides can even sit together, as they have not done for years, to negotiate whether packages can be sent across without detouring through Hong Kong. ….."

The WASHINGTON TIMES 3/21/00 Bill Gertz "……Chinese military forces are engaged in amphibious landing exercises on the coast of southern China, but defense officials said yesterday the maneuvers are routine and do not appear aimed at Taiwan. The operations are an annual exercise involving several hundred marines and do not include large warship exercises, said officials who spoke on condition of anonymity.......... Taiwan today ordered its military back onto a state of "heightened alertness," but the Defense Ministry refused to say why. "We will continue to strengthen our combat readiness to ensure national security. We ask our compatriots to be at ease," the ministry said in an earlier statement, according to Reuters news agency. U.S. military and civilian intelligence agencies have been watching China closely to see if Beijing will follow through on the drumbeat of threatening statements by senior Chinese leaders in the days leading up to presidential elections in Taiwan on Saturday......."

Inside China 3/20/00 Retuers "……. A Japanese security expert visiting the Philippines warned on Monday China would commit political and military suicide if it attacked Taiwan at this time. Satoshi Morimoto, chief researcher of the Nomura Research Institute, also urged Japan to appeal to China and Taiwan to exercise "self-control" to defuse tension after the island's opposition candidate, Chen Shui-bian, clinched victory in presidential elections last weekend. "Personally, I do not think that Chinese political leaders (will) allow the military forces to make a military campaign against Taiwan," Morimoto said in a lecture on security cooperation in Asia before Philippine government officials, diplomats and academics. "I think this is militarily, politically a suicide." ….."

Source: Time Daily Online 3/20/00 "…….The consensual hallucination of "One China" is fading fast, and while armed conflict across the Taiwan Straits remains unlikely in the immediate future, it may have become inevitable in the long term. Taiwan's president-elect Chen Shui-bian began softening his rhetoric on independence from China even before his victory in Saturday's poll, and on Monday he called for peace talks with Beijing, an offer promptly rejected by President Jiang Zemin. The investors who bolted Taiwanese equities Monday, shrinking the value of the Taipei stock market index by 2.5 percent, may have had a savvy read of the long-term implications of the election: Chen's victory defies Beijing's insistence on bringing the "rebel province" back under mainland rule in the near future - a Chinese policy document released in February set a deadline of 2007 - and that puts the onus on the Communist party leadership to up the ante...."

The Associated Press 3/21/00 "…….Taiwan's legislature passed a bill Tuesday that would pave the way for direct trade and transport links between some of Taiwan's outlying islands and China. The largely symbolic bill calls for direct flights between the small islands of Kinmen, Matsu and Penghu to the mainland, but a more comprehensive bill has to be proposed by Taiwan's Cabinet before Tuesday's bill can take effect. The measure reflects a popular desire to overturn a ban on direct transportation and communication links that has been in place since both sides split amid civil war in 1949. China and Taiwan have been governed separately since Chiang Kai-shek's Nationalists fled Mao Tse-tung's Communists, and Beijing has repeatedly threatened war if Taipei tries to break away permanently. ……"

South Korean Times 3/20/00 Rhee Tong-chin PhD "……One of the areas where the U.S. is nonchalantly and carelessly _ certainly unthinkingly _ headed toward trouble is TAIWAN. If the present trends, policies and underlying idee fixe are not changed in the U.S., a Sino-American war will come as surely as tomorrow's sunrise. And regardless of the easy math of the military power comparison between the two, the outcome will not be that cleancut nor will it be that one-sided. Because history is a living thing, it is not easily predictable nor as logical as it seems. A million Joe Nyes might have temporarily buried the messages from Paul Kennedy, but never the substance of Paul Kennedy's enduring historical argument that he spelled out in that now forgotten book _ The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict From 1500 to 2000 (New York, 1987). Columnist Rupert Cornwell recently wrote: ``But short of natural calamity...the main danger lies within. When [the famous phrase] 'The American Century' [was first coined], the notion implied responsibilities as well as rewards. But today, America increasingly assumes superiority as a birthright. A sense of duty has been supplanted by smugness, modesty by arrogance. Increasingly, it either ignores the world, or crudely tries to thrust the American model upon it....History and human nature alike suggest that American hegemony cannot continue forever……"

Associated Press 3/21/00 Renee Schoof "…..Seeking to nudge Beijing and Taiwan into talks, a senior U.S. envoy told the Chinese foreign minister today that Washington wanted the rival governments to resolve their decades-long estrangement peacefully. Richard Holbrooke, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, said he spent two hours talking "about everything" with Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan, including human rights, Taiwan and U.N. issues. Holbrooke said he repeated U.S. support for Beijing's position that Taiwan and the mainland are part of "one China" and urged peaceful negotiations between the sides. Tang conveyed to Holbrooke China's wish that the U.S. side recognize the "sensitivity and complexity" of the Taiwan problem and that it keep its commitment to support Beijing's "one-China" policy and avoid interfering in China's internal affairs, the state-run Xinhua News Agency reported. ......"

South China Morning Post 3/22/00 Jasper Becker "…… Mainland officials have ordered the temporary closure of a weekly newspaper, Haowangjiao, which on Sunday leaked details of Beijing's strategy to escalate, if need be, a conflict over Taiwan to a nuclear war. "It is being closed for two weeks because of an article recently published," said an official at its parent company, the Science & Technology Digest. …… Last week's edition said China was prepared to attack Taiwan with a neutron bomb if propaganda, mass demonstrations and diplomatic pressure was not enough to achieve reunification. "Even though we get a damaged Taiwan, it is better than not having Taiwan," the paper said. It also claimed China had developed a laser weapon in a secret research programme, which could be used against American planes. ….."

Chicago Tribune 3/22/00 Liz Sly "…….In days gone by, Taiwanese soldiers dug in along the beach of this frontline island would taunt their Chinese counterparts, clearly visible on another island, shouting slogans through bullhorns. "We are coming to free China," they would yell. "Return to the motherland," Chinese soldiers shouted back from their positions on Jiayu, just 2 miles across the water. These days the slogans have been replaced by pop music and news from the local radio station, though at levels barely loud enough to be heard.. .Far more significant, through the mechanism of the ballot box, ordinary Taiwanese have now broadcast with vivid clarity the one message China's leaders didn't want to hear, by voting into power a party that advocates independence from China. Though president-elect Chen Shui-bian has promised not to seek independence, those living within range of Chinese guns fear the election has significantly increased the risk of eventual conflict with China. "In the long term, there will be war," predicted Kinmen's mayor, Chen Shui-tsai, who believes Kinmen's proximity to China gives it insights into mainland thinking that other Taiwanese don't share. "China will never be able to tolerate Taiwanese independence, but this vote shows Taiwan is heading that way." ......"

National Post (Toronto, Canada) 3/22/00 Peter Goodspeed "…… Elite elements of China's armed forces may be pushing hard to go to war with Taiwan, even if it could result in a chilling nuclear encounter with the United States.......... One of the newspaper's articles openly advocates using neutron nuclear bombs, which kill people with massive doses of radiation but leave most buildings intact, to overwhelm Taiwan. "The PLA is determined to liberate Taiwan," the article says. "If they meet hard resistance, then they can choose to use weapons of mass destruction, like neutron bombs." The newspaper goes on to boast that China has developed new long-range missiles capable of carrying as many as 10 nuclear warheads each. It also says Beijing is in the "final stage" of developing an arsenal of mobile sea and ground-launched multiple warhead missiles with target ranges that vary from 8,000 to 14,500 kilometres. While acknowledging that a conventional military attack on Taiwan will inevitably draw the United States into a confrontation with China, the newspaper dismisses America's commitment to Taiwan. "The United States will not sacrifice 200 million Americans for 20 million Taiwanese," one of the articles predicts. "They will finally acknowledge the difficulty and withdraw." To further discourage U.S. support for Taiwan, the newspaper says China can adopt a three-stage strategy that relies first on issuing threats to Taiwan through the news media and mass public demonstrations. Next, China could seek to put diplomatic pressure on countries like Japan and South Korea not to get involved and finally, China could offer the United States major economic concessions, if it declines to defend Taiwan. If the threats and promises fail, China could launch a massive attack on U.S. aircraft carriers that would be sent to defend Taiwan, the newspaper says. In a worse-case scenario, the paper suggests China could also attack U.S. allies in Asia, as well as striking at U.S. military bases in Japan, South Korea and Guam. ......"

BBC 3/22/00 "…..Taiwan's new governing party has begun discussions on dropping its pro-independence policy. Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) leader and president-elect Chen Shui-bian promised before he was voted in last Saturday to drop any moves towards independence….."

Cnn.com 3/15/00 "…… Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji says Taiwan will never be allowed to declare independence, regardless of who wins the island's presidential election. "This is our bottom line, and the will of 1.25 billion Chinese people," Zhu told a press conference Wednesday to end China's 15-day National People's Conference legislative session. The three leading candidates in Saturday's vote -- Vice President Lien Chan, of the Nationalist Party; independent James Soong; and Chen Shui-bian, of the Democratic Progressive Party -- support independence for Taiwan. ......"

Philadelphia Inquirer 3/21/00 Quincy R. Jackson "……. The Clinton administration seems determined to precipitate an Asian war with its vastly conflicting statements regarding the fate and future of Taiwan. Defense Secretary William Cohen reflected the ambivalence of U.S. policy in recent comments regarding the Taiwanese elections and corresponding threats of war by the mainland: "We recognize a one-China policy. We also recognize that we have an obligation under the Taiwan Relations Act to provide defensive equipment to the Taiwanese people. But we do not support the use of force on the part of China, either." ….."

USA TODAY 3/22/00 Antoaneta Bezlova and Paul Wiseman "……. An obscure but official Chinese newspaper has described plans to invade Taiwan with a fleet of 200,000 fishing boats and to frighten the United States into staying out of the Taiwan Strait by threatening nuclear war, selling nukes to rogue states and seizing U.S. assets in China. The reports, in a weekly called Cape of Good Hope, are in sharp contrast to China's otherwise restrained response to Taiwan's presidential election Saturday……… It warned of dire consequences if Chen pursued a pro-independence agenda and if the United States intervened on Taiwan's behalf. The newspaper said:

* China might attack Taiwan with an armada of 200,000 fishing boats, manned by 2 million soldiers and armed with bazookas. The newspaper noted that a similar ploy worked for the Communists during the Chinese civil war and calculated that China would lose only 3,000 fishing boats.
* To prevent the United States from interfering on Taiwan's behalf, China would conduct civil defense drills to scare the United States into believing that a nuclear war was coming. If that failed, China would turn up the heat by abandoning its ''no-first-use'' of nuclear weapons policy and test a nuclear weapon.
* In a conflict, China would consider freezing U.S. assets and businesses in China; dispatch agents in America on ''subversive activities;'' seek diplomatic support from friendly states such as Russia; and sell nuclear arms to Iran, Iraq, North Korea and others.
* China might unilaterally declare a deadline for Taiwan to begin talks aimed at reunifying with the mainland if the island continues to ''procrastinate'' on reunification. In an official position paper issued last month, China warned it might use military force if Taiwan postponed reunification talks ''indefinitely.''
The Cape of Good Hope conceded that other countries might impose trade sanctions if China invaded Taiwan and that the sanctions might hurt the Chinese economy. But the newspaper argued that the sanctions wouldn't last long….."

China Times via Taiwan Headlines 3/15/00 "……According to a senior U.S. intelligence official interviewed on the Voice of America (VOA) radio network, a military conflict could break out over the Taiwan Strait as the ROC presidential election nears. The VOA report stated that U.S. military experts are closely watching tensions in the area, as four years ago Beijing employed missile tests in the effort to dissuade ROC voters from backing candidates who advocate Taiwan independence. The VOA report quoted Vice Admiral Thomas R. Wilson, director of the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, who stated that Taiwan is a potential flashpoint in Asia, and that as the air forces and navies of both sides actively prepare for battle, the danger of military conflict constantly rises. ….."

ETHERZONE 3/15/00 AP "…..Military relations are ''slowly mending'' between the United States and China, the commander of U.S. Pacific forces told Congress on Wednesday, but he warned that China's military balance with Taiwan could be thrown ''out of whack'' by a Chinese buildup. Adm. Dennis C. Blair said that while Taiwan has a better quality military and the People's Liberation Army lacks the capability to ''invade and control'' Taiwan, which China claims, China does ''have the ability to inflict significant damage to Taiwan'' with its much larger force. Testifying with other regional commanders before the House Armed Services Committee, Blair said he expects China's military budget to increase somewhat over the next several years but not the point where it will significantly alter the military balance across the Taiwan Strait. ….."

THE WASHINGTON TIMES 3/16/00 Edward Neilan "…… Taiwan looks forward to joining the World Trade Organization alongside China and believes their joint entry would help greatly to ease tensions between them, Foreign Minister Chen Chien-jen said in an interview. "There is no question that our relations across the [Taiwan] strait will be better as far as talks go once both of us are in WTO," Mr. Chen told The Washington Times just days before a presidential election that has driven cross-strait tensions to their highest point in years. Taiwan, whose economy measures up to world standards better than China's, is routinely barred from most international organizations because of Beijing's insistence that it is a province of China and can only be represented by the mainland government. But the United States and Japan pressed China, as part of the negotiations for Beijing's entry into the WTO, to agree to Taiwan's entry immediately after its own, which could come later this year……."

South China Morning Post 3/18/00 Raymond Cheng "…..Chen Shui-bian invited Premier Zhu Rongji to visit Taipei in a speech marking his historic election victory, but he rejected the mainland's ''One Country, Two Systems'' reunification policy. ''From this moment on we will work with other Asia-Pacific countries to build peace across the Taiwan Strait,'' he declared. In an olive branch to Beijing, Mr Chen said he wanted permanent peace with the mainland and called for direct communication links with Beijing and increased investment in the mainland. ''Constructive dialogue with China'' was vital to maintain stability, Mr Chen said, adding that: ''not just Taiwanese people but all Chinese people should be proud of this election''. However he stressed that: ''We should insist on Taiwan's independent sovereignty. ''This is not our job this is our mission. We are determined to safeguard this land.'' ….."

Newsday 3/18/00 AP "…..China's government announced Saturday that it would wait to see how Taiwan's new president handles relations between the island and the mainland, despite its earlier warnings that a Chen Shui-bian victory could lead to war. In a statement issued by state news media, Beijing repeated its assertion that Chen's election did not change Taiwan's status as ''an inseparable part of China.'' ''We should listen to what the new leader in Taiwan says and watch what he does. We will observe where he will lead cross-Strait relations,'' said the statement, attributed to the Taiwan Office of the Central Committee of the Communist Party and the State Council's Taiwan Affairs Office. ….."

Los Angeles Times 3/17/00 F Andy Messing Jr John M Wohlfarth "…. After a late-1990s economic slowdown, Asia remains heavily dependent on oil transported via tanker from the Persian Gulf. According to data from Pacific Energy Outlook, East Asia imports twice as much oil as the region produces. In addition, projections suggest that Asian demand for oil will double by 2010. To become a superpower, China must resolve its energy concerns. By threatening Taiwan, the Chinese divert Washington from their actual objective. …….. Continued arms buildup and increased defense spending reflects Beijing's desire to dominate the Pacific Rim. In a juxtaposed manner, Taipei continues to use the U.S. to achieve a stronger bargaining position for the future "one China" relationship. After seeing Hong Kong's difficult assimilation, the Taiwanese are buying time to secure the liberal principles of government their people have come to cherish. Chinese doctrine frequently has used diversions and feints to promote its foreign policy agenda. China's own economic security is best served by controlling strategic chokepoints in the South China Sea and completing its seizure of energy sources like the contested Spratly Islands, in the strategic navigation route linking the Indian and Pacific oceans……"

AFP via YAHOO! 3/19/00 "…… The tumultuous change of leadership in Taiwan has caused few ripples on the booming mainland coast opposite the island, where many Chinese were relaxed Sunday about the future. While many people in the port city of Changle in southeastern Fujian province were aware of pro-independence candidate Chen Shui-bian's landmark victory, they expressed confidence he would not dare to cause trouble. Many people in this region have relatives in Taiwan, which the Communist government in Beijing considers a rebel province, and the area has benefitted enormously from Taiwanese investment in recent years. Ahead of the elections China repeatedly threatened to invade Taiwan if it moved towards independence and Changle was awash with rumours of missile deployments and troop reinforcements around the nearby military base -- although there was no evidence……"

AFP via YAHOO! 3/19/00 "…… AFTER a week of sabre-rattling, Beijing's official media was silent on the election outlook as voters went to the polls. But much was going elsewhere _ and nowhere more so than on the Fujian coast, where troops were on high alert and on the move. As one Beijing insider put it: ``The situation for the moment could be described as internally tense and externally relaxed.'' And in Hong Kong, two pro-Beijing newspapers were reporting yesterday of mainland troops being on the move along the coast before the big day. While fighter aircraft could only be heard in cloud-heavy skies, there were tanks and military lorries seen moving along coastal highways on the eve of polling, Ta Kung Pao reported. Levels of combat readiness had also been stepped up, it was said. ….."

Chinatimes 3/19/00 "…..China enforced a virtual blackout on Taiwan's polls Saturday, but analysts warned of trouble if winner Chen Shui-bian did not immediately recognise Beijing's sovereignty over the island. Both the foreign ministry and the Taiwan Affairs Office of China's cabinet refused all comment on the poll result, and news bulletins made no mention of the elections at all. The official Xinhua news agency made the sole mention of the vote by issuing a single paragraph dispatch in the evening in English only saying the poll in "Taiwan province" was over and that Chen was leading. Meanwhile in Taipei Central Election Commission chairman Huang Shih-cheng announced that Chen had officially won with 39.3 percent of the votes cast. ......"

Reuters 3/19/00 "……Taiwan's president-elect Chen Shui-bian on Monday called for a ``peace summit'' with Beijing, and signaled a softening of a pro-independence stand by saying he was ready to discuss the issue of ``One China.'' However, he insisted that Taiwan must be treated by the Chinese mainland as an equal. ``There is nothing that we cannot talk about on the basis of equality,'' Chen told reporters. ……"

AFP via Drudge- Wash Post 3/19/00 "…….TAIPEI, Taiwan Storming the Nationalist Party's headquarters, a stone-throwing crowd demanded & and got President Lee Teng-hui's promise Sunday to quit as the party's leader, one day after its humiliating election defeat. Many of the thousands of protesters blamed Lee for fielding a weak candidate who was trounced by the opposition in Saturday's presidential election. The vote will bring to power an untested leader, Chen Shui-bian, who some fear could spark a devastating war with Taiwan's longtime rival, China..."

Agency France Press via Drudge Report 3/19/00 "…..Large numbers of Chinese fighter jets were seen heading in the direction of Taiwan following the island's election of pro-independence advocate Chen Shui-bian, a Hong Kong newspaper reported Monday. The English-language South China Morning Post quoted an unidentified witness in the southern town of Huizhou, in Guangdong province, as saying about 100 jets had flown over the town Sunday . "Every two or three minutes, a fighter jet went over our heads. This lasted for four hours non-stop," the witness was quoted by the newspaper as saying. The planes were heading north eastwards, towards China's Fujian province and Taiwan, which lies across the Taiwan Strait from Fujian. ……"

South China Morning Post 3/19/00 Jasper Becker "…… The main Communist Party newspapers only noted the election result briefly on their front pages. But a PLA-sponsored publication sold on every street corner detailed strategies to "liberate" Taiwan, even engaging the United States in a nuclear war. A 16-page publication devoted exclusively to the Taiwan issue, the Haowangjiao Weekly, outlined a series of strategies being considered to conquer Taiwan by force, including sending an armada of 200,000 fishing vessels carrying an invasion force of two million men. The Haowangjiao Weekly, printed by the Science and Technology Digest, pointed out that such a flotilla had already proved successful when communist forces crossed the Yangtze during the civil war. The publication was packed with photographs of military hardware and said China had an arsenal of secret weapons, "the most advanced in the world - including laser weapons to disable the laser guidance systems of America's F-17s". ……… "

South China Morning Post 3/19/00 Jasper Becker "…… It said the PLA had been working on a new generation of nuclear weaponry for the past 10 years based on a new theory of nuclear physics and it gave a step-by-step strategy on how China would escalate a conflict and threaten America with nuclear war. China would first try to sway public opinion in the US by making economic concessions, stepping up arms purchases from Russia and organising public demonstrations in Beijing…….."The United States will not sacrifice 200 million Americans for 20 million Taiwanese and eventually they are going to back down," it said……"

THE WASHINGTON TIMES 3/17/00 Ben Barber "…..Adm. Dennis C. Blair, commander of U.S. forces in Asia, said yesterday the United States is assessing Chinese military strength along the Taiwan Strait before deciding whether to sell advanced defense weaponry to Taiwan. "I am not recommending" any specific weapons systems, Adm. Blair said. "No decision has been made." The United States is legally bound to provide Taiwan "a sufficient means for defense" against any Chinese attempt to force reunification, Adm. Blair said at a meeting of government and private non-proliferation experts held by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The United States is assessing the level of Chinese military capability and from that will determine the level of defensive weapons Taiwan requires, he said. The admiral said China has 200 medium-range missiles opposite Taiwan and is adding about 50 each year. These are inaccurate "terror weapons" that could not target military assets, but in time would be upgraded to become more accurate….."

CNSNews.com 3/16/00 Patrick Goodenough "…….Taiwan put its armed forces on high alert Thursday ahead of Saturday's presidential election, after China's latest threat to use force against the island if it moves further toward independence. According to Asian press reports, Defense Minister Tang Fei said there had been no sign of major military activity on the communist-ruled mainland. He said the island did not seek war with China, but neither did it fear conflict. Defense Secretary William Cohen, speaking in Japan Thursday, warned Beijing not to use force against Taiwan, calling threats "counter-productive."……"

China News Agency via Chinese Information and Culture Center 3/15/00 Nelson Chung and Sofia Wu 3/17/00 "…..The commander of the US Pacific Command said on Wednesday that US Pacific forces are ready and capable of carrying out their current responsibilities under the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA). "They are capable and ready to 'resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security or social or economic system of the people of Taiwan,'" Adm. Dennis C. Blair said at a congressional hearing on the Pentagon's fiscal 2001 budget plan. Blair made the assurances in response to concern expressed by House of Representatives members from both the Republican and Democratic parties. ….."

Associated Press 3/17/00 Dirk Beveridge "…..The ruling Nationalist Party went on the attack Friday with a TV ad campaign showing a submarine prowling to the ominous sound of sonar pinging, as the screen flashed warnings about China's nuclear arsenal. The message: A victory by pro-independence candidate Chen Shui-bian could provoke an attack by China that would make the island's devastating earthquake in September seem like a minor jolt. The spot ends with the whistling sound of fireworks, then a small pop. It tells voters if they choose Nationalist candidate Lien Chan, they will hear "the sound of New Year's fireworks," not missiles. The Nationalists are trying to scare voters into thinking Chen will push Taiwan toward a formal declaration of independence - a move Beijing says will lead to war. During the last Taiwanese election, China fired nuclear-capable missiles near Taiwan, drawing U.S. naval battle groups into the region, although this time Beijing has thus far limited its campaign to a war of words. ….."

Chinatimes 3/14/00 "…… A major conflict is looming in the Taiwan Strait and the only way to avert a future Chinese attack on Taiwan is "to deter it right now," said a US expert in international studies on Sunday. Robert Kagan, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said China's White Paper on Taiwan signaled a new phase of impatience in Beijing, and it wasn't the only sign. "(Mainland Chinese) President Jiang Zemin has declared in recent months that he intends to make reunification of the motherland his legacy" and "senior Chinese military officials now speak openly about a 'fixed timetable' for reunification," Kagan said in a column in Sunday's Washington Post. Kagan said it is "unlikely" that the March 18 presidential election "will produce a government in Taiwan willing to accommodate Beijing's demands," adding that "the next Taiwanese president will probably maintain the status quo that Beijing considers unacceptable." Unless the United States accelerates its moves to help Taiwan beef up its military capability and "to convince Chinese leaders that Washington will not just twiddle its thumbs when an attack begins," a war in the Taiwan Strait is going to break out, said Kagan. ….."

CNA 3/29/00 "….The first school for the children of Taiwan businessmen living in mainland China is slated to open in Dongwan City, Guangdong Province on Sept. 1 this year, it was announced on Wednesday. The school has been accepting registrations since late February, and more than 250 children of Taiwan businessmen from Dongwan, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Huizhou, Zhuhai, Zhongshan, Shanghai, and Kunming have already applied to study at the school, according to the school's preparatory committee head, H.T. Yieh...."

The South China Morning Post 3/28/00 Willy Wo-Lap Lam "......President Jiang Zemin has indicated that if the mainland has to take military action against Taiwan, the sooner the better. A Beijing source said yesterday Beijing would make a final decision later this year on whether to use military means against the "renegade province". Since the election victory of the Democratic Progressive Party's Chen Shui-bian, Mr Jiang has presided over a number of meetings on how to speed up reunification. "To satisfy world opinion, Beijing is giving the Chen administration a grace period of a few months," the source said. "This is despite the cadres' basic distrust of Chen and his party. "The decision on whether to apply more pressure will be made after China's entry to the World Trade Organisation," the source said. ...."

Chinatimes 3/29/00 "...... (CNA) American neutron bomb inventor Sam Cohen said in a recent article that in view of the political tension across the Taiwan Strait, mainland China might use a neutron bomb against Taiwan. Judged from the political and military angles, Cohen claimed, mainland China's idea of launching an attack on Taiwan with neutron bombs is flawless. The reasons, he said, are that the opposing military personnel would die or be incapacitated by neutron radiation, while military equipment and facilities would remain undamaged. Population centers would not be targeted, he went on, and there would be no lingering radioactivity......"

Inside China Today 3/28/00 Reuters "......China is building two surface-to-air missile bases near the coastal city of Fuzhou, opposite Taiwan, part of an ongoing military buildup that worries U.S. officials, the Washington Times reported on Tuesday. The newspaper quoted unnamed U.S. intelligence officials as saying that the new bases would increase the danger of a military confrontation along the Taiwan Strait. They said the U.S. Defence Department was monitoring the buildup closely. China has long threatened invasion of the island, which it considers a renegade province. The Times quoted the U.S. officials as saying that China would also deploy additional Russian-made S-300 missiles near the coastal cities of Xiamen and Shantou in the next weeks. ....."

South China Morning Post 3/28/00 "......President Jiang Zemin has indicated that if the mainland has to take military action against Taiwan, the sooner the better. A Beijing source said yesterday Beijing would make a final decision later this year on whether to use military means against the "renegade province". Since the election victory of the Democratic Progressive Party's Chen Shui-bian, Mr Jiang has presided over a number of meetings on how to speed up reunification. "To satisfy world opinion, Beijing is giving the Chen administration a grace period of a few months," the source said. "This is despite the cadres' basic distrust of Chen and his party. "The decision on whether to apply more pressure will be made after China's entry to the World Trade Organisation," the source said......."

Newsday 3/28/00 AP "......China warned the United States Tuesday not to allow a visit by Taiwan president-elect Chen Shui-bian, saying he should not be welcomed by any country which has diplomatic relations with Beijing. U.S. Senator Frank Murkowski said last week he would support a visit by the president-elect to the United States before Chen's May 20 inauguration, when it would still be an unofficial visit. But even that would likely enrage China -- which regards Taiwan as a Chinese territory with no right to independent diplomatic relations. Sun Yuxi, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, hinted that countries which allow Chen to visit could see their ties with Beijing affected. ....."

FoxNews 4/16/00 Barry Schweid AP ".......President Clinton's decision to shelve Taiwan's request to buy four billion-dollar U.S. destroyers produced an angry reaction Tuesday from three Republican senators, including Majority Leader Trent Lott. Their statements suggested a legislative showdown with the White House loomed. But Lott made no overt move to try to force a vote on the island's defense requests. Declaring his disappointment, Lott said the Clinton administration should have done more to enhance Taiwan's security. "I hope this latest decision will not be misunderstood by Beijing's leaders as a green light for further threats against Taiwan,'' the Republican leader from Mississippi said. Accusing the administration of misrepresenting a smaller arms package it approved as robust, Sen. Jesse Helms, R-N.C., said only one of Taiwan's six major requests, Maverick missiles, was approved. In fact, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee said the administration has given Beijing "a veto over Taiwan's defense request.'' ....."

CNSNews.com 4/18/00 Patrick Goodenough "…….The Clinton administration is ignoring Taiwan's legitimate security needs by deferring a decision on selling the island nation naval destroyers and submarines, a leading member of the new president's party said Tuesday. Parris Chang, of President Chen Shui-bian's Democratic Progressive Party, told the BBC the U.S. had clearly taken the decision in an attempt not to offend Beijing. It was reported Monday that the U.S. would sell Taiwan missiles and long-range radar and provide military training, but had decided against including destroyers, submarines and anti-submarine observation planes for the present……. The key element of the withheld naval package was four warships equipped with the advanced Aegis warfare system, able to simultaneously track more than 100 land, sea and air targets, as well as Tomahawk cruise missiles like those used in the Gulf and the Balkans……"

Taipei Times 4/17/00 Pu Ta-Chung "…….Why is China so eager to see President-elect Chen Shui-bian (³¯¤ô«ó) make an official stance on the "one China principle" during his inaugural speech on May 20? Why is the the US government being overly concerned about the speech and Chen's choice of minister of foreign affairs? Why has Chen's demeanor toward Beijing and Washington since the election been so surprisingly modest? Everything is related to one factor -- the US presidential election is taking place in November of this year. China is worried that Al Gore, who remains quite friendly with China, may lose the election. If George W. Bush is elected, Beijing may well encounter US interference in the "Taiwan problem." ….."

The Associated Press 4/17/00 Barry Schweid "…… President Clinton, backed by his senior advisers, decided Monday against the sale of four Aegis destroyers to Taiwan, but approved a smaller package including long-range radar designed to detect missile launches, two senior U.S. officials said. Clinton, who was in California, acted on the recommendation of top advisers who met earlier in the day at the White House and also of Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, who was traveling in Uzbekistan, said the officials. The Pentagon had recommended that the administration put off Taiwan's request to buy new weapons, including the destroyers, submarines and anti-submarine aircraft, in order to avoid angering China, which views Taiwan as a rebellious province. ……"

Yahoo 4/12/00 "……BEIJING is prepared for a nuclear war against the United States if Washington ``would dare to stand in the way'' of China's reunification, a military-backed weekly has warned. In such a possible Sino-US war over Taiwan, Washington would be subject to tremendous losses in human casualties as well as in its global and regional interests, warned an article in the latest issue of the Military Review weekly. The magazine is an official publication with reti